“O’Donnell told Newsweek that that if Ukrainians really wanted to hit oil exports, they would go after Novorossiysk Fuel Oil Terminal in the [eastern] Black Sea and Primorsk Oil Terminal at the end of the Baltic Pipeline System.
“‘These are the two major exports sites for Russian oil and they are demonstrated to be within range of aerial drones and perhaps, in the case the Black Sea, their seaborne drones,’ he said. ‘If they really want to cut Russia’s oil income, they would go after those ports and they haven’t—that might be in deference to Americans concerns.’“ (Russia Faces Major Gas Headache After Ukraine Strikes, Newsweek, article by Brendan Cole, Mar 25, 2024.)
Last week, Newsweek (USA) twice cited my analysis of Ukrainian drone strikes. In one instance, I had the honor of following an interview with General Ben Hodges, former Commander of US Army, Europe, with whom I concur in regretting the USA opposition.
(Aside: I hope to have an Op-Ed, perhaps tomorrow, in Europe, assessing that (i) the USA’s stated reasons versus Ukraine’s drone strikes to date do not make sense, and (ii) the “elephant in the room,” which must really have alarmed the White House, is that Ukraine’s strikes on refineries ipso facto demonstrate they COULD, if they so chose, disrupt anywhere up to 60% of Russian oil exports. Lastly,(iii) if the USA, EU and allies do not rapidly prepare non-Russian oil-sector producers for this eventuality, a global oil price shock could result.)
Here are the links to last week’s two new interviews/citations by Newsweek:
- US Ex-General Tells Ukraine to ‘Ignore’ Joe Biden’s warning …
- 4 days ago — Thomas O’Donnell, a Berlin-based energy analyst and global fellow at the Wilson Center, told Newsweek that reported concerns Washington had that …
- Russia Faces Major Gas Headache After Ukraine Strikes
- 5 days ago — Drone strikes on Russian oil facilities have hurt gasoline production, newspaper Kommersant reported Monday.
And, earlier citations of my analysis:
- Russia Faces ‘Serious’ Threat as Ukraine Attacks Refineries
- 18 Mar 2024 — O’Donnell said that drone attacks to the east of the Donbas region aim to disrupt the ability of Russia to deliver refined products, diesel …
- Putin Deploys Private Army to Guard Oil Assets Decimated …
- 20 Mar 2024 — … drone strikes Moscow has blamed on Ukraine … Thomas O’Donnell, a Berlin-based energy analyst, told Newsweek …
And, for good measure, here is my commentary on Germany’s strategy (i.e., the chancellor’s office’s strategy), which I see as consisting of, from the start, purposeful delays of delivery of significant-weapons-systems’ to Ukraine based on the analysis that a stalemate is advantageous, in order to force each side into negotiations …. and that Putin et al in Moscow would settle for a partition of Ukraine.
- Germany ‘Not Ukraine’s Ally,’ Top Official Says
- 6 Dec 2023 — Tom O’Donnell, a geopolitical analyst based in Berlin, told Newsweek that Pistorius wants to see Ukraine get more weapons from Germany and the …
- “The basic problem is that in the EU especially, everybody gave old weapons that were in storage and that’s pretty much run out,” he said. “If they wanted to be producing weapons at a good pace, generally it takes a couple of years to ramp that up and they simply didn’t.”
- “I think there’s a real problem, and Pistorius would like to do something about it, but I’m not sure that the apparatus is there. I would say in the German Chancellor’s office, in other places, there are people who would rather see a stalemate,” O’Donnell said. “My feeling is that to them, what’s wrong with a stalemate? It means both sides can’t advance, it’s painful and now they’ll talk.”
Here are my previous two GlobalBarrel posts on Ukraine’s implied drone strategy:
- My DW, VoA & Newsweek interviews: “Ukrainian drones cripple Russian refineries. GlobalBarrel(dot)com, 22mar24.
- My Kyiv Post Interview: “Russia Lost 12% of Its Oil Refinery Capacity in a Day: What’s the Impact?” GlobalBarrel(dot)com, 18mar24.
The Global Barrel 