I told Sky (UAE), clearly the Hormuz is now “a game of chicken” … who can wait the longest and bear the most pain. I try to look objectively at the two sides.
a) On the Iran side, their oil exports are reportedly zero since about 15 July. None of their oil ships seem to have left Hormuz. A massive accumulation of Iranian oil cargo sits on ships towards Malaysia and Singapore, while perhaps 53 loaded ships are stuck in the Gulf due to the US Navy blockade. For a petrostate, this is devastating. In addition, all Iranian ports are blocked form exporting or importing anything. What oil can perhaps leave by train to China, say 70,000 barrels taking two weeks, is painfully small and costly. Trump had declared a big increase in blocking payments and financial transfers to and from Iran, but if no one is selling anything in either direction, there will be less and less financial flows to block. This is dire. It does not mean Iran will surrender, or even talk, but it is clearly devastating.
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