I’m at the Warsaw Security Conference, an annual high-level gathering of European and US experts and officials, 12-13 Oct.
Everyone is trying to figure what in the world Trump thinks he’s doing by buying diesel from Putin and claiming Putin agreed to an energy ceasefire. Meanwhile, Russia foreign minister Sergey Lavrov rudely rejected any energy ceasefire, contradicting Trump, saying that Ukraine “does not deserve” a ceasefire.
All indications are that this deal is dead on arrival. I answered several questions and theorized what Trump hopes to accomplish.
It is clear from both European and American security experts and officials here in Warsaw, that no one thinks this “deal” will fly, or that it can really lower diesel prices. Instead, there is deep indignation that the President of the USA would so blatantly undermine the struggle against the Russian petrostate for its aggression in Ukraine. And, there are also market implications beyond the direct undermining Ukraine’s defensive war and allies’ Russian energy sanctions.
A thoughtful examination by oil-sector expert and economist, Christof Rühl, appeared in the Financial Times this morning (“The diesel crisis is testing the limits of globalization, FT 13Oct26). I recommend it, esp. in light of the title of this blog, “The Global Barrel.” Rühl examines impacts superpower market-shocking political maneuvers are having on the open, global oil and refined products market
Dr. Tom O’Donnell, in Warsaw.
