Venezuelan transition? My analysis on Germany’s DW TV | Videos: español & English


Here are two videos from the Quadriga show on Germany’s international network —  Aquí hay dos vídeos del programa Cuadriga de la red internacional alemana

Espanol, 28 febrero 2019:  (… luego desplácese hasta el video)

English 31 January 2019 : (… then scroll down to the video)

Will the dictator Maduro leave? By peaceful means or  by force? Can Venezuelans do it themselves?  Will there be an intervention?  What are the plans of the Lima Group of Latin American states.  Will the US intervene?  If so, with what motives? Oil?

What if a peaceful transition fails?  What will the Venezuelan people and the legitimate National Assembly and interim-President Guaidó do then?

These the questions I have been asked in recent days in Berlin.  I am very interested in your comments or critiques of my analysis on

¿El dictador Maduro dejará el poder? Si sale, ¿será pacífico o por la fuerza? ¿Pueden sacarlo el pueblo venezolano? ¿O será necesaria una intervención? ¿Cuáles son los planes del Grupo Lima? ¿Intervenirá Estados Unidos? Si los Estados Unidos hacen una intervención, ¿sería por el petróleo de Venezuela?

Si una transición pacífica no da resultado, ¿qué tendría que hacer el pueblo venezolano? ¿Qué deberían hacer la legítima Asamblea Nacional y el presidente interino Guaidó?

Estas son las preguntas que recibí durante los últimos días aquí en Berlín.

Me interesan mucho sus reacciones o sus críticas a mis respuestas a


3 responses to “Venezuelan transition? My analysis on Germany’s DW TV | Videos: español & English

  1. Dan Martinez

    Dan Martinez
    Washington, DC. 20520


  2. Barry Blacklock

    Hi Tom, I think you did a great job of differentiating between the need for dialogue and negotiations for Maduro to leave. Too few people understand that it is impossible to enter into productive dialogue with the Maduro government.


  3. instinctivepath

    Hi Tom,

    I agree with your oil analysis, but differ a bit.

    I agree with the argument that there is no oil market imperative for the US to intervene in Venezuela because a) the US has plenty of oil and b) the global petroleum market is flooded with oil too.

    However, in a Guaidó or an opposition-led government, one of the first things they would like to do would be to recover/rejuvenate Venezuela’s oil sector and increase production. This is a major business opportunity for US multinationals, no?

    I agree that leftists have a tendency to view Western oil interests in a very antiquated manner and they/we are wrong to think that the US wants to establish American ownership of Venezuela oil, but shouldn’t the fact that lucrative oil concession deals will be available for US multinationals be a legitimate motivating factor, even if it is not the primary motive of the US government?


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