-
Join 2,407 other subscribers
-
Recent Posts
- My Asharq: Russian oil to India, 40% of imports, ousting traditional suppliers. Borell wanted resale into EU stopped. OPEC: Investments must surge before Q3/Q4 Asian demand-&-price rise. 14.May.2022
- My Asharq with Saudi expert: MENA green hydrogen exports will be inefficient & counter-productive for climate. Renewables still almost “nonexistent”, nuclear is pragmatic. 14.Apr.2022
- My Sky News: Germany-Mauritania green hydrogen plan is complex, costly & slow. Not mentioned: Mauritania & Senegal to soon export LNG. 14.Apr.2022
- EU/G7’s Russian diesel price cap is on. Now, as prices rise, Ukraine’s allies can squeeze Putin’s revenues, short of a price spike. Putin’s no longer decides his business terms. 14.Feb.2022
- My Asharq: EU & G7 debate Russian oil-products’ caps. Two-caps needed by 5 February. High impact likely later this year. 14.Jan.2022
- My Kyiv Post | Opinion Exclusive: “Reflections on Scholz’s Leopards’ Stalling Strategy” 14.Jan.2022
- My Asharq: Will Iraq be able to supply Germany natural gas? Not likely soon: Iraq has risky 40 % reliance on Iran gas, just like Germany’s was on Russia. Also, Iraq announced the same contract to capture flared gas 3X in six years, with little progress. 14.Jan.2022
- My Al Jazeera | Germany takes first USA LNG | Putin suffers Winter setback in energy war vs EU, likely lasting to 2026-27 | This is a 2nd front of Russia’s failing Ukraine War. 14.Jan.2022
- My DW live: Russia ban on oil sales to price-cap nations has no significant effect. Russia will be selling less oil over time & sanctions complicate shipping insurance. Meanwhile, Ukraine-allies’ price cap encourages India & China to demand lower prices from Russia without officially joining cap. 14.Dec.2022
- My Al Jazeera: Putin’s decree banning oil sales under the cap is “a bit of bravado.” – The EU/USA can squeeze Russia by “stepwise lowering the cap” & “bringing other, new oil online.” 14.Dec.2022
- Roundtable, London asked us: “Is the US making a profit from the conflict in Ukraine?” — In my view, this complaint reflects Scholz & Macron’s continued longing to escape the USA’s transatlantic strategy towards Russia & China. 14.Dec.2022
- My Aljazeera [English] Today’s start: EU sanctions Russian imports & G7-EU price-cap. As USA planned: no market shock. 14.Dec.2022
- EU sets $60 Russian-oil-price cap. What now? [My Al Jazeera & Asharq (Blmbrg) interviews] 14.Dec.2022
- My Al Jazeera: EU debates where to set Russian oil price cap. Over time this price “will be lowered as [new oil] comes online,” shrinking Russia’s market. “The Americans just don’t want a shock removal.” 14.Nov.2022
- My Polish press interview: “Europe can replace Russian oil & gas by 2027” but “in war there are casualties” (Pl. & Eng.) 14.Nov.2022
- My Doha talk: Europe’s energy crisis: another front of Putin’s Ukraine War – & the GCC 14.Nov.2022
- My DW: Will the gas-price cap keep firms in Germany? BASF & German politicians’ years-long energy policies have collapsed. 14.Nov.2022
- Our TRT/Istanbul: Will Turkey be Russia’s new gas hub to Europe? Can Putin save his gas sector? What’s Erdogan’s game? 14.Oct.2022
- Our TRT London: Can Moldova escape Russian energy dependence? 14.Oct.2022
- My Al Jazeera: Costa, Sánchez & Scholz, in Berlin, demand Midcat gas pipe via France. They’ll confront Macron at EU Council, 20-21 Oct 14.Oct.2022
- Al Ghad/Cairo: Putin tempts Erdogan, “Take Nord Stream gas at a Turkish hub. Sell EU my gas. Forget NATO.” Putin’s ‘Gas Godfather’ games become pathetic. 14.Oct.2022
- Video | European Energy Crisis panel at Montenegro’s 2BS Forum, with Prof Alan Riley, me & moderator Jasmina Kos 14.Oct.2022
- Kyiv Post: “What to Expect in the Energy War? Interview with Expert Thomas O’Donnell” 14.Oct.2022
- My Al Jazeera: Washington picked a pointless, populist fight with the Saudis over OPEC+ cuts 14.Oct.2022
- Asharq TV: I debated Moscow expert Kirill Semyonov on the Nord Stream 1 & 2 explosions: “A suspect (Russia) cannot be an investigator.” 14.Oct.2022
- My Sky News: Are EU Measures vs the Russian Oil- & Gas-War Enough? 14.Oct.2022
- Financial Times quotes me: Germany embraced Russia’s energy for “strategic balancing” vs USA 14.Oct.2022
- My TVP, Warsaw: Assessing Energy Supplies in the EU’s Energy Crisis vs Russia. 14.Sep.2022
- My Al Jazeera: I was asked to assess Pres. Von der Leyen’s proposals on the energy crisis | Sharing hardships fairly is the key to unity. 14.Sep.2022
- Al Jazeera’s video on my view: “What does Russia’s gas cut mean for Europe?” 14.Sep.2022
- I’m cited The New York Times | Putin is wielding his gas weapon vs the EU while he still has it. The energy war will be fierce. 14.Sep.2022
- My Asharq: Russia’s War is driving MENA shortages, inflation & unrest | How Moscow uses “denazification”+”food aid” lies. What can MENA states do? 14.Sep.2022
- My DW: On OPEC+ decision & the EU’s Russian-gas price cap || AL JAZEERA: I debated Moscow expert on Putin’s try to divide EU on gas. Gemany will never trust Russian energy again; & it is rearming. 14.Sep.2022
- On Al Jazeera with expert in Moscow | Putin wants a “compromise” for gas. Like what, Donbas? Odessa?- In my view, EU citizens will choose the cold … & their dignity. 14.Aug.2022
- My Al Jazeera: Russia cuts Latvian gas; but Baltics & Poland prepared, with LNG facilities. German leadership ridiculed them. | Putin is using energy blackmail to fight sanctions imposed on Russia for his Ukraine war. 14.Jul.2022
- My DW TV: Why Putin cuts EU gas bit-by-bit? Can Germany handle it? Wind’s low, so we’re buring gas! | Many EU states warned Berlin: “Don’t open our door to Putin’s Trojan horse!” 14.Jul.2022
- Putin cuts Nord Stream1 to 20%. Gas is Moscow’s key economic lever: Exports earn much less than oil & EU needs two-to-four years to replace it | USA-EU should hit Russian oil harder 14.Jul.2022
- Roundtable Invite/Einladung: Threat of Russia-Gulf States oil price war for Asian market? Berlin, Bundestag Press House, 28 July. [Deutsch/English event] 14.Jul.2022
- My Euronews: Nord Stream1 back on. Putin knows EU will be free of Russian gas in couple years; he’ll weaponize it while he still can. Killing EU-Ukraine solidarity is the target. 14.Jul.2022
- Is a lack of oil refineries boosting global fuel prices? Al Jazeera asked us, in Houston & Berlin 14.Jul.2022
- Al Jazeera asks: What if Gazprom cuts Nord Stream1? EU strategy rests on solidarity. | As Putin’s EU gas trade dies, he can weaponize it once or twice more. 14.Jul.2022
- Al Jazeera: Former Russian Foreign Minster A. Fedorov & I are interviewed: A Putin Gas War vs EU? | Me: This would be another huge Putin tactical blunder. EU citizens will not be intimidated, will unite, blaming Putin. 14.Jul.2022
- My Al Jazeera. Turbine-in-Canada: Germany gets it back for Russia. Ukraine objects | EU gas crisis looms: Winning this economic war will have costs 14.Jul.2022
- My Asharq(Bloomberg): What if Russia cuts off EU gas? Do sanctions hurt Russia? How’s Putin’s oil going to India? “This is Putin’s energy war to win his Ukraine war.” 14.Jul.2022
- My AlJazeera: Russia cuts exports via Nord Stream 1 by 60%, further weaponizing EU over-dependence, as part of its war against Ukraine. EU winter gas rationing is possible. 14.Jun.2022
- My DW live: Gazprom Germania bailout: German policy made EU hostage to Russian energy, enabled Moscow’s Ukraine war | German strategy 1980-2022 was “strategic balancing” of Russia vs USA to carve out a space for its freedom of action within sphere of USA predominance. 14.Jun.2022
- My Al Jazeera: After EU (finally!) puts sanctions, the Saudis & OPEC move quickly to occupy Russia’s lost market shares | The world has abundant oil to develop [EN audio/AR video] 14.Jun.2022
- AlJazeera live: EU failes to agree on Russian oil embargo. With months of oil in storage, Druzhba inland refineries are no excuse. 14.May.2022
- Asharq live: No EU embargo agreed vs. Russian oil. Some too cautious (Germany), others pro-Putin (Hungary). Yet, EU has months of oil in storage. [EN audio, AR video] 14.May.2022
- My Al Jazeera: Finland, the Baltics & Poland prepared well for Gazprom’s cutoff. Germany & Austria did the opposite, putting EU at risk. 14.May.2022
Category Archives: Euroepen Union
EU/G7’s Russian diesel price cap is on. Now, as prices rise, Ukraine’s allies can squeeze Putin’s revenues, short of a price spike. Putin’s no longer decides his business terms.
Posted in Euroepen Union, Global Oil Market, Russia, Sanctions
Tagged Energy, Russia, Ukraine, United States
Roundtable, London asked us: “Is the US making a profit from the conflict in Ukraine?” — In my view, this complaint reflects Scholz & Macron’s continued longing to escape the USA’s transatlantic strategy towards Russia & China.
Guests:
- Nicholas Lokker, Research Assistant at the Centre for a New American Security
- Marie Jourdain, Visiting Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center
- Dr. Thomas O’Donnell: Energy and Geopolitics Analyst
Host: Philip Hampsheir, sitting in for David Foster.
From the TRT YouTube page blurb:
Dec 7, 2022 – Top European Union officials are accusing the United States of profiting from the war in Ukraine through high natural gas prices and weapons sales, while Europe struggles with rampant inflation and a cost of living crisis. Amidst rising tensions, a meeting between French President Emmanuel Macron and his American counterpart in Washington saw both attempt to send a message of unity.
Continue readingPosted in Energy and Geostrategy, Euroepen Union, Russia, The USA, Ukraine, Uncategorized
Tagged Energy, geopolitics, Germany, Russia, United States
My Aljazeera [English] Today’s start: EU sanctions Russian imports & G7-EU price-cap. As USA planned: no market shock.
FIRST: Here’s my AM Al Jazeera-ENGLISH), today 05Dec22. [About 30s. at start is lost]
SECOND: Here is my ENGLISH AUDIO of my AM AL Jazeera-Arabic interview
Posted in Euroepen Union, Global Oil Market, Oil Crisis, oil price war, Oil prices, Russia, Uncategorized
Tagged al jazeera, oil price, oil price cap, russian sanctions
EU sets $60 Russian-oil-price cap. What now? [My Al Jazeera & Asharq (Blmbrg) interviews]
FIRST: Al Jazeera, 10:05 AM, 02.12.22 CET, Berlin & Doha: — English audio below, then Arabic video.
SECOND: Asharq (exclusive Bloomberg affiliate, Gulf) , about 10:00 PM, 02.12.22 CET, Berlin & Doha — English Audio below, then Arabic video.
Posted in Asharq, Energy crisis, Euroepen Union, oil price war, Uncategorized
Tagged Asharq, Energy, EU, European Union, oil price, oil price cap, Russia, Ukraine
My TVP, Warsaw: Assessing Energy Supplies in the EU’s Energy Crisis vs Russia.
This video is the portion of the TVP show (Warsaw, Poland, in English) with my interview on 09sep22.
We discussedthe present energy crisis in Europe vs. Putin’s Russia – as an additional front parallel to the hot war inside Ukraine.
I gave my views on the causes for Europe’s predicament: this includes over-dependence on Russian energy – long insisted upon by especially Germany and Austria – to over-dependence on variable wind energy without having any significant amout of grid-scale storage installed.
Also, on the necessity of nuclear as a zero-carbon base load generation capaciy, and the most useful applications for larger, Generation 3+ nuclear plants as versus smaller SMRs (small modular reactors). I aso commented on the Polish national energy transistion plan, wich seems much moe flexib .
[Note: TVP is the Polish state-media corporation TV channel. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telewizja_Polska
As the Wiki indicates, TVP is criticized for being partisan pro-government. In my interview, on this topic, this was not the case. I also often go onto German state-media TV, Deutsche Welle (DW), subject to my similar observations when I’ve been on that station. ]
Continue readingPosted in Energy crisis, Euroepen Union, Poland, Russia, Ukraine, Uncategorized
Le dije a Radio Clarín Buenos Aires: Putin amenaza con cortarle el gas a la UE/Alemania, pero no tiene otra fuente de dinero. Si lo hace, Biden y la UE organizarán un “Gas-Lift” … [Spanish]
Re: Urgente Pedido de Entrevista Periodística – Corresponsales Clarín y La Nación – Argentina
De Maria E… … Fri, Apr 29, 11:50 PM
Dr. O ´Donnell, … Estas son las preguntas para la entrevista del domingo:
1¿Alemania tiene otra posibilidad que no sea seguir comprando el gas ruso? ¿Cuáles serían sus otras opciones?
Repuesta: Antes que nada, muchas gracias por esta oportunidad de hablar con su audiencia argentina.
Pues, debo señalar que hay dos problemas diferentes: el suministro de petróleo ruso a Alemania y Europa y el suministro de gas ruso a Alemania y Europa. Me preguntas por el gas. El gas es mucho más difícil para Europa y para Alemania que el petróleo Hay dos casos: una reducción gradual o parcial de gas o un corte inmediato.
Un corte gradual se puede manejar bastante bien. Ahora Putin está tratando de dividir y conquistar Europa cortando el suministro de gas a Polonia y Bulgaria.
Un recorte inmediato, ya sea por parte de Putin o debido a las sanciones de la UE, crearía una gran crisis energética en Europa. Sin embargo, es importante entender que, al final, Putin está en una posición mucho más débil.
Si Putin corta todos los suministros de gas a Europa, ahora no hay suficiente gas en el mercado mundial para compensar. Pero Occidente, y especialmente EE. UU., la administración Biden, se ha estado preparando para esto al menos dos meses antes de que Putin invadiera Ucrania, incluso antes de que Europa creyera las advertencias de EE. UU. de que Putin atacaría Ucrania.
Continue readingPosted in Berlin, Climate Change, Ehergiewende, Energiewende, Energy and Geopolitics, Energy and Geostrategy, EU gas, Euroepen Union, gas crisis, Gazprom, gazprom, geopolitics, Germany, Global Oil Market, international relations, Iran, Iran nuclear, Iran sanctions, Latin America, Nord Stream, oil, Oil Crisis, Oil prices, Oil supply, Poland, Putin, Russia, Sanctions, The USA, Ukraine, Ukraine, Uncategorized
Tagged Buenos Aires, Energy, geopolitics, Germany, oil sector, Putin, Radio Clarin, Russia, Sanctions, Ukraine, United States, War
Would EU sanctions on Russian oil cost Germany “too much”? No. Scholz & Habeck pose the wrong questions. [Asharq/Bloomberg live: En & Ar]
24 April 2022: My Asharq/live evening TV news interview is a bit over seven minutes.
Would an oil embargo be “effective”?
I respond, What is “effective”? Clearly it would not end the war. However, a Ukranian soldier who decides to give his life to resist the Russian invaders has no illusion that his or her sacrifice, on its own, will end the war. But, he will makes what contribution he can.
So, the German leadership refuses to send Ukraine heavy weapons, and certainly won’t send German troops. However, Germany and the EU can at least step up and make this contribution – sanctionRussian oil now. This will greatly hinder Putin’s ability, within two to three months, to finance his war.
- We discuss the question raised by the German leadership – by Chancellor Scholz (SPD party), Energy and Environment Minister Habeck (Greens) and Finance Minister Lindner (FDP liberals) – that supposedly an embargo in Russian oil (or gas) would do more harm to German citizens than to the Russian leadership.
- The argument heard repeatedly from Berlin is that this is “not worth it” and also, that such an embargo it “would not end the war.”
- Also, I answer the question of how much oil could Putin’s Russia divert from Europe to India if the EU and Germany embargoed oil.
I think I posed useful answers to these questions given the time we had. Your thoughts and critiques are welcomed, and solicited.
Best, Tom O’Donnell, Berlin
Posted in Asharq, Euroepen Union, geopolitics, Germany, Global Oil Market, Interview, Oil Crisis, Oil prices, Russia, Sanctions, Ukraine, Uncategorized
Tagged Asharg, Energy, European Union, geopolitics, Germany, oil sanctions, oil sector, OPEC, Russia, Ukraine, United States
My Al Jazeera: Yes, the EU can embargo Russian oil now: OPEC’s role, Germany’s Druzhba refineries OK, SPRs, weak demand. [Arabic & English]
Can the EU embargo Russian oil now? I explain yes, it can, and how. Also what OPEC will do. My Live Al Jazeera interview on 12.03.22 (ca. 00:20 CET, 18:20 EST). Here are the main points coved, quickly, from memory.
Afer an initial price spike from an EU embargo, the IEA’s SPR – strategic pertroleum reserves – can make up any shortall of oil for some weeks or so or months while OPEC and the USA increase production.
Especially the UAE and most especially Saudi Arabia have significant excess capacity, at least 2 million barrel/day (mbd) they can add to the market. Oil is fungable, there is one global market, so in principle the shock of an embargo could be ended rather quickly.
Regarding Germany: it is the main EU Member state now opposed to an immediate Russian oil embargo. However, I am confident it is being overly cautious and that Germany can do this now without significant disruptions.
In particular, Germany worries about the fact that several refineries in Germany and Central Europe are located inland, and supplied by the Druzhba Pipeline bringing about 700,000 barrels per day of Urals grade oil (i.e., hevier, sulferous oil) as their feedstock. So, the German government is claiming it would be very difficult to supply these refineries. However, this is not such a problem.
Consider that two German refineries, in the South of Germany, Bavaria for example; these two refineries are on a second pipeline, the Transalpine pipeline. This comes from the port of Trieste Italy. So these two refineries are fine. In an embargo of Russian Druzhba Pipeline oil they can be supplied from Trieste.
However, the refinery the German leaders most worry about is called Svedt, and it is located in Germany near the Polish border, also on the Druzhba pipeline [i.e., PCK Oil Refinery, at Schwedt, Oder River, Brandenburg State, Germany]. However, I can make some immediate points about this refinery.
Continue readingMy Al Jazeera: Defaulting, Putin becomes “Hugo Chavez with nukes.” EU sanctions on Russian oil would force discounted sales “out the back door” to China et al … killing the initial global price spike [English audio. Arabic video]
Note: It is indeed possible for the EU – including Germany too – to immediately cut Russian oil imports to zero and not suffer prolonged high oil prices. How? I will explain in a coming post. This is a topic I have been working on intensively the past couple weeks.
I mention some of my (and others’) rationale for saying this in my answer to the second question from Al Jazeera. NOTE: A very good reference on this is: Christof Rühl speaking last week to bne inelligence. I strongly concur with him. (this note added 15 Mar.)
Continue readingPosted in Energy and Geostrategy, EU gas, Euroepen Union, gas crisis, Germany, Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, Hugo Chávez, Oil Crisis, Oil prices, Oil supply, OPEC, Russia, Sanctions, Ukraine, Uncategorized
Tagged European Union, oil, oil market, oil prices, OPEC, Putin, Russia, Sanctions, Ukraine, USA
EU Gas Crisis: German elites chose Putin’s pipeline over Ukraine “risk” | My DW ‘Inside Europe’ interview (NPR syndicated)

IE: Inside Europe, 2/25/2022 From: DW – Deutsche Welle Series: Inside Europe: News and Current Affairs ~ Weekly from DW
This week on the show: Russia-Ukraine war. UK sanctions on Russia. Russia gas. The mood in Russia. How ordinary people are struggling to get by…
Continue readingPosted in Energy and Geopolitics, EU gas, Euroepen Union, gas crisis, gazprom, Germany, Uncategorized
Tagged Energy, gas crisis, geopolitics, Germany, natural gas, Nord Stream 2, oil sector, Russia, Ukraine, United States
My CGTN TV: The growing EU v Russia asymmetry in energy trade. EU-USA nix oil/gas sanctions over Ukraine, fearing supply crisis.
I had a good live talk with CGTN TV hosts on my analysis of a growing “asymmetry” in energy relations between the EU and Russia.
Especially in natural gas, the EU is increasingly dependent on Russian supplies while Russia is decreasingly dependent on its EU market.
Under Putin, Russia and Gazprom have constantly worked not only to:
- Build new pipelines to Europe (principally via the Baltic Sea-to-Germany) so as to detour its exports around Ukraine. This has enabled Putin to committ his present massive aggression there without risking delivery of Gazprom gas to its European markets west of Ukraine. However it has also worked to
- Diversify its market for natural gas away from Europe. This includes 10-15-years of projects to build new major pipelines to China and Eurasia and plans for more still (e.g., Power of Siberia 2 pipeline), and to build large-scale LNG export terminals, owned mainly by Russia’s Novatek firm, in its Arctic regions and on Sakhalin Island in the far east. This gas is relatively sanctions-proofed in that it can be delivered by ship to any world market, though it mainly goes to Asia where LNG prices are generally highest.
I explain that this growing asymmetry is precisely why the USA-and-EU have NOT included energy sanctions in their package retaliating for Putin’s present war on Ukraine.
Continue readingPosted in Berlin, Energiewende, Energy and Geopolitics, Energy and Geostrategy, EU gas, Euroepen Union, gas crisis, Renewables, Uncategorized
Tagged Energy, Gazprom, Germany, Interview, natural gas, oil sector, Russia, United States
Kyiv’s Wall of Remembrance to 4,000 Ukrainian soldiers already killed vs. Russian aggression | Thoughts on my video at St Michaels Monastery
This is a simple post. I wanted to share my video of the Wall of Remembrance in Kyiv fo;r 4,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed fighting Russian aggression since 2014. I estimated there were photos of about 3,100 of these soldiers on the wall. I made the video 26 October 2021; by then, the photos went to July 2020.
I was in Kyiv for a congress, and the video was spontaneous, intended for family back in Berlin and the States.
This wall is around the St. Michaels Monastery. I hadn’t come up this path to St. Michaels and on into central Kyiv before. So, as I was making this video, I was discovering the soldiers’ memorial for the first time. On other visits,, I’d taken the cable car up, and passed by the Maidan martyrs’ memorial wall – which is at the end of this video. This time I had walked some kilometers, at sunset, from my hotel across from the Rada and the Presidential Palace, which are below, at the level of the Dnieper River.
Why am I posting this video now, for the public?
One reason is to put human faces on the geopolitics I analyze in this blog and in my work.
More particularly, I was reading about the classified briefings on Capital Hill last week for senators and representatives by US Secretary of Defense Austin and Secretary of State Blinken. They reportedly outlined various scenarios they deem likely for what sort of military aggression Putin is planning.
The numbers of Ukrainian casualties they reportedly projected – mostly civilians – number in the many thousands depending on the particular invasion scenario Moscow chooses (see the NYT). Of course, there are disagreements between European and USA officials as to which scenario Putin will choose; but that is irrelevant as to the essential character of what Putin’s Russian Federation is threatening: an offensive, an invasion, a war of aggression. Under any of the scenarios, many more Ukrainians will die than have died since 2014, … and I was thinking that their faces will look exactly like the faces here in my video.
So here is a medium-to-long-term scenario:
Continue readingMy TRT/Istanbul: Biden names Qatar a “major non-NATO ally,” seeks LNG for EU. Energy scenarios of a Russian war vs. Ukraine.
Strait Talk with host Aisha-Aura Sbadus @suberker in Istanbul. My co-panelist was Tom Marzec-Manser @tmarzecmanser Head of Gas Analytics at @ICISOfficial
We discussed scenarios for how the EU energy crisis might go in a new Russian war against Ukraine, and the significance of USA President Biden designating Qatar as a “major non-NATO ally.”
In particular, we discussed how much could Qatari LNG be made available and what its impact would be alongside the massive US LNG deliveries so far this year.
Continue readingPosted in Energy and Geopolitics, EU gas, Euroepen Union, gas crisis, gazprom, geopolitics, Germany, Uncategorized
Tagged Energy, gas crisis, geopolitics, Germany, Russia, Ukraine, United States
EU Energy Crisis: Germany & EU long ignored US warnings that Putin can weaponize gas, attack Ukraine – On David Foster’s Roundtable, London
26.01.2022. Experts Wahid Machram, market analyst in Dubai; Samuel Ramadi at Oxford University, UK. and TRT Roundtable host David Foster in London made important points. Here’s a key assessment I made.:
There is a new and growing asymmetry between the European Union and Russia in energy supplies – one increasingly favoring Moscow.
Europe has opened itself to energy blackmail. The present winter 2021-22 gas shortage and skyrocketing prices are only one part. There is also the real possibility of Putin cutting off the pipeline gas he is still supplying in the event that Europe, esp. Germany, opposes any Russian invasion of Ukraine.
About the new EU-Russia growing energy asymmetry:
- On the demand side, Germany and Europe generally increasingly need natural gas, and are growing more dependent on Russian supplies, contrary to the promises of rapid progress to a carbon-free future of the German Green Party and others. The EU, and especially Berlin, have adopted ideologically-determind, technologically unrealistic and expensive energy-transition policies, with little concern for energy-supply security. This has made Europe increasingly dependent on Russian gas imports – 40% at present of total gas imports,
- Meanwhile, on the supply side, Russia, the major European supplier, is increasingly finding ways to diversify its gas customer base away from Europe, to the Far East, especially to China, and to Eurasia generally. It also has new outlets for its vast Arctic gas resources by converting it to LNG that can go by ship to anywhere in the world.
Posted in Berlin, Ehergiewende, Energiewende, Energy and Geopolitics, Energy and Geostrategy, Environment, EU gas, Euroepen Union, gas crisis, gazprom, geopolitics, German Green Party, Germany, NATO, Nord Stream, Nord Stream 2, Nuclear power, Russia, The USA, Three Seas, Ukraine, Uncategorized
Tagged Biden, Energy, Energy crisis, gas crisis, Gazprom, Germany, moscow, Nord Stream, Russia, Ukraine, United States
EU Commission openness to nuclear as green, betrays falling confidence in the German 100%-renewables model [English & Polish]
Dr. Thomas W. O’Donnell, Berlin 27.01.22 (Polish original 22.09.22)

Printed in Polish by Banker.pl as Komisja Europejska może uznać energetykę jądrową za “zieloną” 2021-09-22, from a written interview with Artur Chierskiwsky (PAP, Brussels) Here’s the unpublished English.-Tom O’D. [Edit:: Headline word “betrays” was initially miswritten “belays”].
Reportedly, the EU Commission plans to soon include nuclear power in its green finance taxonomy, finally making it eligible for favorable financing and carbon credits on a par with wind and solar.[1]
This could be spun two ways: as a victory for science over populist capture of climate policies, or as a tipping point in Brussels angst at the growing complexities and costs of the “100% renewables and no nuclear” model.
In reality, it’s some and some.
On the one hand, in March, the Commission received reports solicited from the Joint Research Centre (JRC), its scientific expert arm, finding that nuclear waste is “manageable”, posing no “significant” harm to the environment, and that nuclear energy has been demonstrated to be eminently safe.[2]
However, these assessments are not surprising. Had the Commission requested these years ago, they undoubtedly would have concluded similarly. Nuclear, public-health, risk-assessment and other expert bodies have been saying these things for years (full disclosure: my PhD is in experimental nuclear physics [3]).
The question then is, why is this scientific consensus only now becoming actionable for the Commission?
Continue readingPosted in Ehergiewende, Energy and Geopolitics, Energy and Geostrategy, Environment, Euroepen Union, European Union, France, gas crisis, Gazprom, German Green Party, Germany, Nord Stream, Nord Stream 2, Nuclear power, Poland, Putin, Renewables, Russia, shale gas, The USA, Uncategorized
Tagged Energy, Germany, Nuclear eergy, Nuclear power, Poland, Renewables, Taxonomy, United States