Above is a video of my talk (in English) in Doha, Qatar at the 9th Annual Gulf Studies Forum, on the theme: ““The Impact of the Ukraine Crisis on the Economies of the Gulf,” held at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies.
The abstract is below. However, first, I must say how impressed I was by the respect and support attendees extended to the Ukrainian ambassador,, Mr. Kuzmenko Andrii, who was in attendance, as were other Ukrainian diplomats (photo below)
I was also impressed by the solidarity expressed by the great majority of academic and business participants, mostly from the Gulf and larger MENA Region, for the people of Ukraine in fighting Russian aggression. Many heartfelt analogies were made to Gulf and MENA-Region nations’ who have suffered invasions, especially citing Kuwait, Afghanistan, and Iraq.
As one should expect, there were also deeply felt criticisms of USA policy in the region since 9/11 However, at the same time, a pragmatic and respectful recognition was evident, that the USA is standing with Ukraine against Russian aggression.
There were a small number who sought to excuse Russia, but these views were strongly and persistently criticized.
The panel, Session 6 included, in order of presentations:
- Dr. Thomas W O’Donnell & Dr. Laurence al-Hinawi, (from Berlin)
- Dr. Ayhab Saad, (Qatar)
- Dr. Rachid El Bazzim,(Morocco)
- Moderated by Dr. Habib Allah Turkistani (Saudi Arabia).
A link to our entire panel is here. My response to several questions (in Arabic) begins at time stamp 1:44:05.
Abstract
Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war on international energy markets and the role of GCC countries
Dr. Thomas W. ODonnell, PhD
Summited 23 August 2022, Berlin
Russia’s Ukraine war has shattered the European security system. In parallel, a fierce economic war with energy at its core pits the Russian Federation against Ukraine’s USA-led allies in Europe and Asia. We analyze the complex medium-term oil-and-gas-market conflict, where Russia can and will inflict significant hardships, contrasting this to the long-term outcome. There, the USA-led alliances’ vastly superior energy resources, technologies, finances and market development will steadily reduce today’s Russian energy superpower to a minor-rank ed player handcuffed by primary and secondary sanctions. We advise how GCC states can position themselves within today’s market chaos to cement their long-term centrality in especially the European, Indian and perhaps Chinese markets which Russia will lose. The GCC’s EU customers will also recalibrate their “net zero” anti-fossil-fuel strategies, with new attention to geosecurity, thereby extending their IOCs and GCC NOC’s time to reliably exploit their vast hydrocarbons reserves.
The Global Barrel 