Credit: CNNMoney, 9 August 2016
Mr. Trump promises he’d use the USA’s shale-oil revolution to deliver “complete” independence from foreign oil, telling voters in May: “Imagine a world in which our foes and the oil cartels (sic) can no longer use energy as a weapon. Wouldn’t that be nice?” But, he is confusing two quite distinct things:
“Energy independence” – in the sense of the USA producing more oil than the country consumes – is indeed possible, even “tantalizingly close” as this CNNMoney article (Aug. 9, 2016, by Matt Egan) makes clear, citing myself and other experts. For clarity, I’ll call this “net oil-exporter status.”
However, Donald Trump asks us to “imagine” he can use this net oil exporter status, to make the US independent of the global oil market and oil in geopolitics where our “foes” and “cartels” have leverage. Continue reading
Posted in Energy and Geopolitics, Energy and Geostrategy, Gas globalization, Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, international relations, Iran sanctions, Iraq, Iraqi oil, Libya, oil, Oil prices, Oil supply, OPEC, Resource conflicts, Russia, Sanctions, Saudi Arabia, shale gas, shale oil, The USA, U.S. oil, Ukraine, Uncategorized
Tagged Ali Al-Naimi, Energy, geopolitics, Iran, Iraq, Middle East, natural gas, Obama, oil sector, OPEC, Persian Gulf, United States
CNN 20 July 2016
The oil market remains glutted, with price in the mid-$40’s. Despite furtive hopes over recent weeks by the business press about “imminent re-balancing” of global supply v. demand and about “draw downs” of record-high global storage inventories, data reveal only incremental re-balancing has occurred since fall of 2014 when this all began. (And, from November 2014, the Saudi’s responded by fighting for their market-share rather than for boosting price, which would have been impossible for OPEC to do on its own given the huge supply glut.)
Posted in Energy and Geopolitics, Gaddafi, Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, Libya, Oil prices, Oil supply, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Uncategorized
Tagged Libya, Middle East, oil market, oil prices, oil sector, OPEC, Saudi Arabia
Presidents Rouhani of Iran and Putin of Russia holding discussions
(AICGS Analysis, by Tom O’Donnell) Since Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, decided to annex Crimea and back east Ukrainian separatists with troops, many have worried he might use his “energy weapon” to counter U.S.-EU sanctions, as Russia supplies around a third of the EU’s natural gas imports. But what about Russian retaliation in the oil sector?
That’s hard to imagine. While gas is marketed in bi-lateral, pipeline-mediated relationships, oil is not. It’s liquid, fungible, and marketed in a unified open market—“the global barrel” [and name of this blog, T.O’D.]—which means there are no bi-lateral oil dependencies.
So, when EU leaders were cajoled by Germany’s Angela Merkel into joining the United States in applying sanctions, Russia could do little to retaliate from within the oil sector. In reality, it is the EU and the U.S., not Russia, that have an “oil weapon” in hand. And, the flurry of Russian oil diplomacy with OPEC, Iran and China over the past couple of weeks has a distinct whiff of desperation to it. Continue reading
Posted in AICGS, Aramco, China, Energy and Geopolitics, Energy and Geostrategy, Euroepen Union, Gas globalization, gas internationalization, Germany, Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, international relations, Iran nuclear, Iran sanctions, negotiations, Obama, Oil prices, OPEC, Putin, Rouhani, Russia, Sanctions, Saudi Arabia, shale oil, The USA, Ukraine, Venezuela oil
Tagged Ali Al-Naimi, Berlin, China, European Union, geopolitics, Germany, Iran, Middle East, natural gas, oil sector, OPEC, Putin, Sanctions against Iran, Saudi Arabia, United States, Venezuela, Vladimir Putin
Falling oil prices are not a US-EU-Saudi plot against Russia, Iran and Venezuela… though their effect is certainly not unwelcomed..Foto: REUTERS/Jim Bourg
[Printed in IP Journal, German Council on Foreign Affairs] Pin-pointing the reason for the dramatic – and continuing – fall in the price of oil is relatively easy: OPEC held its 166th conference in late-November 2014 to decide on a strategy to address oil prices, which had been falling at five to ten percent per month since July. Rather than pursue a production cut
Posted in Chavez, Energy and Geopolitics, Euroepen Union, Global Oil system, international relations, Iran nuclear, Oil prices, Oil supply, OPEC, PDVSA, Persian Gulf, Putin, Resource conflicts, Russia, Sanctions, Saudi Arabia, The USA
Tagged Ali Al-Naimi, Business and Economy, Chavez, Energy, geopolitics, Iran, Middle East, oil sector, OPEC, Petróleos de Venezuela, Rafael Ramírez, Saudi Arabia, United States, Venezuela, Washington
If you are in Washington, DC, this historical overview of the US-Iran Crisis and the role of oil might be of interest:
Posted in Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, international relations, Iran nuclear, Iran sanctions, Iraq, negotiations, Obama, P5+1, Persian Gulf, Resource conflicts, Rouhani, Sanctions, Saudi Arabia, Uncategorized
Tagged DC, Energy, historical overview, Iran, Iraq, Middle East, OPEC, Washington
Kiss between Rafsanjani and Saudi ambassador stirs controversy Former Iranian President, Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani (R) exchanges greetings with the new Saudi Arabian ambassador to Iran, Abdulrahman Bin Groman Shahri in Tehran, Al Monitor, April 22, 2014. (photo by Twitter/ISNA)
Appreciation: I am honored to again be invited by my Iranian colleagues in New York, Professors Reza Ghorashi, Hamidah Zangeneh and Hamid Sedghi, to join this panel and discuss the geopolitics of US-Iranian relations. And, my thanks to Prof. Sedghi for reading my paper as I am teaching in Berlin and cannot be with you today. I only ask that those who dislike my message, kindly refrain from shooting the messenger.
The US-Iran nuclear confrontation finally appears close to resolution. This is because both Presidents Obama and Rouhani desire a diplomatic solution, and both countries need to move on. With such an agreement, it is possible that relations will slowly become normalized.
Of particular note—as a direct consequence—are the recent secret negotiations between Iran and Saudi Arabia towards a rapprochement. These were initially facilitated by Oman (e.g. see reports here, here, and here). Until very recently the Saudis had remained fiercely opposed to any US deal with Iran. However, the Saudi’s are realists, and know when it is time to adapt. Figure 1. is a photo of kisses exchanged on 22 April between ex-President Rafsanjani of Iran and King Abdullah’s ambassador to Iran, which caused quite a stir in the region. Agreements reached in these recently revealed negotiations have already significantly affected the presidential-succession crisis in Lebanon, sectarian conflicts in Iraq, and the conflict in Yemen. Next the two sides are expected to negotiate regarding their interests in the Syrian conflict.
In addition, the nature of the US-Saudi relationship is changing, transferring much more responsibility on the Kingdom and its Gulf partners for their own defense–albeit strongly supported with US weapons and logistics. This is part of the US disengagement from direct regional interventions, which will be significantly furthered by a successful US-Iran agreement (e.g., see here and here, and this report on Saudi defense buildup from Balfour at Harvard).
How are these new developments to be understood? Continue reading
Posted in Energy and Geopolitics, Energy and Geostrategy, Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, international relations, Iran nuclear, Iran sanctions, Iraq, Iraqi oil, negotiations, Obama, OPEC, P5+1, Persian Gulf, Rouhani, Sanctions, Saudi Arabia, Syria, The USA, U.S. oil, Uncategorized
Tagged Energy, Hassan Rouhani, Iran, Iraq, Middle East, Obama, oil sector, OPEC, Persian Gulf, Saudi, Saudi Arabia, Washington
Note: These “USA Oil Seminar” posts are extra readings for my students to better understand how US energy policy is developed and to hear the views of US experts. The seminar is: “The Global Oil System & US Policy” at JFK Institute of FU-Berlin.
- This Friday, watch live (or the recording later on): Is the U.S. a Rising Energy Superpower? Implications for Global Markets and Asia, the Middle East, Russia, and Europe. CSIS upcoming talk by Fereidun Fesharaki. FRIDAY, MAY 16, 2014 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM . Moderated by David Pumphrey.
- Read the paper: Fueling a New Order? The New Geopolitical and Security Consequences of Energy |April 15, 2014. By: Bruce Jones, David Steven and Emily O’Brien. Brookings Institute; Washington, DC.
BACKGROUND: This week, the class reading assignments are a couple conference papers I wrote a few years ago on the history and structure of today’s global oil system, and how it grew to replace the neo-colonial oil system. Continue reading
Posted in China, Energy and Geopolitics, Energy and Geostrategy, Euroepen Union, Gas globalization, Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, international relations, Latin America, LNG, Oil course, Oil prices, Oil supply, OPEC, Persian Gulf, Resource conflicts, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Seminar, shale gas, shale oil, The USA, Tight oil, Trade and Commerce, U.S. oil, unconventional energy
Tagged Bruce Jones, Business and Economy, China, David Pumphrey., David Steven, Energy, Fereidun Fesharaki, Global Oil System, Iran, Iraq, Latin America, Middle East, oil sector, OPEC, Persian Gulf, Saudi, Saudi Arabia, South China Sea, United States, Washington
Note: I’m teaching a post-graduate course “The Global Oil System & US Policy” at JFK Institute of Freie U. in Berlin. In order to give students a feel for how US energy policy is developed–and to see the views of important US actors–I’m sending them frequent e-mails with supplemental readings and videos from US think tanks, US government offices and from the US media on energy topics.
These are not my own in-depth analysis like I usually post on GlobalBarrel.com. However I think they are worthwhile sharing with especially non-USA followers of my blog. I’ll title these posts “USA OIL” plus a number to label them). I hope these are useful. Here’s today’s ‘optional material’ I sent to my students:
How is US energy policy developed? You might find this video of interest.
Some background: The CSIS (Center for Study of International Security) is a non-partisan (i.e., not Democratic or Republican) think tank in Washington, DC. It performs an important role in US foreign policy. Continue reading
Posted in Energiewende, Energy and Environment, Energy and Geopolitics, Energy and Geostrategy, Euroepen Union, European Union, Germany, Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, international relations, Iran nuclear, Oil course, Persian Gulf, Putin, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabit, The USA, Trade and Commerce, Trade policy, U.S. oil, Ukraine, Uncategorized, unconventional energy
Tagged Beijing, Berlin, China, CSIS, Energy, energy issues, foreign policy, Germany, Iran, JFK Institute of Freie U., Middle East, Obama, oil sector, OPEC, Petróleos de Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, United States, US energy policy, Washington, Zbigniew Brzezinski
During Spring 2014, I’m teaching a post-graduate seminar in Berlin on the USA and the global market-centered oil system (a.k.a.”The Global Barrel”)–the syllabus sketch is below here.
While I’ve often taught seminars on “the Geopolitics of Global Oil,” the JFK Institute at Berlin’s Freie Universität had a special request: they would like their students to learn “how these policies are decided in the USA.”
For an American energy “expert”, the how of the USA’s policy-decision process is fairly familiar. However, not only for German students, but also for most US citizens, this process–whose outcome has such a profound impact on the entire world– indeed seems at best rather opaque, and, at worst, like an unseemly, vested-interest-driven and hopelessly partisan process. Continue reading
Posted in Energy and Environment, Energy and Geopolitics, Energy and Geostrategy, Euroepen Union, Germany, Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, heavy oil, Institutions and rule of law, international relations, Latin America, Oil course, Oil prices, Oil supply, OPEC, Peak Oil, Resource conflicts, Saudi Arabia, Seminar, South China Sea, The USA, Tight oil, Trade and Commerce, Trade policy
Tagged Berlin, Business and Economy, China, Energy, JFK Institute at Berlin, Middle East, oil sector, OPEC, post-graduate seminar, Saudi, Saudi Arabia, United States, Washington
August 3, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (third left) gives letter of appointment to new president Rohani (third right). by: Sanlian Life, Beijing
What does H. Rouhani’s election mean for the Iran nuclear crisis? What separates the US and Iran in negotiations? What’s the role of oil?
The Beijing-based weekly, SanLian Lifeweek, interviewed me several times in recent months on the US-Iran crisis (also on Iranian-Egyptian relations, the South China Sea disputes, and Russia’s trade surge in Latin America). Below are their three articles on US-Iran relations quoting me and other experts. Since these are in Chinese (my name O’Donnell appears as “奥唐奈”), I’m including my written English answers to their questions.
(1a) Chinese: “Iran’s new president: US-Iran talks turnaround and challenges” P20-21观察 3 August 2013
(1b) My English answers (full text):
Q (Sanlian Lifeweek): When election has just ended, many assumed that Rohani’s win will possibly bring a breakthrough in Iran-U.S. relations. Recently, with him showing the intention of appointing Mohammed Javad Zarif, who many of us know well from his days in New York as the Iranian ambassador to the United Nations, as the new foreign minister, some believe that US-Iranian negotiation is now realistic for the first time in many years.
Do you agree with this comment? If not, what kind of difficulties do you think Rohani will be facing domestically in seeking moderate U.S. policies? Continue reading
Posted in China, international relations, Iran nuclear, Iran sanctions, negotiations, Obama, Oil supply, OPEC, P5+1, Persian Gulf, Rouhani, South China Sea, The USA, Uncategorized
Tagged Hassan Rouhani, Iran, Middle East, Persian Gulf, Rouhani, Sanlian Lifeweek, South China Sea, supreme leader ayatollah ali khamenei, United States, US-Iran