To watch at Bloomberg, click this URL
Both Christof Rühl (bio) and Jack Kemp (bio) had great, data-driven media this past week. I too addressed these issues (spoiler: I assess Trump is not bluffing on Iran talks, and oil supply remains adequate.) My conflict-trajectory take differs a bit from Chrisof, perhaps closer to Jack K here.. My Al Jazeera was just after Trump announced talks.
Posted in energy war, Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, Hormuz, Iran, Iran nuclear, negotiations, oil, Oil Crisis, Oil prices, Oil supply, Trump, Uncategorized, USA, War
Tagged Christof Ruhl, Energy, geopolitics, Hormuz, iea, Iran, Iran war, Jack Kemp, John Kemp, negotiations, oil market, oil price, oil sector, Oil supply, Tom O'Donnell interview, Trump
Dear readers, This paper, which I wrote in 2008-09, analyzed the evolution of interests underlying the US-Iran crisis till then, interests which persist in the 2026 US-Iran war.
That is, Trump’s “USA Energy Dominance” strategy does not seek to fundamentally alter the structure or logic of the post-1973 global, market-centered, USA-led-and-protected oil order. However, to preserve it, the USA now feels the necessity of removing the Iranian mullahs as custodians of Iran’s oil for persistently insisting on projecting power and seeking hegemony in the energy-critical Gulf Region.
What is new from 2008, is the bipartisan urgency felt in Washington to renovate the existing oil market-and-security order, reconsolidating the USA as primary arbiter of energy flows via Hormuz to both China and US allied and friendly states of the Indo-Pacific region. In addition, to be capable of significantly blocking Russian oil exports and thereby its petrostate-fueled aggression elsewhere.
In particular, it mush achieve these aims, vis-a-vis Russia and China, without causing global oil shocks. (continued in full-column below …)
Posted in Energy and Geostrategy, geopolitics, Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, Hormuz, Iran, Iran nuclear, LNG,, oil, Oil Crisis, Oil supply, OPEC, Persian Gulf, The USA, U.S. oil, Ukraine war, Uncategorized, USA
Tagged China, Energy, geopolitics, Global Oil System, Gulf states, Iran, Iran nuclear program, Iran war, Israel, Middle East, oil sector, OPEC, Persian Gulf, Political Economy, politics, Russia, Trump, United States, US Energy Dominance
Mar 12, 2026. Is the Iran war about the US containing China? For my part, I explained how control of Hormuz would give the US two key levers:
Posted in China, Energy and Geopolitics, energy war, geopolitics, Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, Hormuz, Iran, Iran nuclear, oil, Oil Crisis, Oil prices, Persian Gulf, Putin, Russia, Trump, Ukraine war, Uncategorized, USA
Tagged China, geopolitics, Hormuz, iea, Iran, Israel, news, oil market, oil sector, oil war, politics, straights of hormuz, taiwan, TRT London, Trump, United States, Venezuela
I was a bit insistent that the spike during the day today, to over $100 at some point, was overblown.
As I mentioned, Fatih Birol at IEA (I forgot to mention also Chris Wright, USA Secretary of Energy),who had said the same thing, insisting last Friday that there is plenty of oil in the market. (See Wright and Bloomberg’s Steven Stapczynski elaborate here). That is NOT a problem now.
And, in the interview, I detailed some facts about this (e.g., before the war started nine days ago, there were about 1.4 billion(!) barrels floating on the water, an unprecedented amount, and the Russians had nowhere to put their unsellable oil).
So, It turns out that late Monday evening news (EST USA time), the news coming from the USA vindicates my suspicions. For now, there is no plan by the administration to release SPR reserves into the market.
Notice what I explained about this likely being a short-lived boost for Russian oil That is, after the Venezuelan campaign, if the Trump admin. Iran campaign works, both China and Russia will be in a very restricted position in the now-USA tightly controlled international oil market supply chain.
Here is the WSJ saying the prices of oil dropped quite a bit, and the stock market rebounded as well by the end of the day. Following that is a Bloomberg take too.
Continue readingPosted in Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, Hormuz, Iran, Oil prices, Uncategorized
Tagged China, economy, Energy, finance, geopolitics, gold, Hormuz, iea, Investing, Iran war, oil sector, OPEC, politics, Russia, SPR, Tom O'Donnell interview, Trump, Ukraine, United States, USA, Venezuela
This is a longish, ca. 30 minute video. Host Nataly Lutsenko kindly told me she wanted to make a long interview.
(During time of crisis like this, I have so many TV and press interviews that I don’t have time to put most of them online. So, I will refrain from writing long posts to accompany videos to get more online, if I think they are useful interviews. – Tom O’D)
Posted in China, Energy and Geopolitics, Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, Iran, Iran nuclear, Iran sanctions, Israel, LNG, oil, Oil supply, OPEC, Persian Gulf, Petrostate, Putin, Qatar, Russia, russia sanctions, Saudi Arabia, The USA, Trump, Ukraine, Ukraine war, Uncategorized, USA, Venezuela oil
Tagged China, Energy, geopolitics, Hormuz, Iran, Iran war, IRCG, Kanal24, LNG, oil sector, OPEC, Russia, Tom O'Donnell interview, Trump, Ukraine, USA, Venezuela
Last night on TRT World Global News (London), I emphasized that despite the modest spike in oil prices from about $70 to $78 per barrel as of yesterday, Trump has an historically unprecedented advantage for exercising “US Energy Dominance.”
The campaigns against Venezuela and Iran, plus the turning of the Indian oil-consuming behemoth towards USA and Western interests vs Russian oil, are examples of the geopolitical leverage the USA’s now-dominant role in global oil affairs has afforded the Trump administration.
This oil-market advantage comes mainly from of two things:
Continue readingPosted in Energy and Geopolitics, Energy crisis, EU gas, Global Oil Market, India, Iran, Iran nuclear, Israel, nuclear energy, oil, Oil Crisis, Oil prices, Oil supply, OPEC, opec-plus, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, The USA, Trump, Uncategorized, USA
Tagged China, Energy, geopolitics, Global Oil Market, Iran, iranian nuclear, Israel, israeli-iran war, oil price, oil sector, OPEC, United States
I was invited on TRT-World, London, 24 June, for a panel after US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites (see the panelist lineup below. I answered two questions at some length – see the 2nd video.)
In summary: Trump claims USA Operation Midnight Hammer “obliterated” the country’s nuclear capacity, but how much have they really been degraded?
My analysis is that it does not matter. If the USA decides to bomb again at will, without Iran having air defenses the USA and Israel can destroy or disrupt most any renewed Iranian work on its nuclear or conventional missile program. If, as he stated, repeat bombings as needed are Trump’s intention, then this should be the case. This now leaves Iran very little negotiating leverage. The regional proxies it always intended to use for retaliation in just such a scenario have been decimated by Israel.
Therefore, there is a high likelihood Iran will be forced by Trump to negotiate from a now much weaker position. If Tehran resists, it could fall back to rely on state-sponsored terrorist methods, which are of limited usefulness for maintaining a modern functioning state and economy.
Overall, I emphasize that this “12 Day War” has been especially motivated, by Trump, to assure USA Gulf allies that they can now safely enter into the Abraham Accords with Israel and the USA, establishing a new regional security structure. Trump will be constrained to do whatever is necessary, militarily and in negotiations, to insure the Iranian threat these allies have felt acutely remains under control. In turn, if these accords, which Trump’s chief negotiator, Steve Witkoff, was reportedly already working on among the USA’s Gulf Arab allies immediately after the USA bombing is intended to allow the USA to move on, focusing more squarely on Great Power competition elsewhere.
This is my general assessment. There are many details and some possible derailments here, of course. – Tom O’D.
Continue readingPosted in 12 Day Waar, Iran, Iran nuclear, Israel, The USA, Trump, Uncategorized, USA, War
Tagged Abraham Accords, B2 bombers, bombing, bunkder buster, geopolitics, Gulf states, Iran, Iran nuclear program, Israel, Middle East, Netanyahu, news, Nuclear, politics, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tom O'Donnell interview, TRT London, TRT World, Trump, UAE, United States
The ceasefire Trump brokered will hopefully end this “12-Day War.” I want to discuss here why this war did not trigger a global energy crisis. [Here’s what I said about this to Al Jazeera last week, in the last five paragraphs. A PDF is also embedded below. I’ll also post a TRT-London show on Iran’s nuclear strategy, recorded Tuesday, soon.]
To assess the risk to energy supplies, understanding the aims of the combatants is key. Throughout this war, it was the USA-Israel side setting the agenda, and there were two strategic aims they could pursue. One was to “only” destroy Iran’s nuclear program and its existing conventional regional power-projection capacities. The second was to go beyond this to undermine the viability of the Islamic Republic, up to forcing a regime change. Why do I say this?
Continue readingPosted in Energy and Geopolitics, Energy and Geostrategy, Energy crisis, energy war, gaza, Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, Iran, Iran nuclear, Iran sanctions, LNG, natural gas, negotiations, nuclear energy, Nuclear power, oil, Oil Crisis, Oil prices, Oil supply, OPEC, opec-plus, Persian Gulf, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, The USA, Uncategorized
Tagged 12-day war, bombing, Energy, geopolitics, Iran, iranian nuclear, Israel, israeli-iran war, Middle East, missiles, Netanyahu, news, nuclear program, oil sector, Persian Gulf, politics, straights of hormuz, Trump, United States
At first, we focused on IEA warnings of a possible EU winder gas shortage due to supply-and-demand mismatches. I agree and expand on the IEA points.
Second, I explained that if Israel retaliates against Iran so strongly that it threatens the regimes survival, or is seen as intending to provoke regime change, then the Iranian leadership will have “nothing to lose” by in-turn escalating to the maximum. Aside from unleashing the maximum response of its proxies surrounding Israel, Tehran’s most potent weapon would be to spark a global oil and gas crisis.
Consider oil: Iran can either shut down the Straights of Hormuz (or simply make them unsafe for tankers) and/or, it can use missiles and drones to destroy significant parts of Saudi, UAE and other Gulf oil facilities, including perhaps even Azerbaijan’s as some Iranian propagandists have threatened.
Consider natural gas: Shutting the Straights or directly hitting Qatar’s massive LNG exports infrastructure would immediately stop Qatari LNG exports. As the world’s second largest LNG exporter, this would immediately cause a separate global natural gas crisis.
Continue readingPosted in Al Watan, Cairo,, Energy and Geopolitics, Energy and Geostrategy, Energy crisis, energy war, EU gas, Euroepen Union, gas, gas crisis, geopolitics, Global Oil Market, international relations, Interview, Iran, Iran nuclear, Iran sanctions, Israel, LNG, natural gas, oil, Oil Crisis, Oil supply, OPEC, opec-plus, Qatar, Russia, Sanctions, Saudi Arabia, The USA, Ukraine, Ukraine war, Uncategorized, USA
Tagged Al Watan, Biden, Energy, iea, Iran, Israel, Middle East, natural gas, Nuclear, oil, oil market, Russia, straights of hormuz, Tom O'Donnell interview, Ukraine, USA, War
Again, oil security is determined by both global-market balances and geostrategic realities – at present the Mideast war and Russia’s War on Ukraine. My analyses this weekend were featured in: (a) an AlHurra video (LHS English, RHS Arabic), and below these (b) a detailed BBC-Cairo print interview (LHS English Google Translate, RHS Arabic original). where I make similar points as my Friday video in Warsaw.
My BBC (CAIRO) print interview in Arabic and English (Google Translate):
Continue readingPosted in Energy and Geopolitics, Energy and Geostrategy, Iran, Iran nuclear, Iran sanctions, Israel, oil, Oil Crisis, Oil prices, Oil supply, OPEC, opec-plus, Persian Gulf, Russia, Sanctions, Saudi Arabia, The USA, Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine war, Uncategorized
Tagged Alhurra, BBC, economy, Energy, gaza, geopolitics, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Middle East, oil, oil sector, OPEC, politics, Russia, Ukraine, Ukraine war, United States
Will Israel hit Iranian oil infrastructure? And, what part of it? To what effect on markets, and geopolitics, (i.e., Mideast, OPEC, Russia and Ukraine war)? A video report.
MAIN POINTS (see transcript):
1. What if Israel hits Iran oil infrastructure in retaliation for missile strikes on Tel Aviv on Tuesday night? 1.a. The difference effects of hitting Iranian refineries vs oil export terminals In itself, neither target would make big difference in the market. The market would immediately jump, of course, but in principle the effect would be small. 1b OPEC+ and Western Hemisphere have plenty of spare capacity.
2. Consider Saudi market tactics … reportedly they want to now go for share over price support, as price support is failing after well over a year of output cuts (about 6 mb/d). Note: Shortly after this recording the Saudis repudiated the WSJ that reported the switch in tactics to defending share. Likely they’ll now want to wait and see what happens to Iranian exports, or if this Israel-Iran tit-for-tat gets out of hand.
Continue readingPosted in Energy and Geopolitics, Global Oil Market, Iran, Israel, oil, Oil prices, OPEC, opec-plus, Persian Gulf, Putin, Russia, Sanctions, Saudi Arabia, The USA, Ukraine, Ukraine war, Uncategorized
Tagged Energy, geopolitics, global oil market, Iran, Israel, Isreal, Middle East, oil, oil price caps, oil sector, OPEC, Russia, Tom O'Donnell interview, Ukraine, Warsaw Old Town, Warsaw Security Forum, WSF2024
This epitomizes today’s LNG-geostrategic nexus.
One way to look at the Turkey-Shell LNG deal is that Mr. Erdogan wants Turkey to avoid Germany’s blunder in relying heavily on Putin’s Russia for its imported natural gas. He obviously wants Turkey to diversify its natural gas imports. In this regard, the opening comment by Tom Marzec-Manser, head of Gas Analytics at ICIS, London, that “this is a big deal” for Turkey – is correct.
Turkey uses about 50 bcm (billion cubic meters) of natural gas per year. This is currently supplied almost entirely via pipelines, mainly from Russia, also from Iran and from Azerbaijan. As I pointed out, Mr. Erdogan is well aware how Putin cut off German and EU Russian gas supplies as a geostrategic weapon in preparation for his full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This plunged Germany and the entire EU into the acute 2022-2023 European energy crisis. Germany, especially, still has not fully recovered.
Continue readingPosted in Azerbaijan, Germany, Iran, LNG, LNG,, natural gas, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine war, Uncategorized
Tagged Azerbaijan, Botas, economy, Energy, geopolitics, Germany, Iran, LNG, natural gas, news, Russia, TRT, Turkey, Turkiye
I was asked by Debbie Mohblatt for the Jerusalem Post on Thursday: Why can’t Israel make unilateral decisions [i.e., as to whether and how to attack Iran]? Two other geopolitical experts interviewed were Jack Kennedy, head of Middle East and North Africa Country Risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence, and Noa Meir, founder of the Gideon Meir Diplomacy Center. My quoted remarks follow, the full article is here, and farther below I put today’s performative Israeli response in perspective..
Israel dependent on American decisions
Dr. Thomas O’Donnell, a global fellow of the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington who teaches in Berlin, told The Media Line that Israel was very dependent on American decisions. He added that in this case, Israel could carry out some small-scale symbolic response that would not necessarily draw an additional Iranian attack leading to escalation.
“Israel has always gotten huge amounts of support from the United States—military and otherwise. It’s quite clear that it [Israel] can’t sustain a protracted war, especially a protracted war of the nature it would be against Iran, without the United States’ support, and there’s no other country that is capable or willing to give that support,” he said.
O’Donnell added that very few of the world’s countries can make these kinds of decisions without considering their allies. “A small country can go to war with another small country. But if this is going to bring in larger powers, they have to be very careful,” he continued.
… O’Donnell explained that ever since President George W. Bush’s administration, which came before Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump, the United States has been very clear that it made a mistake by putting too many boots on the ground in the Middle East and that it must get out of the region. “It has to focus on great power competition against Russia and China. And this is becoming more urgent by the day,” he continued, explaining part of the rationale behind the US not wanting a major escalation between Israel and Iran. (Read the entire article for the others’ comments.)
Continue reading
Posted in Biden, gaza, geopolitics, Iran, Israel, Uncategorized, USA, War
Tagged attack, Biden, gaza, geopolitics, Great Power Competition, Iran, Israel, Jerusalem post, missiles, regional war, Tom ODonnell interview, United States, USA, War
Re: Urgente Pedido de Entrevista Periodística – Corresponsales Clarín y La Nación – Argentina
De Maria E… … Fri, Apr 29, 11:50 PM
Dr. O ´Donnell, … Estas son las preguntas para la entrevista del domingo:
1¿Alemania tiene otra posibilidad que no sea seguir comprando el gas ruso? ¿Cuáles serían sus otras opciones?
Repuesta: Antes que nada, muchas gracias por esta oportunidad de hablar con su audiencia argentina.
Pues, debo señalar que hay dos problemas diferentes: el suministro de petróleo ruso a Alemania y Europa y el suministro de gas ruso a Alemania y Europa. Me preguntas por el gas. El gas es mucho más difícil para Europa y para Alemania que el petróleo Hay dos casos: una reducción gradual o parcial de gas o un corte inmediato.
Un corte gradual se puede manejar bastante bien. Ahora Putin está tratando de dividir y conquistar Europa cortando el suministro de gas a Polonia y Bulgaria.
Un recorte inmediato, ya sea por parte de Putin o debido a las sanciones de la UE, crearía una gran crisis energética en Europa. Sin embargo, es importante entender que, al final, Putin está en una posición mucho más débil.
Si Putin corta todos los suministros de gas a Europa, ahora no hay suficiente gas en el mercado mundial para compensar. Pero Occidente, y especialmente EE. UU., la administración Biden, se ha estado preparando para esto al menos dos meses antes de que Putin invadiera Ucrania, incluso antes de que Europa creyera las advertencias de EE. UU. de que Putin atacaría Ucrania.
Continue readingPosted in Berlin, Climate Change, Ehergiewende, Energiewende, Energy and Geopolitics, Energy and Geostrategy, EU gas, Euroepen Union, gas crisis, Gazprom, gazprom, geopolitics, Germany, Global Oil Market, international relations, Iran, Iran nuclear, Iran sanctions, Latin America, Nord Stream, oil, Oil Crisis, Oil prices, Oil supply, Poland, Putin, Russia, Sanctions, The USA, Ukraine, Ukraine, Uncategorized
Tagged Buenos Aires, Energy, geopolitics, Germany, oil sector, Putin, Radio Clarin, Russia, Sanctions, Ukraine, United States, War
It was my pleasure to be with Thierry Bros of Sciences Po University, Paris, and Peter Zalmayev, Ukrainian security analyst and executive director of Eurasian Democracy Initative on David Foster’s Roundtable on TRT World, London, broadcast 9 June 2021.
I discussed Biden’s apparent reasoning for waiving Nord Stream 2 sanctions:
First off, the German government of Angela Merkel simply would not cooperate otherwise. Allowing her pet energy project to go forward was the price she had demanded for trans-Atlantic “unity” before Biden’s summit with Putin.
(Aside: My research in Berlin and elsewhere has convinced me that, at no point from the late-Trump administration through Biden’s six months in office, did the German side actually engage in any meaningful “negotiation” or discussions with the US side to seek to find some compromise or to initiate a moratorium on construction. Not until Biden waived sanctions on Nord Stream 2 AG, and decided not to sanction any German firms inolved in construction did Merkel show any real interest in discussions. She emphasized her change of attitude on negotiating with Biden about: “what now are also the necessary commonalities in the relationship with Russia” in comments during a German national broadcast interview immediately following Biden’s sanctions waiver. Until this waiver, she had held up any real discussion of the pressing issues of trans-Atlantic unity-in-general, whcih urgently needed attention.
This, IMHO, again indicates the correctness of my assessment of the depth of the split in US-German relations that has festered since at least the Obama administration. See Nord Stream 2: Berlin-Washington Mutual Intransigence Shows Transatlantic Divide on Russia | My AICGS Analysis October 10, 2020)
Secondly, as the EU and NATO allies all realize, Biden has to have this summit with Putin for a number of reasons. As I indicated on the show, the summit is needed to discuss:
Continue readingPosted in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Berlin, Energy and Geopolitics, Euroepen Union, geopolitics, Germany, Iran, Iran nuclear, Nord Stream 2, Obama, Putin, Russia, Syria, The USA, Ukraine, Uncategorized, US Foreign Policy
Tagged angela merkel, Biden, G7, geopolitics, Germany, Iran, NATO, Nord Stream 2, Sanctions, USA foreign policy, Vladimir Putin
The Global Barrel 