FIRST: Here’s my AM Al Jazeera-ENGLISH), today 05Dec22. [About 30s. at start is lost]
SECOND: Here is my ENGLISH AUDIO of my AM AL Jazeera-Arabic interview
FIRST: Here’s my AM Al Jazeera-ENGLISH), today 05Dec22. [About 30s. at start is lost]
SECOND: Here is my ENGLISH AUDIO of my AM AL Jazeera-Arabic interview
FIRST: Al Jazeera, 10:05 AM, 02.12.22 CET, Berlin & Doha: — English audio below, then Arabic video.
SECOND: Asharq (exclusive Bloomberg affiliate, Gulf) , about 10:00 PM, 02.12.22 CET, Berlin & Doha — English Audio below, then Arabic video.
This interview (Arabic video; English audio above) was recorded the evening of 29nov22 as the EU struggled over how low to set the price cap.
Soon, it will be agreed, and will gradually become devastating for Russia.
As new non-Russian oil resources are developed (e.g., in Guyana, Suriname, UAE, Iraqi and other fields) and/or oil fields come back online (e.g., Venezuela, Libya, …), the EU and G7 will feel confident to further lower the price further and further below the price of Brent and WTI crude.Continue reading
This interview with Artur Ciechanowich (Polish Associated Press-PAP, Brussels) appeared on Sunday, 25 November 2022 in several Polish press, TV and radio outlets (links below this post). Polish & English (via Google Translate) versions follow:
ENGLISH – via Google Translate
Europe without gas and oil from Russia? An expert gives a possible date
If the European Union does not bow to the Russian energy attack, it may completely replace gas and oil imports from this country with raw materials from other sources within four to six years, said Thomas O’Donnell, an energy market analyst and lecturer at a university in Berlin …..
The question of replacing gas and oil imports from Russia
However, he does not hide that before this happens, citizens of EU countries will have to go through a more difficult period. “This is an energy war, and in a war both sides suffer – consumers and businesses in the EU will suffer. It will take at least four years to implement huge new LNG export projects from the US and Qatar, he cautions, adding that the EU will also need to receive as much gas as possible from Algeria, Egypt and Norway.
He points out that, therefore, Germany has repealed the regulations requiring the maintenance of a minimum temperature in homes, and in some EU countries there are debates about power cuts for citizens. – Europe has become dependent not only on Russian gas, but also on completely unpredictable wind energy. If the wind is weak – as in the 2020-21 season – combined with the lack of appropriate transmission networks and the lack of technical capacity to store electricity on a large scale, it can mean a disaster. These are the facts. In times of war, citizens must know the whole truth, the expert argues.
He emphasizes that Russia is waging an energy war against Europe in order to break its solidarity towards Ukraine. – In the US and Qatar, but also in Norway, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Israel, Egypt and so on, there are plenty of new gas reserves, financing opportunities, technologies and functioning markets. In four to six years, Europe’s dependence on Russia will be completely replaced by imports from other directions. This also applies to crude oil. Russia, meanwhile, will be reduced from an energy superpower to an OPEC second or third tier country, concludes O’Donnell.
TVN24 live – watch on TVN24 GO
The material is part of the TVN24 GO website
Main photo source: Marcin Bielecki/PAP
POLISH – as from PAP
Europa bez gazu i ropy z Rosji? Ekspert podaje możliwy termin
Jeżeli Unia Europejska nie ugnie się przed rosyjskim atakiem energetycznym, to w czasie od 4 do 6 lat może całkowicie zastąpić import gazu i ropy naftowej z tego kraju surowcami z innych kierunków – stwierdził Thomas O’Donnell, analityk rynku energetycznego i wykładowca na prywatnej berlińskiej uczelni ….
Kwestia zastąpienia importu gazu i ropy z Rosji
Nie ukrywa jednak, że zanim to się stanie, to obywatele państw Unii będą musieli przejść przez trudniejszy okres. – To wojna energetyczna, a na wojnie obie strony ponoszą ofiary – ucierpią konsumenci i firmy w UE. Co najmniej cztery lata zajmie wdrożenie ogromnych nowych projektów eksportu LNG z USA i Kataru – zastrzega, dodając, że UE będzie musiała otrzymywać jak najwięcej gazu także z Algierii, Egiptu i Norwegii.
Zwraca uwagę, że w związku z tym, Niemcy uchylili przepisy nakazujące utrzymywanie w domach minimalnej temperatury, a w niektórych krajach Unii toczą się debaty na temat przerw w dostawach prądu dla obywateli. – Europa uzależniła się nie tylko od rosyjskiego gazu, ale postawiła też na całkowicie nieprzewidywalną energię wiatrową. Jeśli wiatr będzie słaby – jak w sezonie 2020-21 – to w połączeniu z brakiem odpowiednich sieci przesyłowych i brakiem technicznych możliwości magazynowania prądu na wielką skalę, może to oznaczać katastrofę. Takie są fakty. W czasie wojny obywatele muszą znać całą prawdę – przekonuje ekspert.
Podkreśla, że Rosja prowadzi wojnę energetyczną przeciwko Europie, aby rozbić jej solidarność wobec Ukrainy. – W USA i Katarze, ale też w Norwegii, Algierii, Azerbejdżanie, Izraelu, Egipcie i tak dalej, istnieje mnóstwo nowych rezerw gazu, możliwości finansowania, technologii i funkcjonujących rynków. Za cztery do sześciu zależność Europy od Rosji zostanie całkowicie zastąpiona importem z innych kierunków. Dotyczy to również ropy naftowej. Rosja tymczasem zostanie zredukowana z supermocarstwa energetycznego do drugoligowego lub trzecioligowego kraju OPEC – konkluduje O’Donnell.
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Materiał jest częścią serwisu TVN24 GO
Źródło zdjęcia głównego: Marcin Bielecki/PAP
Ekspert: Polska jest dobrze przygotowana na odcięcie dostaw gazu z Rosji, … sprawę z takiego niebezpieczeństwa – mówi w rozmowie z PAP Thomas O’Donnell, …Open document settingsOpen publish panel
30 blocks selected.
Above is a video of my talk (in English) in Doha, Qatar at the 9th Annual Gulf Studies Forum, on the theme: ““The Impact of the Ukraine Crisis on the Economies of the Gulf,” held at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies.
The abstract is below. However, first, I must say how impressed I was by the respect and support attendees extended to the Ukrainian ambassador,, Mr. Kuzmenko Andrii, who was in attendance, as were other Ukrainian diplomats (photo below)
I was also impressed by the solidarity expressed by the great majority of academic and business participants, mostly from the Gulf and larger MENA Region, for the people of Ukraine in fighting Russian aggression. Many heartfelt analogies were made to Gulf and MENA-Region nations’ who have suffered invasions, especially citing Kuwait, Afghanistan, and Iraq.Continue reading
I was interviewed (Tuesday 01nov22) on the new gas-price cap plan the German government is expected to approve tomorrow.
I was asked four questions by DW’s host Kate Ferguson:
-1- Thomas, it`s interesting to see the government attach conditions to these price caps for companies. How worried is it about a corporate exodus?
-2- German chancellor Olaf Scholz is visiting a BASF factory today – just days after the company announced major cost cutting – complaining that gas prices were up to six times higher at home than in the US. Are these caps enough to prevent OTHER companies from following suit?
– 3- Managing gas prices is one thing. But with a recession looming what ELSE does the German government need to do to keep companies afloat?
-4- The EU hasn`t been able to agree on a COMMON gas price cap. How damaging is it for countries to go it alone? I was not particularly optimistic.
The above were not especially technical energy-sector questions, so my answers combine assessments of energy-sector facts facing Germany with geopolitical and geo-economic assessments of the deep crisis facing German industry, citizens and the political establishment. Read more on my blog: http:GlobalBarrel.com . Continue reading
and Host Ayse Suberker of TRT TV’s Straight Talk from Istanbul.
We analyzed what Putin aims to achieve, and why President Erdogan of Turkey has so rapidly accepted this proposal. This is obviously, I said, a scheme by Putin to try to save his natural gas business to Europe.Continue reading
Our panel included the experts:
The energy security of Moldova, a small, pro-EU state boarding Romania, is precarious and under various and comlpex threats from Russia. This includes direct threats to its gas supplies, which overwhelmingly come from Gazprom.
Meanwhile, Moldova’s 70% of its electricity comes from its region of Transnistria, which is illegally occupied by Russia, and this electricity is produced by gas imported across Moldova by Gazprom.
The remaining 30% of its electricity comes from Ukraine, where recent Russian missile strikes have hit power plants and apparently forced a cut off the Ukrainian electricity supplies to Moldova on the day before we recorded this show.Continue reading
Given the wartime energy emergency in Europe, it is perhaps astonishing that President Macron of France continues to block completion of the Midcat Pipeline.
Completion of this pipeline, whose construction was interrupted well before the Ukraine War began, would enable Portugal and Spain, located on the Iberian Peninsula, to send much of the abundance of LNG and pipeline gas these countries are able to import on northward, across the Pyrenees Mountains, across France and into Germany and other northern and eastern EU Member states, which are being starved of natural gas by Russia.
I am asked for my theory as to why President Macron would block this obviously much needed pipeline from crossing his country. We discuss several other related issues as well.Continue reading
Is this even a real proposal? Nowadays, after becoming so unreliable a supplier of gas to Europe, in fact having weaponized Russian gas deliveries, it is difficult for anyone to take this proposal seriously. Erdogan may have many significant problems; however he and Turkey are not so naieve as to do what Germany and Austria forced the European Union to do, i.e., become overdependent on Russian gas, especially given the deep energy crisis Europe is currently going through.
But, also consider this (as I explained towards the end): This proposal of sending Nord Stream gas, originating in Northern Urengoy province, above the Artic Circle, would also require a big, new pipeline laying project, running at least from perhaps near the Ukrainian border south towards the Black Sea and then onto Turkey. This would have a significant cost. And, by the time this could be finished – in perhaps five or more years – the world will have moved on. By that time, new LNG and natural gas production potential in the USA, Qatar, Australia, Algeria, Norway, Israel (sent to Egypt for liquification) and likely many others’, will have been developed and be on the global market. On this time horizon, there would be plenty of diverse sources of gas fully able to replace Russian export capacities.
I also explained the history of the South Stream Pipeline …Continue reading
My thanks to Jasmina Kos (Al Jazeera, Balkans) for moderating our panel, and to my friend and colleague Prof. Alan Riley, who joined us via video link from Brussels.
Also my thanks to the 12th Annual 2BS Forum, especially Azra Karastanovi, executive director of the Atlantic Council of Montenegro for the invitation. The Forum was an informative and especially sober event (i.e., more on how the state-crisis of Montenegro’s politically split ruling coalition played out even during the conference sessions in another post, soon.)
As for our panel, we discussed in some detail the reasons for Putin’s energy war against Europe, the likely reasons Russia would sabotage the Nord Stream pipelines, the status of the European struggle to replace Russian gas with other sources – and how bad might the crisis be during this and the next few winters, the question of the role of renewables, the role of conservation of gas and electricity use, and the potential for new-build nuclear power in Europe. Comments, corrections and critiques are most welcomed.Continue reading
To read the interview at Kyiv Post, which I recommend, go to this link. My thanks to Jason Smart for the interview. – If the link is down, here is the interview:
Dr. Thomas O’Donnell is an American energy and geopolitics expert, based for the last decade in Berlin. He has been deeply engaged in analysis and critique of the German-Russian gas partnership and continues to undertake work on geopolitics surrounding global oil markets and OPEC/OPEC+ states.
A nuclear physicist by training, O’Donnell is a proponent of a European nuclear renaissance over the perceived dangerous illusions of “100 percent renewables and no nuclear” policies. He blogs at GlobalBarrel.com and his Twitter handle is @twodtwod.
He spoke to Kyiv Post’s Jason Jay Smart about Russia’s weaponizing of energy supplies, how long that can go on, and the outlook for winters to come in Europe.
What do you make of the bombing of the underwater Nord Stream pipelines?
We must be clear when we talk about the bombing of Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines – Europe is being subjected to an energy war by Russia, which is part of the larger Russian war against Ukraine. We see that the battlefield war isn’t going well for Russia, so Russia is betting on its energy policies being able to cause enough economic pain for Europeans to divide Europe, with hopes that Europe will then abandon its solidarity with Ukraine.
Which is more strategically valuable to Russia and why: Gas or oil? Continue reading
The title above says much more succinctly what I was hoping to get into in this interview. Below are the beginning of an article I was writing for this blog post. However, a USA organization is interested in using it for an Op-Ed. So, only the initial part is below. I hope to post on this fully very soon (i.e., a published article). – Tom O’D.
In my view, the Biden Administration has unwisely gotten into an exaggerated public clash with the Saudis and OPEC/OPEC+ over their 2 mbd quota cut.
The key here is the need for more investment rapidly into both the OPEC states (which have plenty of oil reserves that can be developed) and into USA shale resources (that are also abundant and need to be more rapidly expanded).
The looming global recession discourages investors in both instances, of course. And, the Biden administration has reason to worry, both if a global recession soon begins, slashing oil demand, and especially if it doesn’t (but, it will).
I agree with Ed Morse (video interview on CNN here), veteran oil-market analyst, head of Citibank’s Global Commodities: Regardless of the OPEC quota cut, given the strong trend towards a global recession, which is proceeding relatively slower in the USA than elsewhere, it’s likely oil prices will be “in the $70’s at the end of the year.”
… to be continued.
05Oct22. The Moscow, expert (red shirt above) was introduced as x-Russian-diplomat Mr. Kirill Semyonov (AKA Semonov). i find he is at the Russian International Affairs Council. The high-level Valdai Club lists him as
Head of the Islamic Studies Center at the Innovation Development Institute and expert on Russian International Affairs Council. His twitter is @IbnRasibi (as Semenov).
The discussion goes a bit slowly on the English audio (three languages were being translated ); but important points were debated.
My points included the legitimacy for Dutch and Swedish authorities to limit access to the explosion scene, as one would for crime scene. Indeed, it is legitimate to keep Russian personnel away as their country is widely suspected for this sabotage. If the Russian side and others suspect the USA for this act, then it is reasonable if Sweden and/or Denmark bar USA personnel from the scene. The investigation is legitimately Denmark and Sweden’s.to control.
I explained two motives for the Kremlin to perpetuate this act.
One has to do with manufacturing a de facto “force majeure” or a so-called “act of God” so that it is simply impossible for Russia’s Gazprom to send gas to Europe and thereby fulfill the many contracts Gazprom has to deliver gas. If arbitration tribunals and European courts were to accept this excuse, it would absolve Gazprom of paying tens-of-billions of Europe in penalties to European companies who contracted gas deliveries and are now suffering economic harm and in many cases are going bankrupt because of Gazprom’s non-delivery.Continue reading
Dear GlobalBarrel.com readers,
Some upcoming events I’ll attend and post here:
1. I’m invited to speak at the “12th 2BS Forum, one of the leading politico-security conferences in Southeast Europe, organized by the Atlantic Council of Montenegro.” So I’ll be in Budva from 6-9 October. Ukrainian President Zelensky will deliver a keynote video speech from Kyiv. My Panel is 8 August 2022, 14.45 – 15.15:
The Climate-Energy Security Nexus, with speakers:
2. I’m also invited to speak at
I plan to post on the content of these conferences and my contributions, and to try to post more of my media interviews – when they may be of use.Continue reading