- “Venezuela: Petroleum, Politics & Economics in the Post-Chavez Era”–My Columbia U. talk, with Luiz Pinto, 9 October October 2, 2014
- “Oil & the US-Iran Crisis” – My talk at American University, Washington DC: September 30, 2014
- Estoy citado en “Dinero”: La caída en la acción de Ecopetrol de Colombia no se debe únicamente a los ataques guerrilleros September 13, 2014
- My IP Journal latest: “A firm US-EU partnership on Iran came at great cost, and made a deal possible” August 14, 2014
- I’m quoted in WSJ: Why sell Citgo? Cash for Ramirez’ PDVSA-recovery projects August 5, 2014
- My talk on Iran, NYC | After an Iran-USA deal: A Mideast without democracy, run by Iran & Saudi Arabia? May 31, 2014
- USA Oil Seminar 5.0 | USA as Rising Energy Superpower? May 15, 2014
- My IP Journal article | Addressing Europe’s Energy Dependence on Russia: Gas globalization? May 6, 2014
- USA Oil 3.0 | US energy experts on Europe, Russia & Ukraine April 29, 2014
- My AQ piece: Maduro’s Conundrum as UNASUR Starts Venezuelan Peace Talks April 12, 2014
- Venezuelan state’s economic response to protests: Rationing plus Chinese and Russian loans to float a liberal dollar market March 16, 2014
- My DGAP article | Energiewende vs. USA Shale Gas: Can German industry compete? January 22, 2014
- A new syllabus: The USA & the global oil system: The formation of American energy policy January 14, 2014
- Petrobras of Brazil v. Pdvsa of Venezuela – Reply to press interns in Sao Paulo December 1, 2013
- China y América Latina: ¿Quién gana y quién pierde? – Petroguía 2014 (Spanish) November 27, 2013
- For Obama, an Iran deal trumped Syrian aid: USA “core interests” are in “flow of energy” November 16, 2013
- Beijing ups Venezuelan oil investments, but refuses Chavista leaders’ plea for a cash bailout October 10, 2013
- DW in Spanish || Obama y Rouhani: ¿Llegarán a un acuerdo nuclear/petrolífero? October 3, 2013
- AQ Follow-up | Caracas & Maracaibo: Venezuela’s Private Sector Anxious to Invest if PDVSA Builds Confidence September 17, 2013
- My AS/COA piece: PDVSA Post-Chavez: Will Partnerships with the Private Sector and Chinese Experts Boost PDVSA Oil Production? August 29, 2013
- Competing with China in Latin America: Is Germany losing its high-tech advantage? August 20, 2013
- Can Obama & Rouhani End Iranian Nukes+Oil Crisis? – My Beijing press interviews in “Sanlian Lifeweek” August 8, 2013
- My talk: JFK Institute, Berlin: How “The Global Barrel” shapes Washington-EU relations June 8, 2013
- Why is Chinese production in Iraq booming, and in Venezuela lagging? June 4, 2013
- En Espanol: Venezuela’s “Tal Cual” on my al-Naimi post May 16, 2013
- Listening to Saudi Oil Minister Al Naimi at CISIS in Washington: Bad news for Venezuela & Iran? May 8, 2013
- NYC Lecture: THE LEGACY OF HUGO CHAVEZ: Is ‘Oil-Socialism’ a Sustainable Alternative Development? April 24, 2013
- “Tough Policy Choices Await Chavez Successor”- My viewpoint in Petroleum Intelligence Weekly March 16, 2013
- Did Iran release Abu Ghaith to show the USA its good faith in February nuclear negotiations? March 15, 2013
- Chavez’ Legacy for Venezuela’s poor & institutions: Watch my German TV News Interview March 9, 2013
- PDVSA Future Uncertain After Chavez – My views in “Platts” today March 8, 2013
- Hugo Chavez’ Death | I’ll be on Deutsche Welle news, live in Berlin March 6, 2013
- As Chavez’ oil alliance with China gets serious, Beijing holds PDVSA to its word February 18, 2013
- Succession Crisis #2: Chavez’ non-inauguration: Why violate the “Chavez Constitution”? January 9, 2013
- Venezuelan Succession Crisis? 1: Two men Chavez wants to succeed him December 14, 2012
- Problems of the Global Oil System: Why teach about oil? September 16, 2012
- Amuay refinery disaster: Syrian naphtha & Chavez’ “petroleum revolution” in flames August 30, 2012
- I’m cited: “(BN) Chavez Buys Enemy U.S.’s Fuel While Lauding Iran” July 11, 2012
- Venezuelan Faja Surprise: USA’s Harvest sells not to China but Indonesia June 23, 2012
- Iranian National Oil Company & PDVSA Respond to My Exposé?! June 14, 2012
- My Iran-in-Venezuelan-Oil Study: Summarized in “Tal Cual” today in Caracas; in Spanish May 21, 2012
- Bolivarian Venezuela’s Oil Policy & Iran: A Failed Energy Alliance May 18, 2012
- Oil Prices: Saudi Pumping Surge & US-EU Iran Strategy March 24, 2012
- PDVSA ships fuel to Syrian regime: Chavez risks sanctions? February 20, 2012
- China’s Iran-Oil Import Angst – Part II: 2012 Following 2010 Script February 15, 2012
- China’s Iran-Oil Import Angst. Part I: U.S.-Saudi Cooperation February 13, 2012
- With a USA-dependent oil sector, Chavez can’t help Ahmadinejad January 18, 2012
- A Santos-Chavez Pipeline: Where’s the demand for Latin America’s oil boom? December 17, 2011
- Part IV: Another $6.5b in loans: The frustrated Beijing-Caracas courtship December 9, 2011
- Chávez loses López human rights case. Part A: Venezuelan democracy & political power September 20, 2011
“Venezuela: Petroleum, Politics & Economics in the Post-Chavez Era”–My Columbia U. talk, with Luiz Pinto, 9 October
Estoy citado en “Dinero”: La caída en la acción de Ecopetrol de Colombia no se debe únicamente a los ataques guerrilleros
English Summary (Resumen en Inglés): I am quoted at length by Dinero (Publicaciones Semana, Bogotá) on the steep fall in value of the stocks of Colombia’s national oil company and largest corporation, Ecopetrol. This had been blamed on FARC and ELN guerrilla attacks on pipelines this year. However, while attacks are up versus 2013, they are significantly below the numbers in several prior years. Others blame the fall on a failure to expand reserves. Indeed, Ecopetrol has a very low exploration-drilling success rate. However, I stressed that discovery of new reserves is not so much the problem as is the need to begin employing enhanced oil production (EOP) methods to Ecopetrol’s existing fields. The percentage of oil Ecopetrol extracts is low. To get more oil out of existing reserves, Ecopetrol needs to learn how to do EOP. And, in certain formations, it has to learn how to drill much deeper. Here is the article …
DINERO | 8/21/2014: No solo violenciaLa caída en la acción de Ecopetrol no se debe únicamente a los ataques guerrilleros. El principal problema de la compañía es operativo: no ha podido encontrar nuevas reservas.
My IP Journal latest: “A firm US-EU partnership on Iran came at great cost, and made a deal possible”
My latest at the IP Journal of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP): US-EU Cooperate on Iranian Nonproliferation: Agreement positions Tehran as regional leader — IP Journal 14/08/2014
Although negotiators failed to reach agreement on Iran’s nuclear program by the late-July deadline set last November, as Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif put it: “We have made enough headway to be able to tell our political bosses that this is a process worth continuing. … I am sure Secretary Kerry will make the same recommendation.” Indeed, Washington, Brussels, and Tehran readily agreed on a four-month extension.
This represents a sea change in tone from the period prior to November 2013, Continue reading
Last week, I was quoted in the Wall Street Journal on why Petróleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) is looking to sell its Citgo refining affiliate in the USA. The key motivation, in my estimation, is to finance projects critical to PDVSA-president Rafael Ramirez’ plans to rebuild PDVSA. My analysis follows the WSJ link …
Cash-Poor Venezuela Weighs Sale of Citgo – Wall Street Journal
ANALYSIS: Raising cash quickly to complete key oil and gas (O&G) projects is critical to PDVSA president Rafael Ramirez’ plan for the company’s recovery.
(Two additional motivations have been offered by analysts: To send more oil to China, and to avoid Citgo’s assets being seized to pay compensation that might soon be awarded to companies PDVSA nationalized while Chavez was alive. However, these are not fundamental reasons, and actually there are various holes in their logic. I elaborate in an upcoming article.)
The driving interest here is to get cash. And, right now it’s a seller’s market for Continue reading
My talk on Iran, NYC | After an Iran-USA deal: A Mideast without democracy, run by Iran & Saudi Arabia?
Appreciation: I am honored to again be invited by my Iranian colleagues in New York, Professors Reza Ghorashi, Hamidah Zangeneh and Hamid Sedghi, to join this panel and discuss the geopolitics of US-Iranian relations. And, my thanks to Prof. Sedghi for reading my paper as I am teaching in Berlin and cannot be with you today. I only ask that those who dislike my message, kindly refrain from shooting the messenger.
The US-Iran nuclear confrontation finally appears close to resolution. This is because both Presidents Obama and Rouhani desire a diplomatic solution, and both countries need to move on. With such an agreement, it is possible that relations will slowly become normalized.
Of particular note—as a direct consequence—are the recent secret negotiations between Iran and Saudi Arabia towards a rapprochement. These were initially facilitated by Oman (e.g. see reports here, here, and here). Until very recently the Saudis had remained fiercely opposed to any US deal with Iran. However, the Saudi’s are realists, and know when it is time to adapt. Figure 1. is a photo of kisses exchanged on 22 April between ex-President Rafsanjani of Iran and King Abdullah’s ambassador to Iran, which caused quite a stir in the region. Agreements reached in these recently revealed negotiations have already significantly affected the presidential-succession crisis in Lebanon, sectarian conflicts in Iraq, and the conflict in Yemen. Next the two sides are expected to negotiate regarding their interests in the Syrian conflict.
In addition, the nature of the US-Saudi relationship is changing, transferring much more responsibility on the Kingdom and its Gulf partners for their own defense–albeit strongly supported with US weapons and logistics. This is part of the US disengagement from direct regional interventions, which will be significantly furthered by a successful US-Iran agreement (e.g., see here and here, and this report on Saudi defense buildup from Balfour at Harvard).
How are these new developments to be understood? Continue reading
Note: These “USA Oil Seminar” posts are extra readings for my students to better understand how US energy policy is developed and to hear the views of US experts. The seminar is: “The Global Oil System & US Policy” at JFK Institute of FU-Berlin.
- This Friday, watch live (or the recording later on): Is the U.S. a Rising Energy Superpower? Implications for Global Markets and Asia, the Middle East, Russia, and Europe. CSIS upcoming talk by Fereidun Fesharaki. FRIDAY, MAY 16, 2014 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM . Moderated by David Pumphrey.
- Read the paper: Fueling a New Order? The New Geopolitical and Security Consequences of Energy |April 15, 2014. By: Bruce Jones, David Steven and Emily O’Brien. Brookings Institute; Washington, DC.
BACKGROUND: This week, the class reading assignments are a couple conference papers I wrote a few years ago on the history and structure of today’s global oil system, and how it grew to replace the neo-colonial oil system. Continue reading