My Al Jazeera: Putin’s decree banning oil sales under the cap is “a bit of bravado.” – The EU/USA can squeeze Russia by “stepwise lowering the cap” & “bringing other, new oil online.”

Al Jazeera asked for an online commentary within an hour of Putin’s announcement. These were my initial thoughts.

I also spoke to AJ Arabic, and a couple hours later, on Germany’s Deutsche Welle’s English language service elaborated on these points (see video, next blog post).

The question is where will the EU-USA-g7 western alliance go from here. If they stepwise lower the cap, and also work hard to get new oil online (from OPEC and the USA), they can gradually keep lowering Russia’s market share. However, as I indicated, the coming recession – esp. in Europe – and the uncertainties of Chinese demand as it exits COVID shutdowns in early 2023, complicate calculations of whether the globala oil market will be short or long on supplies and if the price will spike or not. I said this will be “a chess game.”

Comments are most welcomed. Tom O’D.

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