Chaviismo | The Global Barrel

I spoke with Al Jazeera on what we know about this new deal between the US and Venezuela.

Trump’s talk of “ownership” is hype aimed at voters. In reality, he is creating reassuring conditions for US firms hesitant to make the big investments required to recover and grow Venezuela’s enormous extra-heavy oil reserves in the Faja del Orinoco region.

In general, the deal seems to follow the outlines of the new hydrocarbon law passed in January by the chavista controlled (and illegitimate) National Assembly. It seems essentially aimed to assure US and other firms that if they invest to develop Venezuelan oil that the US will protect their investments.

US courts will decide contract disagreements, the US Treasury will handle payments, and the US is encouraging repairs and expansion of the dilapidated national infrastructure the oil sector requires as do the people of the country.

On all this, I highly recommend reading the latest article by my old friend, longtime Venezuelan oil-sector journalist and publisher Elio Ohep. Here is the link: https://energiesnet.com/still-unknown-whats-really-behind-trumps-biggest-oil-deal-in-world-history/

– – Tom O’D.

PS I spent two years in Venezuela researching “The political economy of Venezuelan oil under Chavismo” as a US Fulbright scholar and visiting professor at CENDES (Centro de Estudios del Desarrollo) at UCV (University Central de Venezuela), and returned a number of times.

I am available for keynotes, seminars, consults, commissioned analysis, and on-air expert commentary.

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My Al Jazeera (EN) interview, Interview recorded

I spoke about three issues

-1- How US and other foreign oil firms can start immediately to stepwise developing three different types of oil fields. Yes, Venezuela can become a “powerhouse” oil producer. This could be a huge change in the global oil system.

-2- What is meant when Trump and oil firms talk about USA “security guarantees” for work in Venezuela. The USA government is unlikely to subsidize oil majors going into Venezuela. Instead, they are talking about somehow Washington managing a “regime change.” The KEY element of this is that the present pro-Chavista armed actors, both the state and non-state armed actors and the Chavista-state intelligence services, all of which are widespread in the country, are still intact and are still active, either agree to disband stepwise or to stepdown and not oppose the formation, eventually, of a new government elected freely. The instruments of state armed coercion that will remain, including elements of the police, intelligence services, national guard, army, must agree to serve whomsoever is democratically elected in future elections. However, as Trump himself points out, the foreign oil majors “are tough guys” and they have abundant experience and methods to work in countries having fairly dangerous situations.

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Tag Archives: Chaviismo

My Al Jazeera: Trump’s big Venezuelan oil deal aims to reassure US investors amid political and legal uncertainties. — If successful, it would slash Russia, Iran, OPEC oil leverage, constrain China.

My Al Jazeera| In Venezuela, an oil “security guarantee” means Trump-Rubio get armed Chavismo to disband or stand down.

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