My Kanal24 interview with Nataly Lutsenko, who was in Kyiv, Ukraine on11Jan25, posted here 18Jan.. I explained:
— The stepwise manner in which different Venezuelan oil basins can start being brought to market rapidly while recovery and new production can proceed to more complex and higher-investment projects over time.
Continue readingPosted in Chavez, Energy and Geopolitics, energy war, Enhanced oil production, European Union, Global Oil Market, Maracaibo, Oil Crisis, PDVSA, Putin, Russia, russia sanctions, Sanctions, Trump, U.S. oil, Ukraine, Uncategorized, US Foreign Policy, USA, Venezuela oil
Tagged Energy, geopolitics, Maduro, oil production, oil sector, OPEC, PDVSA, Putin, Russia, russia sanctions, Sanctions, Trump, Ukraine, Ukriaine war, United States, Venezuela, Venezuelan oil
Nataly Lutsenko at Kanal24 TV in Kyiv, invited me again to an interview. We discussed, in detail, what I see as “the oil war” jointly waged by Ukraine and the USA against Russia. Each has its role:
(i) Ukraine is waging an air campaign with drones and missiles against Russian refineries, oil export terminal ports, and oil tankers. This is an audacious and expanding campaign seriously impeding Russian capacity to handle export of the oil its fields produce.
It is important to note, politically, that these attacks are assisted by USA intelligence, as reported in October by the FT. Ukraine’s intelligence chief also spoke of Ukraine’s crucial dependence on US intelligence assets on 20 December, and later on the depth. Unlike the former “oil price cap” strategy of the Biden administration and the early months of the second-Trump administration, the present, much expanded air war on Russian oil is now clearly embraced by the USA.
(ii) For its part, the USA’s role in this oil-war – along with NATO, UK, EU and G7 allies – involves increasingly harsh tariffs and sanctions against Russian oil exports.
Continue readingPosted in energy war, European Union, geopolitics, Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, Oil Crisis, Oil supply, Petrostate, Putin, Russia, russia sanctions, Sanctions, The USA, Trump, Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine war, Uncategorized, USA
Tagged Energy, geopolitics, Kanal24, NATO, negotiations, oil sanctions, oil sector, oil war, peace, peace deal, politics, Russia, tom-odonnell-interviews, Trump, Ukraine, United States, USA, War
My thanks to Tor Klaveness at Kapital, Norway’s oldest and leading, business magazine. Below is an English translation, then the Norwegian original. – Tom O’D.
“Bone-crushing” and “draconian”: The law that could choke Putin’s oil revenues
If peace talks between Ukraine and Russia break down, the US Senate is ready to pass a sanctions package that could strangle Russia’s oil exports. In that case, it could significantly strengthen the oil market.
Energy Published 29 Nov. | Paywall removed, Updated 9 Dec.
By: Tor Klaveness
“President Trump said this weekend, ‘Send me the bill.’ So we have to send him the bill to help end this war.”
This was stated by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham in a panel debate on November 19 with Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal. The debate was moderated by Clayton Seigle, a senior fellow at the think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which also organized the debate.
The bill Graham referred to is the Sanctioning Russia Act , which he is co-sponsoring with Blumenthal. The bill already has the support of 85 of the 100 US senators and would give US authorities the right to impose punitive tariffs of no less than 500 percent on countries importing Russian energy.
With a stick and a carrot
Dr. Thomas O’Donnell is an energy and geopolitical strategist, founder of GlobalBarrel.com and former global fellow at the Wilson Center in Washington, D.C. He believes Congress is now poised to give President Trump an extremely potent weapon.
The proposal is being described as “bone-crushing” and “draconian,” and is set to be voted through almost unanimously in the Senate.
Continue readingPosted in Energy and Geopolitics, Energy and Geostrategy, Energy crisis, energy war, European Union, geopolitics, Global Oil Market, norway, Oil Crisis, Oil prices, Oil supply, OPEC, opec-plus, Petrostate, Putin, Rosneft, Russia, russia sanctions, The USA, Trump, U.S. oil, Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine war, Uncategorized, USA
Tagged Energy, geopolitics, Kapital, Lukoil, norway, oil, oil sector, OPEC, Rosneft, Russia, Sanctions, Tom O'Donnell intervieews, Trump, Ukraine, United States
I was interviewed on CNN International’s “Newsroom” with host Kim Brunhuber – live, Friday, 12 Dec. 2025. The transcript is below. Kim asked about Venezuela’s oil industry, the impact of sanctions, what stricter enforcement could do to the Venezuelan economy, and what the US stands to gain if it ultimately gains greater access to the country’s oil reserves? He also wanted to know what Venezuelans are saying. / CNN says: “The show is broadcast around the world on CNN International, and in the US on our new platform All Access.”
Transcript:
0:01 I want to bring in Thomas O’Donnell, an
0:03 energy and geopolitics strategist at
0:05 GlobalBarrel.com. He’s also a former
0:07 visiting professor at the Central
0:09 University of Venezuela and he joins us
0:11 from Berlin. Thank you so much for being
0:13 here with us. Uh so this seizure, a
0:16 clear escalation here. Uh the White
0:19 House says more tanker seizures could be
0:22 coming. If that happens, I mean, what
0:23 would that do to the Venezuelan economy?
0:28 Well, there’s there’s two aspects here.
Continue readingPosted in Chavez, Energy and Geopolitics, Energy and Geostrategy, energy war, Faja of the Orinoco, geopolitics, Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, heavy oil, Hugo Chávez, Oil supply, PDVSA, Sanctions, shale oil, The USA, Trump, U.S. oil, Ukraine, Uncategorized, USA, Venezuela oil
Tagged Chavismo, donald-trump, Energy, heavy oil, Maduro, news, oil sector, Orinoco, PDVSA, politics, Sanctions, shale oil, Tom O'Donnell interview, Trump, Ukraine, United States, Venezuela, Venezuelan oil
Here is the video of our 10 Nov. event, organized by EIES (European Institute for Energy Security). Our topic was the turn in US Trump administration policy on ending Russia’s war against Ukraine and the Russian oil sector.
My sincere thanks to EIES, and especially Executive Director Albéric Mongrenier, for inviting me along with distinguished energy and geopolitics experts. (Note: EIES is affiliated with, but policy-independent of, SAFE in Washington).
Our distinguished expert panel included:
A central question we addressed was the turn in the Trump administration policy to apply significant coercive measures against the Russian oil sector to undermine the ability of the Putin government to continue its was in Ukraine. We discussed how effective the new sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil might be and what is the synergistic effect of the Ukrainian drone and missile campaign against Russian domestic refineries and oil export terminal ports.
For an update on expanded attacks on Russian Black Sea oil ports and their meaning, see the written comments accompanying my Kanal24 video interview, posted on Monday, 17 Nov. “The US & Ukraine pound Russian oil | my Kanal24, Kyiv“).
Continue readingPosted in Energy and Geopolitics, Energy and Geostrategy, Energy crisis, energy war, Euroepen Union, Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, Oil Crisis, oil price war, Oil prices, Oil supply, Petrostate, Russia, russia sanctions, Saudi Arabia, The USA, U.S. oil, Ukraine war, Uncategorized, US Foreign Policy
Tagged Energy, geopolitics, Lukoil, NATO, oil war, petrostste, politics, Putin, Rosneft, Russia, russia sanctions, Trump, Ukraine, Ukraine war, United States, USA, War
On 5 November, I told Kanal24, Kyiv that a US-Ukraine campaign to disable the Russian petrostate’s oil sector is underway. I stressed that this is a multi-spectral campaign combining (i) severe USA sanctions and secondary tariffs on Russian oil exports in parallel with (ii) Ukrainian military action on oil refineries and export-terminal ports. These attacks are known to be conducted and planned in close cooperation with USA military intelligence (FT,12 Oct.).
This means that an assessment of either aspect of this campaign on its own is inadequate. The synergy of sanctions plus military hits is the issue.
Secondary Sanctions. It has been widely recognized that the USA would need to, as promised, vigorously impose secondary tariffs on any entities that violated its recent tariff announcement. Indeed, on Sunday, President Trump lent support to a bill being drafted in Congress to hit any entity “doing business with Russia.”, not only buying its oil (i.e., “Trump says Republicans drafting bill to sanction countries that trade with Russia, Reuters. November 17). This sounds similar to the Senators Lindsey Graham (R, SC) and Richard Blumenthal’s (D Conn) so-called “bone-crushing sanctions” bill (Politico, 7 June) endorsed by 83 senators on 3 June.
The apparent aim of the port drone and missile attacks is to slash oil exports from Russia’s three or four biggest westward facing terminals. The focus thus far is on Black Sea terminals:
Continue readingPosted in drones, energy war, Global Oil Market, Russia, Sanctions, Trump, Ukraine war, Uncategorized
Tagged drone, Energy, Kanal24, news, Novorossiya, oil, oil sector, OPEC, pertrostate, politics, Putin, refineries, Russia, russian oil, Sanctions, Tom O'Donnell interview, Trump, Ukraine, United States, USA, War
You are invited to register now for Monday, 10 Nov. at 14:00 UK || 15:00 CET || 9:00 ET, an EIES Webinar. [My view: the USA, Ukraine & allies can dismantle the Russian petrostate. My posts on this are linked at the end]. I’m honored to join experts:
Register Now – Allies have so far failed to break Putin’s war machine. The EU recently agreed on a 19th round of sanctions and plans to further ramp down Russian energy supplies. But EU sanctions have shown their limits, political leaders have not been able to use Russia’s frozen assets to aid Ukraine, and Moscow’s hydrocarbons still flow into the Union and other major markets.
Washington’s and London’s most recent sanctions may change the game. As we enter another winter of war, can Europe and the United States build on hard-won Transatlantic convergence to strike a decisive blow to the engine of the Kremlin’s aggression: Russia’s oil exports? Can the EU agree to and successfully manage the phaseout of Russian oil and gas?
Continue readingPosted in Energy and Geopolitics, Energy and Geostrategy, Energy crisis, energy war, European Union, geopolitics, Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, Uncategorized
Tagged China, EIES, energy war, EU sanctions, geopolitics, NATO, oil sector, OPEC, OPEC+, politics, Putin, Russia, Sanctions, Saudi Arabia, Trump, Ukraine, Ukraine war, United States, War
Register at Opportunity Institute for Foreign Affairs | A two-day expert seminar in Warsaw. Agenda below. I’m honored to be invited to co-chair.
See the agenda below. If of interest, please register. Space is limited – acceptance is not guaranteed. Here’s the info, then the agenda:
⚛️ NUCLEAR ENERGY IN CENTRAL ASIA: REGIONAL ASPIRATIONS AND GLOBAL STAKES 🌍
On 4–5 September 2025, Warsaw will host a closed seminar focused on one of the key topics for the security and development of the region – nuclear energy in Central Asia.
During the two-day seminar, experts will discuss:
✅ the aspirations of the region’s countries related to the development of nuclear energy,
✅ the political, economic and environmental implications for the region,
✅ the prospects for international cooperation and further development.
The event is organised by The Opportunity Institute for Foreign Affairs and is closed to the public, but it is possible to register to attend using the registration form. A select group of invited guests will have the opportunity to participate in the discussion.
Posted in Azerbaijan, Central Asia, China, Energy and Geostrategy, Kazakhstan, nuclear energy, Nuclear power, rosatom, Russia, Uncategorized, USA, Uzbekistan, Westinghouse
Tagged Climate Change, Energy, geopolitics, Nuclear, Opportunity Institute, Opportunity Think Tank, philosophy, politics, rosatom, Russia, sustainability, Ukraine, United States
Dear colleagues and friends — there are two key energy aspects in this detailed interview with Nataliia Lutsenko of Channel 24, an all-news TV channel from Kyiv: (1) Ukraine’s attritional war on Russia’s domestic oil sector and (2) whether Ukrainian long-range drone capacities will be called upon (viz., permitted by the USA) to accomplish what the new US policy of ending Russian oil exports seeks to accomplish through secondary tariffs. Elaborating:
(1) Domestic Russian oil refining capacities: I explained that, If Ukraine can sustain these new drone attacks at a faster rate than Russia can repair them, this will be a major blow to the supply of diesel fuel required by the Russian war economy, especially to war industries, railways (i.e., to locomotive fuel), for harvesting of crops this fall, and to supply the war front and occupied Ukraine. The last time this was tried on a large scale, roughly two years ago, Ukraine caused significant hardships to Russian refining, but ultimately it did not achieve sustained damage at a rate necessary to collapse Russia’s immense national refining capacity. However, as I pointed out to Nataliia, Ukraine’s drone production and sophistication is now greater, and chances of success therefore better. We should know in some weeks or perhaps a few months if Ukraine can now overwhelm Russia’s repair capacities.
Already, fuel prices have spiked in Russia, with Moscow deciding to insure refiners receive a special subsidy they would otherwise not get due to high prices they are charging for fuel, to address difficulties with the renewed drone war. (Russian Refiners Hit Rough Patch, Hope for State Support, E.I., 20August25, [paywall].)
(2) Russian oil export capacities: Why does Ukraine’s war on the Russian oil sector not include destruction of Russia’s three westward facing oil ports, the terminals it uses to export the overwhelming bulk of its oil exports? These are Ust-Luga and Primorsk in the Baltic, and Novorossiya on the Black Sea. Why has the oil export capacities of these ports essentially never been hit?
Continue readingPosted in diesel, drones, Energy and Geopolitics, energy war, gas, gazprom, Interview, natural gas, Oil supply, OPEC, opec-plus, Putin, Russia, Sanctions, The USA, Trump, U.S. oil, Ukraine, Ukraine war, Uncategorized, USA
Tagged channel 24 kyiv, China, drone strikes, economy, Energy, geopolitics, India, oil ports, oil sector, oil war of 2025, politics, Russia, Russian refineries, secondary tariffs, Tom O'Donnell intervieews, Trump, Ukraine, Ukraine war, United States, War
This Friday, Trump and Putin will talk in Alaska about the future of Ukraine. Why has Putin asked for this meeting?
The two have spoken repeatedly on the phone …. but, something changed. As I indicated in my previous post (here), Trump has turned from his preferred plan to end the war, to one of confrontation and coercion of Putin (what I have called “Plan B”), aiming to force him into halting his war of aggression and seriously discuss peace proposals.
It was an honor to speak with Natalia Lutsenko of Channel 24 TV in Kyiv, and the Ukrainian national audience on these heavy issues of war and peace. The video interview – about 34 minutes long – goes into some detail of my analysis of the balance of forces.
Continue readingPosted in China, Climate Change, Ehergiewende, Energiewende, Germany, oil price war, Oil prices, OPEC, opec-plus, PDVSA weakness, Uncategorized
Tagged Energy, geopolitics, oil sanctions, oil sector, OPEC, Russia, Sanctions, Tariffs, Ukraine, Ukraine war, United States
In the last two weeks, I was in Warsaw twice. First, for the Three Seas One Opportunity conference (3S1O) on 27 April, organized by the Opportunity Think Tank, where I co-chaired a session. This was an official side event of the Three Seas Summit (a ministerial conference). Second, for the Warsaw Security Forum’s Public Dialogue. (WSF) 7 May. I will soon post here about both these very interesting events.
However, I was asked by TVP, the Polish national broadcaster, to come to their Warsaw studios on 8 May, the day after the WSF, for a live-on-air commentary on the recent drama in the German Bundestag (parliament) where the new Chancellor, Fredrich Merz, embarrassingly failed to get the necessary votes on the first ballot. He finally succeeded on second ballot, after intense politicking and consultations within his party, the center-right CDU, in its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, and in his coalition-partner party, the center-left SPD.
So, first; I was asked to explain this surprising electoral fiasco for the new chancellor, Merz, and his party, and how it may have weakened his new government.
Secondly, Merz immediately, after being sworn in, undertook a one-day whirlwind trip to Paris and then Warsaw, to visit his prospective main partners in the European Union, President Macron of France and Prime Minister Tusk of Poland. (Continued ….)
Continue readingPosted in Ehergiewende, Euroepen Union, France, geopolitics, German deindustrialization, Germany, Interview, Putin, Russia, Saudi Arabia, The USA, Trump, Ukraine, Uncategorized, USA
Tagged Deindustrialization, European security, geopolitics, German crisis, German election, Germany, Merz, migration, Poland, politics, Russia, Trump, Tusk, Ukraine, Ukraine war, USA
El día de Pascua, 20.04, me entrevistaron en directo por radio, en muchas ciudades de Europa y del hemisferio occidental. On Easter Sunday, April 20, 2025, I was interviewed live in several cities of Europe and the Western Hemisphere. The interview was in Spanish. An English Google translation is below (RHS column). The topic was the negotiations of the Trump USA administration between Russia and Ukraine to end the war. Tom OD.)
Mi agradecimiento por la invitación de María Eugenia Plano, productora del programa radial Corresponsales en Línea, realizado por las corresponsales de los diarios Clarín y La Nación en París y Londres (María Laura Avignolo), París (Danielle Raymond), Madrid (Silvia Pisani), Berlin (Araceli Viceconte), Washington ( Paula Lugones) y San Pablo (Cristina Veiga) con la conducción de Silvia Naishtat (Editora de Economía de Clarín). en vivo y en directo para Radio Ciudad en Buenos Aires, los días domingos de 10 a 12 AM Hora Argentina. My thanks for the invitation from María Eugenia Plano, producer of the radio program Corresponsales en Línea, made by the correspondents of the newspapers Clarín and La Nación in Paris and London (María Laura Avignolo), Paris (Danielle Raymond), Madrid (Silvia Pisani), Berlin (Araceli Viceconte), Washington (Paula Lugones) and Sao Paulo (Cristina Veiga) hosted by Silvia Naishtat (Economics Editor of Clarín). live and direct for Radio Ciudad in Buenos Aires, Sundays from 10 to 12 AM Argentine time.
Continue readingPosted in Euroepen Union, geopolitics, Latin America, NATO, Russia, Sanctions, The USA, Trump, Ukraine, Ukraine war, Uncategorized, US Foreign Policy, USA, War
Tagged espanol, geopolitics, Interview Tom O'Donnell, Paz, peace, peace negotiations, Putin, Rusia, Russia, Spanish language, Trump, Ukraine, Ukraine war, Ukrania, United States, USA, zelensky
Wednesday, I was quoted repeatedly in Newsweek (USA) by Brendan Cole (London) 23 April: “Russian Economy Dealt Blow With Slumping Oil Prices,” And, Below: a Monday audio of my related analysis.
This will only be done if Trump decides he needs to use harsh coercion to force Putin into an acceptable peace deal with Ukraine, AND if Trump were willing to impose lasting harm on the older Russian oil fields.
Posted in Energy crisis, energy war, European Union, Germany, Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, Oil Crisis, Oil prices, Oil supply, Putin, Russia, The USA, Trade policy, Trump, Ukraine, Uncategorized, USA
Tagged geopolitics, Newsweek, oil, oil prices, oil sanctions, oil sector, peace deal, Russia, russian sanctions, tom-odonnell-interviews, Trump, Ukraine, Ukraine war
Xi Jinping has still not built China’s domestic market to escape its trade-war vulnerabilities from over-dependence on exports, a weakness he openly discussed back in February 2012 on his USA tour before becoming premier.
For the USA, Trump had apparently planned to have resolved the Ukraine war and in some way undermined the Russia-China alliance, inducing Russia to move closer to the USA before going after China. But, ending the war has proven far more difficult than he anticipated. His lack of success with Russia will weigh on his ability to negotiate from a position of strength with all the countries he is competing to win away from China’s geoeconomics orbit such as India, Viet Nam, Cambodia, Philippines, Thailand and etc. — the states that Treasury Secretary would say are in the “yellow zone” as opposed to the USA#s closest allies such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, in the so-called “green zone.” For details – see this post on my blog,
Continue readingPosted in China, Euroepen Union, geopolitics, international relations, Poland, Putin, Russia, Sanctions, Tariff war, Tariffs, The USA, Trade and Commerce, Trade policy, Trump, Ukraine, Ukraine war, Uncategorized, USA
Tagged China, development, geopolitics, peace deal, Putin, Russia, Tariffs, Tom O'Donnell interviews, Trade war, Trump, Ukraine, Ukraine war, United States
My gratitude to LRT.lt journalist Vaida Kalinkaitė-Matuliauskienė for this in-depth print interview. We spoke just after Baltic states had disconnected from the Russian-Belarus electrical grid, BRELL, and had connected with the European grid. This was a complex and costly project, executed rapidly and flawlessly. [My comment continue below, after the English (first link) and Lithuanian (second link) versions:]
If you had stayed in BRELL, it would have been much easier for Russia
[a Google translation PDF]12 Mar 2025 — Of course, this zone is not only yours, it is connected to the European Union (EU). Thomas O’Donnell | Warsaw Conference “Energy Security in the Middle and… || LRThttps://www.lrt.lt › Verslas ||
jeigu būtumėte likę BRELL, Rusijai būtų daug lengviau
12 Mar 2025 — Žinoma, ši zona ne tik jūsų, ji sujungta su Europos Sąjunga (ES). Thomas O’Donnell | Varšuvos konferencijos „Energetinis saugumas Vidurio ir… || LRThttps://www.lrt.lt › Verslas || Translate this
The Baltic states’ impetus was obvious: a deep mistrust of Russia after its 2022 cutoff of half of all European gas imports intended to pressure EU states to abandon solidarity with Ukraine as Russia invaded it. So, switching to the European grid is a great relief. However, the dangers haven’t ended.
Continue readingPosted in Baltic States, Ehergiewende, Energy and Environment, Energy and Geopolitics, Energy crisis, energy transition, energy war, Estonia, Euroepen Union, Finaland, gas crisis, Germany, green deal, Lithuania, natural gas, norway, nuclear energy, Nuclear power, Russia, Three Seas, Ukraine war, Uncategorized
Tagged 3s1o, Baltic Sea, Baltic States, BRELL, electricity grid, Energy, Estonia, Germany, green deal, Latvia, Lithuania, LRT.Lt, NATO, news, Nuclear, politics, Renewables, Russia, Tom O'Donnell intervieews, Ukraine
