Tag Archives: oil price cap

My DW live: Russia ban on oil sales to price-cap nations has no significant effect. Russia will be selling less oil over time & sanctions complicate shipping insurance. Meanwhile, Ukraine-allies’ price cap encourages India & China to demand lower prices from Russia without officially joining cap.

The title and brief interview is rather self-explanatory. The interview starts after a brief intro, after 30 seconds.

Thanks to Daniel Winters, German national broadcaster Deutsche Welle’s (DW.de) English language Business News host for this invitation. We spoke, in Berlin, only a few hours after the cap was announced in Moscow.

My Al Jazeera: Putin’s decree banning oil sales under the cap is “a bit of bravado.” – The EU/USA can squeeze Russia by “stepwise lowering the cap” & “bringing other, new oil online.”

Al Jazeera asked for an online commentary within an hour of Putin’s announcement. These were my initial thoughts.

I also spoke to AJ Arabic, and a couple hours later, on Germany’s Deutsche Welle’s English language service elaborated on these points (see video, next blog post).

The question is where will the EU-USA-g7 western alliance go from here. If they stepwise lower the cap, and also work hard to get new oil online (from OPEC and the USA), they can gradually keep lowering Russia’s market share. However, as I indicated, the coming recession – esp. in Europe – and the uncertainties of Chinese demand as it exits COVID shutdowns in early 2023, complicate calculations of whether the globala oil market will be short or long on supplies and if the price will spike or not. I said this will be “a chess game.”

Comments are most welcomed. Tom O’D.

My Aljazeera [English] Today’s start: EU sanctions Russian imports & G7-EU price-cap. As USA planned: no market shock.

FIRST: Here’s my AM Al Jazeera-ENGLISH), today 05Dec22. [About 30s. at start is lost]

SECOND: Here is my ENGLISH AUDIO of my AM AL Jazeera-Arabic interview

English Audio above,

EU sets $60 Russian-oil-price cap. What now? [My Al Jazeera & Asharq (Blmbrg) interviews]

FIRST: Al Jazeera, 10:05 AM, 02.12.22 CET, Berlin & Doha: — English audio below, then Arabic video.

SECOND: Asharq (exclusive Bloomberg affiliate, Gulf) , about 10:00 PM, 02.12.22 CET, Berlin & Doha — English Audio below, then Arabic video.

My Al Jazeera: EU debates where to set Russian oil price cap. Over time this price “will be lowered as [new oil] comes online,” shrinking Russia’s market. “The Americans just don’t want a shock removal.”

English Audio above — Arabic video below

This interview (Arabic video; English audio above) was recorded the evening of 29nov22 as the EU struggled over how low to set the price cap.

Soon, it will be agreed, and will gradually become devastating for Russia.

As new non-Russian oil resources are developed (e.g., in Guyana, Suriname, UAE, Iraqi and other fields) and/or oil fields come back online (e.g., Venezuela, Libya, …), the EU and G7 will feel confident to further lower the price further and further below the price of Brent and WTI crude.

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