I spoke with Kyiv Kanal24’s Nataly Lutsenko on three issues. Jump to a topic here: 1) Ukrainian drones in Russia 00:00:19 
2) G7 push v Russian oil. 00:05:25 3) Who won the US-Iran war? 00:10:27 Recorded 18 June 2026.
Note on number 3: I said it is not yet clear who won the US-Iran war. This has to do with military capacities which the USA (and its allies) could bring to bear but are now deeply reluctant or unwilling to bring to bear.
If Iran is unwilling to compromise or, worse, plays games, as it has already in the past few days with its “Persian Gulf Strait Authority,” the USA might decide it is constrained to employ whatever means necessary (Carter Doctrine) to end the Islamic Republic’s capacity to restrict the free flow of energy from the Gulf.
Trump and USA officials understand that a full-on military option is not an optimal resolution. This led them to accept an MoU that is quite conciliatory to Tehran in order to get the Straight reopened, and also apparently in response to many of its Gulf allies unwillingness to absorb the punishment Iranian missiles and drones would inflict before the Straight is forcibly reopened and Iran’s missile capacities are eventually suppressed. The administration knows that a massive bombing campaign of the entire country’s military-industrial and civilian infrastructure, plus an occupation of the Iranian coast along the Straight could likely achieved their aims of removing the Straight from Iranian hegemony. However, this in turn, is likely to require a protracted force commitment to contain whatever regime forces remain active. No matter how minor, remaining missiles and drones, proxy forces and terrorist capacities could require a long time to resolve.
The extent of such costs are unknowable. However, the costs of ceding hegemony over Hormuz and the region to the Islamic Republic are fairly clear. One caveat is that the Straight proved to be less immediately “strategic” to global oil and gas market supplies and prices than it was previously believed to be.
Therefore, if this MoU process fails, which would not be shocking, the USA will have to decide exactly what is really “necessary” and what is not vis-a-vis the Islamic Republic. If the latter refuses to enter into an acceptable agreement that insures the USA’s core interests in the free flow of energy from the Gulf, and especially if the USA sees that Tehran might again block Hormuz, but now in solidarity with China during any Great Power Asia-Pacific conflict, then Trump or the next president will likely renew the war without the limitations observed so far in this case. — More on this later.
The Global Barrel 