Credit: CNNMoney, 9 August 2016
Mr. Trump promises he’d use the USA’s shale-oil revolution to deliver “complete” independence from foreign oil, telling voters in May: “Imagine a world in which our foes and the oil cartels (sic) can no longer use energy as a weapon. Wouldn’t that be nice?” But, he is confusing two quite distinct things:
“Energy independence” – in the sense of the USA producing more oil than the country consumes – is indeed possible, even “tantalizingly close” as this CNNMoney article (Aug. 9, 2016, by Matt Egan) makes clear, citing myself and other experts. For clarity, I’ll call this “net oil-exporter status.”
However, Donald Trump asks us to “imagine” he can use this net oil exporter status, to make the US independent of the global oil market and oil in geopolitics where our “foes” and “cartels” have leverage. Continue reading
Posted in Energy and Geopolitics, Energy and Geostrategy, Gas globalization, Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, international relations, Iran sanctions, Iraq, Iraqi oil, Libya, oil, Oil prices, Oil supply, OPEC, Resource conflicts, Russia, Sanctions, Saudi Arabia, shale gas, shale oil, The USA, U.S. oil, Ukraine, Uncategorized
Tagged Ali Al-Naimi, Energy, geopolitics, Iran, Iraq, Middle East, natural gas, Obama, oil sector, OPEC, Persian Gulf, United States
Here’s my latest at Berlin Policy Journal (DGAP): With Nord Stream 2, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is nearing his goal of cutting Ukraine out of the gas supply picture. October 20, 2015
On 18 June, during the annual St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, an agreement was signed to build a controversial new “Nord Stream 2” pipeline under the Baltic Sea that would go directly from Russia to northern Germany, with a capacity of 55 billion cubic meters (bcm). The project, which consists of two segments that would run along the same route as the existing two segments of the 55 bcm Nord Stream line, completed in 2011, has met with strong opposition from energy officials in Brussels, as well as leaders in Ukraine and some other EU states.
Indeed, the agreement between Russia’s Gazprom and a consortium of German, Austrian, French,, and Anglo-Dutch companies came as a surprise. After all, in January 2015 Gazprom announced it had abandoned the project, blaming both the falling price of gas over the previous year and anti-monopoly restrictions in the EU’s Third Energy Package, which prohibit suppliers of gas from also owning pipelines delivering it. This provision has prevented Gazprom from ever filling the original North Stream more than half way. In retrospect, the sudden signing of a Nord Stream 2 agreement only six months after the project was supposedly abandoned, plus the fact that the consortium foresees a quick start reveals the prior cancellation to have been a political ruse. Continue reading
Posted in Energy and Geopolitics, Energy and Geostrategy, Euroepen Union, France, Germany, international relations, LNG, Putin, Resource conflicts, Russia, Sanctions, shale gas, The USA, Trade and Commerce, Ukraine
Tagged Berlin, Brussels, Business and Economy, Energy, European Union, geopolitics, Germany, natural gas, Putin, United States, USA
Merkel and Obama answer questions. 6 June 2014 [Denver Post]
During April and May, I interviewed over a dozen Washington-based experts in European energy and geopolitics. My report on these interviews–along with some policy proposals in light of Brussels’ “institutional incapacities” and the “fundamental contradictions” of German leadership–is here: [PDF with a Table of Contents for navigation]
or at the AICGS website
This work was conducted as a resident fellow of the AICGS (American Institute of Contemporary German Studies) in Washington, DC and supported by a generous grant from the German Academic Exchange Office (DAAD) with additional support from the Foreign Office. My thanks to the AICGS for their collegial support and warm hospitality.
Next, the plan is to interview in Berlin and perhaps Brussels energy experts and officials for their viewpoints on European energy vulnerabilities and on their work with the U.S. side.
Posted in AICGS, Alternative energy, Energiewende, Energy and Environment, Energy and Geopolitics, Energy and Geostrategy, Euroepen Union, Germany, Global Oil system, international relations, Putin, Resource conflicts, Russia, Sanctions, The USA
Tagged Berlin, Energy, Europe, European Union, geopolitics, Germany, natural gas, United States, Washington
German Chancellor Merkel listens to Russian President Putin [Photo: dw.de 29.4.14]
Throughout April and May I’m researching US Expert Perspectives on German [and EU] Energy Vulnerabilities
– as a visiting fellow of the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies
(AICGS) in Washington, DC, funded by the German DAAD
. You can read the proposal below. But, first, I’d like to ask Global Barrel readers for two things:
(1) Is there anyone you feel I should interview here in Washington–the idea is to interview US energy experts, government officials and business people?
(2) What is your opinion of German and EU energy policies and their geopolitical implications. This includes issues ranging from German/EU dependence on Russian gas, the Ukraine and Turkey as gas-transit states, the new European “Energy Union,” the German Energiewende, and more—no matter on which side of the Atlantic you live.
[I’ve deleted the names of people I propose to interview, as not all will agree to have their remarks made public. I’m happy to keep opinions private and use them in general summaries of my findings.]
Posted in Energiewende, Energy and Environment, Energy and Geopolitics, Energy and Geostrategy, Euroepen Union, Germany, Global Oil Market, international relations, LNG, Putin, Resource conflicts, Russia, Sanctions, shale gas, The USA, U.S. oil, Ukraine, Uncategorized
Tagged Energiewende, Energy, Energy security, European Union, geopolitics, Germany, natural gas, USA
Falling oil prices are not a US-EU-Saudi plot against Russia, Iran and Venezuela… though their effect is certainly not unwelcomed..Foto: REUTERS/Jim Bourg
[Printed in IP Journal, German Council on Foreign Affairs] Pin-pointing the reason for the dramatic – and continuing – fall in the price of oil is relatively easy: OPEC held its 166th conference in late-November 2014 to decide on a strategy to address oil prices, which had been falling at five to ten percent per month since July. Rather than pursue a production cut
Posted in Chavez, Energy and Geopolitics, Euroepen Union, Global Oil system, international relations, Iran nuclear, Oil prices, Oil supply, OPEC, PDVSA, Persian Gulf, Putin, Resource conflicts, Russia, Sanctions, Saudi Arabia, The USA
Tagged Ali Al-Naimi, Business and Economy, Chavez, Energy, geopolitics, Iran, Middle East, oil sector, OPEC, Petróleos de Venezuela, Rafael Ramírez, Saudi Arabia, United States, Venezuela, Washington
A wide-ranging interview on the “perfect storm” of low prices from low demand plus rising production, the Saudi market strategy and some geopolitical implications.
Posted in Aramco, Energy and Geopolitics, Energy and Geostrategy, Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, international relations, Iran sanctions, Iraqi oil, Libya, Oil prices, Oil supply, OPEC, Resource conflicts, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabit, shale oil, U.S. oil, Uncategorized
Tagged Ali Al-Naimi, Energy, geopolitics, Iraq, oil sector, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Saudi market strategy
If you are in Washington, DC, this historical overview of the US-Iran Crisis and the role of oil might be of interest:
Posted in Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, international relations, Iran nuclear, Iran sanctions, Iraq, negotiations, Obama, P5+1, Persian Gulf, Resource conflicts, Rouhani, Sanctions, Saudi Arabia, Uncategorized
Tagged DC, Energy, historical overview, Iran, Iraq, Middle East, OPEC, Washington