- How fast can Libyan oil recover? (I’m quoted by CNN) July 21, 2016
- New US tech squeezing oilfields & rivals [IBD quotes me] June 18, 2016
- What’s keeping foreign oil firms out of Iran? IRG? [CNNMoney quotes me] June 17, 2016
- IBD News cites me: OPEC Oil Production Ceiling Reported On Table June 2, 2016
- Don’t write off American oil boom despite OPEC – CNNMoney cites my analysis June 1, 2016
- Latin American Oil: Beijing Still Lending, But for How Long? – I’m quoted by Energy Compass May 31, 2016
- Wikistrat Report “Saudi Arabia & the Future of Oil” cites my views May 29, 2016
- I’m quoted by MarketWatch: Five key issues for OPEC’s June meet May 27, 2016
- Falling oil price & Saudi strategy: My Sky News interview (London) February 12, 2016
- My AQ piece: “Russia Is Beating China to Venezuela’s Oil Fields” February 4, 2016
- “The Road to Paris: COP21 …” Berlin HEEN Conference November 26, 2015
- Bypass Operation: Nord Stream 2, Russia-to-Germany pipeline deal, raises questions October 20, 2015
- Venezuela: Default risks grow (I’m quoted in Platts) September 4, 2015
- Containing Gazprom: Putin may be overplaying his hand on gas – but no thanks to Berlin and Paris August 10, 2015
- A Strange “No!” Alignment: Greeks, IMF and Washington v. Berlin and Brussels July 6, 2015
- MY REPORT | Washington Viewpoints: Assessing Berlin’s Leadership on EU Energy Security July 3, 2015
- US Experts on German & EU Energy Vulnerabilities (My D.C. seminar) June 10, 2015
- The EU-US “Oil Weapon”: Putin’s overtures to OPEC, China & Iran reveal desperation April 23, 2015
- The P5+1–Iran Deal: Obama’s Initial Challenge was to Rally EU-3 Allies to the Cause April 14, 2015
- “US Expert Perspectives on German Energy Vulnerabilities” – My AICGS/Washington Project April 6, 2015
- Paralyzed on Economic Reforms, Venezuela Will Mortgage Citgo [My Americas Quarterly analysis] February 5, 2015
- Oil Price Collaterals: Saudi strategy shakes Russia, Iran & Venezuela, but they’re not targets February 4, 2015
- [Spanish] Mi opinión en Petroquía: China se involucra en los principales proyectos de América Latina January 25, 2015
- Watch: Falling Oil Price & Geopolitics – Saudis & OPEC, Russia, USA, .. | My Real News Network interview December 8, 2014
- My IP JOURNAL article | EU’s “Stress Test” of a Russian gas cutoff: Official optimism? November 22, 2014
- “Venezuela: Petroleum, Politics & Economics in the Post-Chavez Era”–My Columbia U. talk, with Luiz Pinto, 9 October October 2, 2014
- “Oil & the US-Iran Crisis” – My talk at American University, Washington DC: September 30, 2014
- Estoy citado en “Dinero”: La caída en la acción de Ecopetrol de Colombia no se debe únicamente a los ataques guerrilleros September 13, 2014
- My IP Journal latest: “A firm US-EU partnership on Iran came at great cost, and made a deal possible” August 14, 2014
- I’m quoted in WSJ: Why sell Citgo? Cash for Ramirez’ PDVSA-recovery projects August 5, 2014
- My talk on Iran, NYC | After an Iran-USA deal: A Mideast without democracy, run by Iran & Saudi Arabia? May 31, 2014
- USA Oil Seminar 5.0 | USA as Rising Energy Superpower? May 15, 2014
- My IP Journal article | Addressing Europe’s Energy Dependence on Russia: Gas globalization? May 6, 2014
- USA Oil 3.0 | US energy experts on Europe, Russia & Ukraine April 29, 2014
- My AQ piece: Maduro’s Conundrum as UNASUR Starts Venezuelan Peace Talks April 12, 2014
- Venezuelan state’s economic response to protests: Rationing plus Chinese and Russian loans to float a liberal dollar market March 16, 2014
- My DGAP article | Energiewende vs. USA Shale Gas: Can German industry compete? January 22, 2014
- A new syllabus: The USA & the global oil system: The formation of American energy policy January 14, 2014
- Petrobras of Brazil v. Pdvsa of Venezuela – Reply to press interns in Sao Paulo December 1, 2013
- China y América Latina: ¿Quién gana y quién pierde? – Petroguía 2014 (Spanish) November 27, 2013
- For Obama, an Iran deal trumped Syrian aid: USA “core interests” are in “flow of energy” November 16, 2013
- Beijing ups Venezuelan oil investments, but refuses Chavista leaders’ plea for a cash bailout October 10, 2013
- DW in Spanish || Obama y Rouhani: ¿Llegarán a un acuerdo nuclear/petrolífero? October 3, 2013
- AQ Follow-up | Caracas & Maracaibo: Venezuela’s Private Sector Anxious to Invest if PDVSA Builds Confidence September 17, 2013
- My AS/COA piece: PDVSA Post-Chavez: Will Partnerships with the Private Sector and Chinese Experts Boost PDVSA Oil Production? August 29, 2013
- Competing with China in Latin America: Is Germany losing its high-tech advantage? August 20, 2013
- Can Obama & Rouhani End Iranian Nukes+Oil Crisis? – My Beijing press interviews in “Sanlian Lifeweek” August 8, 2013
- My talk: JFK Institute, Berlin: How “The Global Barrel” shapes Washington-EU relations June 8, 2013
- Why is Chinese production in Iraq booming, and in Venezuela lagging? June 4, 2013
- En Espanol: Venezuela’s “Tal Cual” on my al-Naimi post May 16, 2013
Category Archives: Venezuela update
“Venezuela: Petroleum, Politics & Economics in the Post-Chavez Era”–My Columbia U. talk, with Luiz Pinto, 9 October
Here’s my commentary at Americas Quarterly today, 11 April:
A delegation of foreign ministers from the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) returned to Caracas on April 7 and 8, securing an agreement to hold peace talks to calm political polarization and protests in Venezuela. The talks are being mediated by the foreign ministers of Colombia, Brazil and Ecuador, plus a Vatican representative.
The UNASUR delegation first visited in late March, recommending that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and leaders of the opposition’s Mesa de Unidad Democrática (MUD) enter into a dialogue. The U.S. State Department had expressed support, as had Organization of American States (OAS) General Secretary José Miguel Insulza.
However, UNASUR’s plan will be complicated by Maduro’s reliance on paramilitaries within his Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (United Socialist Party of Venezuela—PSUV), whose loyalty requires his polarizing words and deeds. This conundrum already wrecked a previous dialogue.
Venezuelan state’s economic response to protests: Rationing plus Chinese and Russian loans to float a liberal dollar market
As protests continue against Venezuela’s faltering “oil revolution,” the political strategy of the chavista administration is striking for its intransigence. President Maduro has refused to recognize any grievances by students or other protesters. He calls protesters “fascists” and blames them for all the ills of the economy. Protests are attacked by the national guard and often by state-organized paramilitary gangs on motorcycles who are praised by the president.
The administration’s strategy so far appears to be that protests will burn themselves out if they can be delegitimized and contained within middle-class areas. Accordingly, the president’s rhetoric aims at inciting poorer citizens against protesters. All in all, this is a risky strategy. Protests have constantly intensified, with perhaps 25 persons dead now.
After a month of protests, the administration has taken urgent economic measures it hopes will undermine the protests and prevent their spread to poor and working-class barrios.
1. Ramirez announces Chinese and Russian loans and the launch of a very liberal Sicad 2
Back in April, Brazil’s Folha de SaoPaulo ran an article entitled: “The Future of Venezuela Depends on China“ and highlighted this quote: Translation: “If Maduzo wins, he’ll have to regain the confidence of the Chinese.” TOM O’DONNELL, petroleum consultant
Indeed, it is now clear that the short-term strategy of the post-Chavez Maduro-Cabello administration was to escape the country’s severe dollar crisis: convincing Beijing to extend it a $5 billion cash loan alleviating food-import shortages before 8 December elections. In particular, the cash was to fund a new dollar exchange system (see El Nacional,25 Sept 2013). Continue reading
I’m invited to deliver a public lecture Wednesday, 24 April, at 3:30 in New York City at The New School University‘s Graduate International Affairs. This will be a critical examination of the legacy of Hugo Chavez’ “oil socialism” as an “alternative developmental model” for Latin America. Continue reading
The Supreme Court of Venezuela has just made a rather strange decision. Rather than deciding between the two possible scenarios described in the constitution for the case when a president-elect is unable to take the oath of office on the prescribed day of 10 January, they have instead pronounced a third scenario proposed by leaders of Chavez’ party: There is “no temporary absence” of Chavez, and there is “administrative continuity” (i.e., that there is no new administration since he was the previous president).
The decision by the TSJ [press conference 9Jan 2012] seems particularly amazing as it rejects the constitutional option of declaring Chavez “temporarily absent” that would have kept Chavismo in the presidency without an election for 180 days.
This decision is just as transparently un-constitutional and invented as the rationals of the right-wing Honduran military and congress in 2009 for throwing the president out of their country in his pajamas, rather than pressing whatever grievances or charges they had against him within the framework of the constitution. There is a habit growing in Latin America of “democracies” being unwilling to fight out political crises within the sphere of the constitution and the nation’s institutions.
Here’s the situation in Venezuela: The vice-president and acting president, Continue reading