My Kanal24 interview with Nataly Lutsenko, who was in Kyiv, Ukraine on11Jan25, posted here 18Jan.. I explained:
— The stepwise manner in which different Venezuelan oil basins can start being brought to market rapidly while recovery and new production can proceed to more complex and higher-investment projects over time.
Continue readingPosted in Chavez, Energy and Geopolitics, energy war, Enhanced oil production, European Union, Global Oil Market, Maracaibo, Oil Crisis, PDVSA, Putin, Russia, russia sanctions, Sanctions, Trump, U.S. oil, Ukraine, Uncategorized, US Foreign Policy, USA, Venezuela oil
Tagged Energy, geopolitics, Maduro, oil production, oil sector, OPEC, PDVSA, Putin, Russia, russia sanctions, Sanctions, Trump, Ukraine, Ukriaine war, United States, Venezuela, Venezuelan oil
Published Jan 10, 2026 – By, Brendan Cole, Senior News Reporter
Developing Venezuela’s oil industry following the removal of its leader, Nicolas Maduro, would require major legal and commercial changes, Exxon CEO Darren Woods has told President Donald Trump.
Woods gave a downbeat assessment of the viability of restoring oil production in the South American country believed to hold the world’s largest reserves, telling Trump that at the moment, the country’s industry was “uninvestable.”
Energy industry analyst, Thomas O’Donnell, told Newsweek on Saturday that one approach would be for companies to work on small projects to kickstart production before targeting the oil fields that require heavy investment.
Continue readingPublished Jan 10, 2026 – By, Brendan Cole, Senior News Reporter
Developing Venezuela’s oil industry following the removal of its leader, Nicolas Maduro, would require major legal and commercial changes, Exxon CEO Darren Woods has told President Donald Trump.
Woods gave a downbeat assessment of the viability of restoring oil production in the South American country believed to hold the world’s largest reserves, telling Trump that at the moment, the country’s industry was “uninvestable.”
Energy industry analyst, Thomas O’Donnell, told Newsweek on Saturday that one approach would be for companies to work on small projects to kickstart production before targeting the oil fields that require heavy investment.
Continue readingPosted in Chavez, Energy and Geopolitics, energy war, Enhanced oil production, Faja of the Orinoco, Global Oil Market, heavy oil, Latin America, Maduro, Maracaibo, Oil prices, Oil supply, OPEC, opec-plus, PDVSA, Russia, russia sanctions, Sanctions, The USA, Trump, U.S. oil, Uncategorized, Venezuela oil, Venezuela update
Tagged Darren Wood, Delcy Rodriguez, donald-trump, Energy, Exxon, Faja del Orinoco, geopolitics, heavy oil, Maduro, Maracaibo, news, Newsweek, oil sector, OPEC, politics, Russia, Tom O'Donnell interviews, Trump, United States, Venezuela
See especially (i) my second response re. China’s big risk regarding repayment of its $100b loans, collateralized with a promised flow of Venezuelan oil, and equally (ii) Janiv Shah’s first comment, on the more immediate China impact. It was a pleasure to be on with the well known oil expert Janiv Shah, VP RystadEnergy.
Continue readingPosted in Energy and Geostrategy, geopolitics, Global Oil Market, Hugo Chávez, Latin America, Maduro, Oil Crisis, Oil prices, Oil supply, PDVSA, Petrostate, Putin, Russia, shale oil, Trump, U.S. oil, Uncategorized, US Foreign Policy, USA, Venezuela oil
Tagged Chavez, Chavista, China, China loans, China oil, Energy, geopolitics, Global Oil Market, oil sanctions, oil sector, Russia, Trump, United States, USA, USA oil, Venezuela
I was interviewed by David Karalvanov at bTV (Bulgaria) on the US-Venezuela confrontation under Trump and Maduro (01Dec). David used excerpts for a documentary and kindly gave me the full video here. An outline of the five questions and answers is below here.
Three Asides:
David’s five questions and some of my answers:
Continue readingPosted in Chavez, Energy and Geopolitics, Global Oil Market, heavy oil, Hugo Chávez, Oil prices, Russia, russia sanctions, Sanctions, The USA, Trump, U.S. oil, Ukraine war, Uncategorized, US Foreign Policy, USA, Venezuela oil
Tagged bTV, donald-trump, drugs, emigration, geopolitics, global oil market, Latin America, Machado, Maduro, oil sector, politics, regime change, Russia, Sanctions, Tom O'Donnell interview, Trump, Ukraine war, United States, Venezuela, Venezuelan opposition
Nataly Lutsenko at Kanal24 TV in Kyiv, invited me again to an interview. We discussed, in detail, what I see as “the oil war” jointly waged by Ukraine and the USA against Russia. Each has its role:
(i) Ukraine is waging an air campaign with drones and missiles against Russian refineries, oil export terminal ports, and oil tankers. This is an audacious and expanding campaign seriously impeding Russian capacity to handle export of the oil its fields produce.
It is important to note, politically, that these attacks are assisted by USA intelligence, as reported in October by the FT. Ukraine’s intelligence chief also spoke of Ukraine’s crucial dependence on US intelligence assets on 20 December, and later on the depth. Unlike the former “oil price cap” strategy of the Biden administration and the early months of the second-Trump administration, the present, much expanded air war on Russian oil is now clearly embraced by the USA.
(ii) For its part, the USA’s role in this oil-war – along with NATO, UK, EU and G7 allies – involves increasingly harsh tariffs and sanctions against Russian oil exports.
Continue readingPosted in energy war, European Union, geopolitics, Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, Oil Crisis, Oil supply, Petrostate, Putin, Russia, russia sanctions, Sanctions, The USA, Trump, Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine war, Uncategorized, USA
Tagged Energy, geopolitics, Kanal24, NATO, negotiations, oil sanctions, oil sector, oil war, peace, peace deal, politics, Russia, tom-odonnell-interviews, Trump, Ukraine, United States, USA, War
My thanks to Tor Klaveness at Kapital, Norway’s oldest and leading, business magazine. Below is an English translation, then the Norwegian original. – Tom O’D.
“Bone-crushing” and “draconian”: The law that could choke Putin’s oil revenues
If peace talks between Ukraine and Russia break down, the US Senate is ready to pass a sanctions package that could strangle Russia’s oil exports. In that case, it could significantly strengthen the oil market.
Energy Published 29 Nov. | Paywall removed, Updated 9 Dec.
By: Tor Klaveness
“President Trump said this weekend, ‘Send me the bill.’ So we have to send him the bill to help end this war.”
This was stated by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham in a panel debate on November 19 with Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal. The debate was moderated by Clayton Seigle, a senior fellow at the think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which also organized the debate.
The bill Graham referred to is the Sanctioning Russia Act , which he is co-sponsoring with Blumenthal. The bill already has the support of 85 of the 100 US senators and would give US authorities the right to impose punitive tariffs of no less than 500 percent on countries importing Russian energy.
With a stick and a carrot
Dr. Thomas O’Donnell is an energy and geopolitical strategist, founder of GlobalBarrel.com and former global fellow at the Wilson Center in Washington, D.C. He believes Congress is now poised to give President Trump an extremely potent weapon.
The proposal is being described as “bone-crushing” and “draconian,” and is set to be voted through almost unanimously in the Senate.
Continue readingPosted in Energy and Geopolitics, Energy and Geostrategy, Energy crisis, energy war, European Union, geopolitics, Global Oil Market, norway, Oil Crisis, Oil prices, Oil supply, OPEC, opec-plus, Petrostate, Putin, Rosneft, Russia, russia sanctions, The USA, Trump, U.S. oil, Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine war, Uncategorized, USA
Tagged Energy, geopolitics, Kapital, Lukoil, norway, oil, oil sector, OPEC, Rosneft, Russia, Sanctions, Tom O'Donnell intervieews, Trump, Ukraine, United States
I was interviewed on CNN International’s “Newsroom” with host Kim Brunhuber – live, Friday, 12 Dec. 2025. The transcript is below. Kim asked about Venezuela’s oil industry, the impact of sanctions, what stricter enforcement could do to the Venezuelan economy, and what the US stands to gain if it ultimately gains greater access to the country’s oil reserves? He also wanted to know what Venezuelans are saying. / CNN says: “The show is broadcast around the world on CNN International, and in the US on our new platform All Access.”
Transcript:
0:01 I want to bring in Thomas O’Donnell, an
0:03 energy and geopolitics strategist at
0:05 GlobalBarrel.com. He’s also a former
0:07 visiting professor at the Central
0:09 University of Venezuela and he joins us
0:11 from Berlin. Thank you so much for being
0:13 here with us. Uh so this seizure, a
0:16 clear escalation here. Uh the White
0:19 House says more tanker seizures could be
0:22 coming. If that happens, I mean, what
0:23 would that do to the Venezuelan economy?
0:28 Well, there’s there’s two aspects here.
Continue readingPosted in Chavez, Energy and Geopolitics, Energy and Geostrategy, energy war, Faja of the Orinoco, geopolitics, Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, heavy oil, Hugo Chávez, Oil supply, PDVSA, Sanctions, shale oil, The USA, Trump, U.S. oil, Ukraine, Uncategorized, USA, Venezuela oil
Tagged Chavismo, donald-trump, Energy, heavy oil, Maduro, news, oil sector, Orinoco, PDVSA, politics, Sanctions, shale oil, Tom O'Donnell interview, Trump, Ukraine, United States, Venezuela, Venezuelan oil
Here is the video of our 10 Nov. event, organized by EIES (European Institute for Energy Security). Our topic was the turn in US Trump administration policy on ending Russia’s war against Ukraine and the Russian oil sector.
My sincere thanks to EIES, and especially Executive Director Albéric Mongrenier, for inviting me along with distinguished energy and geopolitics experts. (Note: EIES is affiliated with, but policy-independent of, SAFE in Washington).
Our distinguished expert panel included:
A central question we addressed was the turn in the Trump administration policy to apply significant coercive measures against the Russian oil sector to undermine the ability of the Putin government to continue its was in Ukraine. We discussed how effective the new sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil might be and what is the synergistic effect of the Ukrainian drone and missile campaign against Russian domestic refineries and oil export terminal ports.
For an update on expanded attacks on Russian Black Sea oil ports and their meaning, see the written comments accompanying my Kanal24 video interview, posted on Monday, 17 Nov. “The US & Ukraine pound Russian oil | my Kanal24, Kyiv“).
Continue readingPosted in Energy and Geopolitics, Energy and Geostrategy, Energy crisis, energy war, Euroepen Union, Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, Oil Crisis, oil price war, Oil prices, Oil supply, Petrostate, Russia, russia sanctions, Saudi Arabia, The USA, U.S. oil, Ukraine war, Uncategorized, US Foreign Policy
Tagged Energy, geopolitics, Lukoil, NATO, oil war, petrostste, politics, Putin, Rosneft, Russia, russia sanctions, Trump, Ukraine, Ukraine war, United States, USA, War
On 5 November, I told Kanal24, Kyiv that a US-Ukraine campaign to disable the Russian petrostate’s oil sector is underway. I stressed that this is a multi-spectral campaign combining (i) severe USA sanctions and secondary tariffs on Russian oil exports in parallel with (ii) Ukrainian military action on oil refineries and export-terminal ports. These attacks are known to be conducted and planned in close cooperation with USA military intelligence (FT,12 Oct.).
This means that an assessment of either aspect of this campaign on its own is inadequate. The synergy of sanctions plus military hits is the issue.
Secondary Sanctions. It has been widely recognized that the USA would need to, as promised, vigorously impose secondary tariffs on any entities that violated its recent tariff announcement. Indeed, on Sunday, President Trump lent support to a bill being drafted in Congress to hit any entity “doing business with Russia.”, not only buying its oil (i.e., “Trump says Republicans drafting bill to sanction countries that trade with Russia, Reuters. November 17). This sounds similar to the Senators Lindsey Graham (R, SC) and Richard Blumenthal’s (D Conn) so-called “bone-crushing sanctions” bill (Politico, 7 June) endorsed by 83 senators on 3 June.
The apparent aim of the port drone and missile attacks is to slash oil exports from Russia’s three or four biggest westward facing terminals. The focus thus far is on Black Sea terminals:
Continue readingPosted in drones, energy war, Global Oil Market, Russia, Sanctions, Trump, Ukraine war, Uncategorized
Tagged drone, Energy, Kanal24, news, Novorossiya, oil, oil sector, OPEC, pertrostate, politics, Putin, refineries, Russia, russian oil, Sanctions, Tom O'Donnell interview, Trump, Ukraine, United States, USA, War
You are invited to register now for Monday, 10 Nov. at 14:00 UK || 15:00 CET || 9:00 ET, an EIES Webinar. [My view: the USA, Ukraine & allies can dismantle the Russian petrostate. My posts on this are linked at the end]. I’m honored to join experts:
Register Now – Allies have so far failed to break Putin’s war machine. The EU recently agreed on a 19th round of sanctions and plans to further ramp down Russian energy supplies. But EU sanctions have shown their limits, political leaders have not been able to use Russia’s frozen assets to aid Ukraine, and Moscow’s hydrocarbons still flow into the Union and other major markets.
Washington’s and London’s most recent sanctions may change the game. As we enter another winter of war, can Europe and the United States build on hard-won Transatlantic convergence to strike a decisive blow to the engine of the Kremlin’s aggression: Russia’s oil exports? Can the EU agree to and successfully manage the phaseout of Russian oil and gas?
Continue readingPosted in Energy and Geopolitics, Energy and Geostrategy, Energy crisis, energy war, European Union, geopolitics, Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, Uncategorized
Tagged China, EIES, energy war, EU sanctions, geopolitics, NATO, oil sector, OPEC, OPEC+, politics, Putin, Russia, Sanctions, Saudi Arabia, Trump, Ukraine, Ukraine war, United States, War
The ceasefire Trump brokered will hopefully end this “12-Day War.” I want to discuss here why this war did not trigger a global energy crisis. [Here’s what I said about this to Al Jazeera last week, in the last five paragraphs. A PDF is also embedded below. I’ll also post a TRT-London show on Iran’s nuclear strategy, recorded Tuesday, soon.]
To assess the risk to energy supplies, understanding the aims of the combatants is key. Throughout this war, it was the USA-Israel side setting the agenda, and there were two strategic aims they could pursue. One was to “only” destroy Iran’s nuclear program and its existing conventional regional power-projection capacities. The second was to go beyond this to undermine the viability of the Islamic Republic, up to forcing a regime change. Why do I say this?
Continue readingPosted in Energy and Geopolitics, Energy and Geostrategy, Energy crisis, energy war, gaza, Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, Iran, Iran nuclear, Iran sanctions, LNG, natural gas, negotiations, nuclear energy, Nuclear power, oil, Oil Crisis, Oil prices, Oil supply, OPEC, opec-plus, Persian Gulf, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, The USA, Uncategorized
Tagged 12-day war, bombing, Energy, geopolitics, Iran, iranian nuclear, Israel, israeli-iran war, Middle East, missiles, Netanyahu, news, nuclear program, oil sector, Persian Gulf, politics, straights of hormuz, Trump, United States
Wednesday, I was quoted repeatedly in Newsweek (USA) by Brendan Cole (London) 23 April: “Russian Economy Dealt Blow With Slumping Oil Prices,” And, Below: a Monday audio of my related analysis.
This will only be done if Trump decides he needs to use harsh coercion to force Putin into an acceptable peace deal with Ukraine, AND if Trump were willing to impose lasting harm on the older Russian oil fields.
Posted in Energy crisis, energy war, European Union, Germany, Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, Oil Crisis, Oil prices, Oil supply, Putin, Russia, The USA, Trade policy, Trump, Ukraine, Uncategorized, USA
Tagged geopolitics, Newsweek, oil, oil prices, oil sanctions, oil sector, peace deal, Russia, russian sanctions, tom-odonnell-interviews, Trump, Ukraine, Ukraine war
My long print interview at Lithuania’s LRT [Lithuanian PDF | English PDF] with Aleksandra Ketlerienė, deputy editor-in-chief of Lithuania’s LRT.lt, published 7January. We spoke in Warsaw, 19 November. My thanks to Aleksandra for her insightful questioning and editorial care. We discussed:
Posted in China, Ehergiewende, Energiewende, Energy and Environment, Energy and Geopolitics, Energy crisis, energy transition, energy war, EU gas, Euroepen Union, gas crisis, Gazprom, gazprom, geopolitics, German deindustrialization, German Green Party, Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, green deal, hydrogen, Interview, Lithuania, LNG, natural gas, Nord Stream, Nord Stream 2, nuclear energy, OPEC, opec-plus, Poland, Renewables, Russia, Sanctions, Saudi Arabia, The USA, Three Seas, Trump, U.S. oil, Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine war, Uncategorized, USA, War
Tagged China, Energy, energy war, EU energy policies, geopolitics, Germany, green deal, Lithuania, LNG, LRT.Lt, oil sector, OPEC, Russia, Ukraine, United States
At first, we focused on IEA warnings of a possible EU winder gas shortage due to supply-and-demand mismatches. I agree and expand on the IEA points.
Second, I explained that if Israel retaliates against Iran so strongly that it threatens the regimes survival, or is seen as intending to provoke regime change, then the Iranian leadership will have “nothing to lose” by in-turn escalating to the maximum. Aside from unleashing the maximum response of its proxies surrounding Israel, Tehran’s most potent weapon would be to spark a global oil and gas crisis.
Consider oil: Iran can either shut down the Straights of Hormuz (or simply make them unsafe for tankers) and/or, it can use missiles and drones to destroy significant parts of Saudi, UAE and other Gulf oil facilities, including perhaps even Azerbaijan’s as some Iranian propagandists have threatened.
Consider natural gas: Shutting the Straights or directly hitting Qatar’s massive LNG exports infrastructure would immediately stop Qatari LNG exports. As the world’s second largest LNG exporter, this would immediately cause a separate global natural gas crisis.
Continue readingPosted in Al Watan, Cairo,, Energy and Geopolitics, Energy and Geostrategy, Energy crisis, energy war, EU gas, Euroepen Union, gas, gas crisis, geopolitics, Global Oil Market, international relations, Interview, Iran, Iran nuclear, Iran sanctions, Israel, LNG, natural gas, oil, Oil Crisis, Oil supply, OPEC, opec-plus, Qatar, Russia, Sanctions, Saudi Arabia, The USA, Ukraine, Ukraine war, Uncategorized, USA
Tagged Al Watan, Biden, Energy, iea, Iran, Israel, Middle East, natural gas, Nuclear, oil, oil market, Russia, straights of hormuz, Tom O'Donnell interview, Ukraine, USA, War
Will Israel hit Iranian oil infrastructure? And, what part of it? To what effect on markets, and geopolitics, (i.e., Mideast, OPEC, Russia and Ukraine war)? A video report.
MAIN POINTS (see transcript):
1. What if Israel hits Iran oil infrastructure in retaliation for missile strikes on Tel Aviv on Tuesday night? 1.a. The difference effects of hitting Iranian refineries vs oil export terminals In itself, neither target would make big difference in the market. The market would immediately jump, of course, but in principle the effect would be small. 1b OPEC+ and Western Hemisphere have plenty of spare capacity.
2. Consider Saudi market tactics … reportedly they want to now go for share over price support, as price support is failing after well over a year of output cuts (about 6 mb/d). Note: Shortly after this recording the Saudis repudiated the WSJ that reported the switch in tactics to defending share. Likely they’ll now want to wait and see what happens to Iranian exports, or if this Israel-Iran tit-for-tat gets out of hand.
Continue readingPosted in Energy and Geopolitics, Global Oil Market, Iran, Israel, oil, Oil prices, OPEC, opec-plus, Persian Gulf, Putin, Russia, Sanctions, Saudi Arabia, The USA, Ukraine, Ukraine war, Uncategorized
Tagged Energy, geopolitics, global oil market, Iran, Israel, Isreal, Middle East, oil, oil price caps, oil sector, OPEC, Russia, Tom O'Donnell interview, Ukraine, Warsaw Old Town, Warsaw Security Forum, WSF2024
The Global Barrel 