Category Archives: norway

“Bone-crushing” & “draconian”: The law that could choke Putin’s oil revenues. [My interview with Norway’s ‘Kapital’]

My thanks to Tor Klaveness at Kapital, Norway’s oldest and leading, business magazine. Below is an English translation, then the Norwegian original. – Tom O’D.

“Bone-crushing” and “draconian”: The law that could choke Putin’s oil revenues

If peace talks between Ukraine and Russia break down, the US Senate is ready to pass a sanctions package that could strangle Russia’s oil exports. In that case, it could significantly strengthen the oil market.

Energy Published 29 Nov. | Paywall removed, Updated 9 Dec.

By: Tor Klaveness

“President Trump said this weekend, ‘Send me the bill.’ So we have to send him the bill to help end this war.”

Dr. Thomas O’Donnell, energy and geopolitical strategist

This was stated by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham in a panel debate on November 19 with Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal. The debate was moderated by Clayton Seigle, a senior fellow at the think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which also organized the debate.

The bill Graham referred to is the Sanctioning Russia Act , which he is co-sponsoring with Blumenthal. The bill already has the support of 85 of the 100 US senators and would give US authorities the right to impose punitive tariffs of no less than 500 percent on countries importing Russian energy.

PHOTO: Alexander Kazakov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP/NTB

With a stick and a carrot

Dr. Thomas O’Donnell is an energy and geopolitical strategist, founder of GlobalBarrel.com and former global fellow at the Wilson Center in Washington, D.C. He believes Congress is now poised to give President Trump an extremely potent weapon.

The proposal is being described as “bone-crushing” and “draconian,” and is set to be voted through almost unanimously in the Senate.

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My LRT.lt Lithuania interview: As Baltic states quit Russia’s grid, someone’s cutting their undersea cables & pipes | Baltics: Beware German-style overdependence on variable renewables

Credit: Vėjo jėgainė | J. Stacevičiaus / LRT nuotr.

My gratitude to LRT.lt journalist Vaida Kalinkaitė-Matuliauskienė for this in-depth print interview. We spoke just after Baltic states had disconnected from the Russian-Belarus electrical grid, BRELL, and had connected with the European grid. This was a complex and costly project, executed rapidly and flawlessly. [My comment continue below, after the English (first link) and Lithuanian (second link) versions:]

If you had stayed in BRELL, it would have been much easier for Russia
[a Google translation PDF]12 Mar 2025 — Of course, this zone is not only yours, it is connected to the European Union (EU). Thomas O’Donnell | Warsaw Conference “Energy Security in the Middle and… || LRThttps://www.lrt.lt › Verslas ||

jeigu būtumėte likę BRELL, Rusijai būtų daug lengviau
12 Mar 2025 — Žinoma, ši zona ne tik jūsų, ji sujungta su Europos Sąjunga (ES). Thomas O’Donnell | Varšuvos konferencijos „Energetinis saugumas Vidurio ir… || LRThttps://www.lrt.lt › Verslas || Translate this

The Baltic states’ impetus was obvious: a deep mistrust of Russia after its 2022 cutoff of half of all European gas imports intended to pressure EU states to abandon solidarity with Ukraine as Russia invaded it. So, switching to the European grid is a great relief. However, the dangers haven’t ended.

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NAPEC ’24, Oran: Why does the EU insist Algeria develop hydrogen & a big pipeline despite Equinor & Shell refusals due to “no customers”?

I explain EU/German motives for seeking “green H2” import pipes, then (at time 11:30) questions I raised moderating at NAPEC re. EU-Algerian pipeline MOU.

Here’s my video from Oran, Algeria, after a very informative “Africa and Mediterranean Energy & Hydrogen Exhibition & Conference,” NAPEC 2024 (video highlights here). Two parts to my analysis:

First, (up to time 11:30) I explain the rationale and impetus for the EU drive for massive green hydrogen gas imports. This is primarily driven by Germany’s increasing desperation at being locked into over-reliance on weather-variable renewables, whose high prices are sparking its “deindustrialization,” especially after losing Russian gas pipeline imports due to Putin’s war on Ukraine, plus due to the own-goal shutting down of their zero-carbon, amortized (paid for) nuclear plants during the European energy crisis. (Note: I misspoke: “Grey” hydrogen would NOT have the CO2 stored, “Blue” would. Both are derived from natural gas.)

I also explain how this massive green hydrogen “fix” to “renewables fundamentalist” policy is a techno-panacea that simply cannot work. Then ..

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Al Ghad/Cairo: Putin tempts Erdogan, “Take Nord Stream gas at a Turkish hub. Sell EU my gas. Forget NATO.” Putin’s ‘Gas Godfather’ games become pathetic.

English: Audio above || Arabic: Video below

Is this even a real proposal? Nowadays, after becoming so unreliable a supplier of gas to Europe, in fact having weaponized Russian gas deliveries, it is difficult for anyone to take this proposal seriously. Erdogan may have many significant problems; however he and Turkey are not so naieve as to do what Germany and Austria forced the European Union to do, i.e., become overdependent on Russian gas, especially given the deep energy crisis Europe is currently going through.

But, also consider this (as I explained towards the end): This proposal of sending Nord Stream gas, originating in Northern Urengoy province, above the Artic Circle, would also require a big, new pipeline laying project, running at least from perhaps near the Ukrainian border south towards the Black Sea and then onto Turkey. This would have a significant cost. And, by the time this could be finished – in perhaps five or more years – the world will have moved on. By that time, new LNG and natural gas production potential in the USA, Qatar, Australia, Algeria, Norway, Israel (sent to Egypt for liquification) and likely many others’, will have been developed and be on the global market. On this time horizon, there would be plenty of diverse sources of gas fully able to replace Russian export capacities.

I also explained the history of the South Stream Pipeline …

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