Video: “Dismantling the Petrostate: Moment of Truth for Russian Oil?” | Our EIES Webinar

Here is the video of our 10 Nov. event, organized by EIES (European Institute for Energy Security). Our topic was the turn in US Trump administration policy on ending Russia’s war against Ukraine and the Russian oil sector.

My sincere thanks to EIES, and especially Executive Director Albéric Mongrenier, for inviting me along with distinguished energy and geopolitics experts. (Note: EIES is affiliated with, but policy-independent of, SAFE in Washington).

Our distinguished expert panel included:

• Dr. Jaak Aviksoo, Former Minister of Defence of Estonia, EIES Energy Security Leadership Council
• Christof Rühl, Senior Research Scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, former BP Chief Economist 
• Dr. Thomas O’Donnell, Energy and Geopolitical Strategist and Founder of GlobalBarrel.com 
• Moderated by Rosemary Griffin, OPEC+ Lead Reporter, S&P Global Commodity Insights
• Opened by Peter Flory, Senior Fellow, EIES, Former NATO Assistant Secretary General

A central question we addressed was the turn in the Trump administration policy to apply significant coercive measures against the Russian oil sector to undermine the ability of the Putin government to continue its was in Ukraine. We discussed how effective the new sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil might be and what is the synergistic effect of the Ukrainian drone and missile campaign against Russian domestic refineries and oil export terminal ports.

For an update on expanded attacks on Russian Black Sea oil ports and their meaning, see the written comments accompanying my Kanal24 video interview, posted on Monday, 17 Nov. “The US & Ukraine pound Russian oil | my Kanal24, Kyiv“).

Appendix: MY VIEWS ON RUSSIAN OIL SANCTIONS & ENDING IT’S ROLE AS A PETROSTATE (35 posts during 3 years):

• It is possible for the USA, Ukraine and allies to abandon the failed oil-price cap strategy in favor of real sanctions on Russian oil. Such a policy is now underway.
• The USA could allow and assist Ukraine to hit Russian oil export sea terminals (and refineries internally) to enhance sanctions’ effects.. This has also begun to happen.
• Global oil market conditions are very favorable for removing Russia’s 3.8 million barrels per day (mbd) of seaborne oil exports without causing a great rise in prices or shortages. Now, there is an oil glut.

Here are some of those posts and interviews:

1. My Ukraine Ch24 TV: Seeing Trump can kill his oil sales, Putin asked talks | “Bone-crushing” tariffs on Russian-oil buyers during a market glut can be very effective August 13, 2025
2. My Kyiv Kanal24: Ukraine’s drones hit Russian refineries hard. USA apparently blocks hits on oil ports. Why? August 27, 2025
3. OIL WAR 2025 | Trump & Senate tout “bone-crushing” Russian oil sanctions. Interior Sec. Burgum aims at “permanent” ruin of Russian oil. Energy Sec. Wright sees shale & others replacing Russia.  India & China are being confronted. August 6, 2025
4. Yo en radio en vivo: TRUMP, RUSIA, UCRANIA: ¿PAZ? | Buenos Aires, Londres, Paris, Madrid, Berlin, Sao Paulo, La Paz y Washington (EN transcript added) May 2, 2025
5. My analysis in Newsweek: How Trump can cripple Russian oil, if he decides to April 24, 2025
6. Analysis: Vance saw Zelensky as publicly rearguing an agreed deal |Trump will force or flatter his plan on Ukraine & Russia, as needed March 11, 2025
7. My TVP: To cripple Putin, Trump can sanction oil ports, let Ukraine strike them / Seeking a new North Stream deal is Merkel 2.0; realism is a new, nuclear ‘Green’ Deal February 3, 2025
8. My Asharq-Bloomberg: Ukraine OKs Azerbaijani-only gas transit; Orban & Fico vote Russian sanctions | Trump could crush RU oil if Putin won’t deal January 28, 2025
9. My interview at Lithuania’s LRT: Trump could seriously harm Russia if he wants to | Trumpas, jeigu tik norėtų, galėtų stipriai pakenkti Rusijai January 15, 2025
10. My Briefing Paper for USA House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing, “… Ending Global Dependence on Putin’s Nuclear Energy Sector.” April 29, 2024
11. 1st “Berlin Energy Forum” 21 May | A monthly disruption of the local ‘energy echo chamber.’ April 22, 2024 (Topic was sanctions on Russian oil vs Price cap strategy, etc.)
12. My Sky News: Why is oil up? | If Kyiv hit Russian oil ports, what would happen? April 11, 2024
13. Why USA alarm? [PL/EN] Analityk: Ukraina pokazała, że może zakłócić eksport rosyjskiej ropy przez porty /Analyst: Ukraine has shown it could disrupt Russian ports exporting oil April 2, 2024
14. My Newsweek: 1) Ukraine could hit Russian oil exports-but hasn’t. 2) Gen. Hodges is right–USA stand regrettable. March 30, 2024
15. My DW, VoA & Newsweek interviews: “Ukrainian drones cripple Russian refineries.” Thoughts on strategy, impacts and history March 22, 2024
16. My Kyiv Post Interview: “Russia Lost 12% of Its Oil Refinery Capacity in a Day: What’s the Impact?” March 16, 2024
17. “Is Europe winning the energy war?” Roundtable views: (i) Russian oil-price cap failing; anti-trust tax could help. (ii) Green-energy inflation & subsidies plus low oil & gas development disarm Europe. November 5, 2023
18. “Is Europe Winning the Energy War?” Berlin Energy Roundtable -24 Oct.- Invitation October 15, 2023
19. My SkyNews: Saudis can & will limit oil price before tanking customers’ economies. Russian cap has had impact; but it’s lessening. September 30, 2023
20. My EuroNews-Serbia: Will oil hit $100? Who suffers? Saudis’ market logic. IEA says Q4 tight. Russia oil-price-cap impact.  September 26, 2023
21. My Asharq: Russian oil to India, 40% of imports, ousting traditional suppliers. Borell wanted resale into EU stopped. OPEC: Investments must surge before Q3/Q4 Asian demand-&-price rise. May 23, 2023
22. EU/G7’s Russian diesel price cap is on. Now, as prices rise, Ukraine’s allies can squeeze Putin’s revenues, short of a price spike. Putin’s no longer decides his business terms. February 5, 2023
23. My Asharq: EU & G7 debate Russian oil-products’ caps. Two-caps needed by 5 February. High impact likely later this year. January 29, 2023
24. My DW live: Russia ban on oil sales to price-cap nations has no significant effect. Russia will be selling less oil over time & sanctions complicate shipping insurance. Meanwhile, Ukraine-allies’ price cap encourages India & China to demand lower prices from Russia without officially joining cap. December 28, 2022
25. My Al Jazeera: Putin’s decree banning oil sales under the cap is “a bit of bravado.” – The EU/USA can squeeze Russia by “stepwise lowering the cap” & “bringing other, new oil online.” December 28, 2022
26. My Aljazeera [English] Today’s start: EU sanctions Russian imports & G7-EU price-cap. As USA planned: no market shock. December 5, 2022
27. EU sets $60 Russian-oil-price cap. What now? [My Al Jazeera & Asharq (Blmbrg) interviews] December 4, 2022
28. My Al Jazeera: EU debates where to set Russian oil price cap. Over time this price “will be lowered as [new oil] comes online,” shrinking Russia’s market. “The Americans just don’t want a shock removal.” November 30, 2022
29. My Polish press interview: “Europe can replace Russian oil & gas by 2027” but “in war there are casualties” (Pl. & Eng.) November 29, 2022
30. My Doha talk: Europe’s energy crisis: another front of Putin’s Ukraine War – & the GCC November 13, 2022
31. Kyiv Post: “What to Expect in the Energy War? Interview with Expert Thomas O’Donnell” October 13, 2022
32. My Al Jazeera: Washington picked a pointless, populist fight with the Saudis over OPEC+ cuts October 13, 2022
33. My Sky News: Are EU Measures vs the Russian Oil- & Gas-War Enough? October 5, 2022
34. Financial Times quotes me: Germany embraced Russia’s energy for “strategic balancing” vs USA October 3, 2022
35. JOIN Webinar! – Dismantling the Petrostate: Moment of Truth for Russian Oil? – Mon,10 Nov. November 7, 2025
36. The US & Ukraine pound Russian oil | my Kanal24, Kyiv, November 17, 2025
37. More as what is now “the oil war” evolves. – Tom O’D