At first, we focused on IEA warnings of a possible EU winder gas shortage due to supply-and-demand mismatches. I agree and expand on the IEA points.
Second, I explained that if Israel retaliates against Iran so strongly that it threatens the regimes survival, or is seen as intending to provoke regime change, then the Iranian leadership will have “nothing to lose” by in-turn escalating to the maximum. Aside from unleashing the maximum response of its proxies surrounding Israel, Tehran’s most potent weapon would be to spark a global oil and gas crisis.
Consider oil: Iran can either shut down the Straights of Hormuz (or simply make them unsafe for tankers) and/or, it can use missiles and drones to destroy significant parts of Saudi, UAE and other Gulf oil facilities, including perhaps even Azerbaijan’s as some Iranian propagandists have threatened.
Consider natural gas: Shutting the Straights or directly hitting Qatar’s massive LNG exports infrastructure would immediately stop Qatari LNG exports. As the world’s second largest LNG exporter, this would immediately cause a separate global natural gas crisis.
It is very reasonable to assume that Iran could cause global oil and gas crises. A I briefly indicated in this interview, if the US Navy and allied ships cannot stop Houthi rebel forces — who are not considered to be “high tech” and do not have drone or missile resources of their own — from hitting ships in the Red Sa, for over a year now, we should expect that Iran could do significant and protracted damage to the international oil and gas infrastructure around the Gulf and disrupt tankers from passing through the Straights of Hormuz.
Ii either case, this would be a devastating international oil crisis, which should be of deep concern to the Biden administration..
In public statements, the Biden administration has said it does not want Netanyahu to attack either Iranian oil or nuclear infrastructure, presumable for fear of provoking Iranian retaliation of the nature I cite above.
However, the Biden administration and DC in general, DOES approve, again publicly, Israel striking/retaliating very strongly against Iran. Indeed, most scenarios require both USA defensive and likely offensive capacities in the Region in support of Israel’s coming strikes on Iran.
The “Threshold Question”
It is easy to see that there is a delicate question of threshold here. What quantity of measured Israeli-delivered punishment might the Iranian leadership be willing to absorb, retaliating against in a measured manner … berore Iran suddenly sees these attacks as having stepped beyond a threshold where they becoming something which the regime feels threatens its further existence or Iranian fundamental interests … such that it has “nothing to lose.” Should such a threshold be reached, Teheran will go for its own “nuclear option” against Israel and its USA ally, plunging the global oil and gas sector into crisis.
As I said to Ahmed, the moderator for Al Watan in Cairo, this is a “delicate” matter, an “extremely dangerous” game of tit-for-tat escalation.
It is widely assumed that the USA is not willing to go “that far.” However, many Israeli leaders and elites speak passionately to media of what they see as the necessity of Israel “defeating” all its regional enemies “once and for all.”
What is the limit for Israel? Does it actually want war with Iran, despite the obvious crisis this will provoke for its USA and, in fact, the world? One cannot, in these matters, go by the public statements of any country, either way. My feeling, however, is that the USA does not want to go that far, at least not at present and is acting to support Israel to sharply punish and dissuade Iran from continuing its comprehensive support for its “axis of resistance” around Israel, without threatening the Iranian regime with regime change. In the end, Washington’s preference is to go forward and accomplish the set of new alliances and peace arrangements in the Middle east between Saudi and the <GCC states and Israel, and to force Iran, if possible, to make some sort of accommodation with the Gulf states under this new Regional international system of alliances.
As for Israeli leadership, it knows it risks endless wars with all its surrounding enemies should such a gambit, a full-on war with Iran, not just with its proxies, prove unsuccessful, and that it risks even a severe decline of Israel as a state and society.
On the other hand, the lure for going “all in” for many Israeli leaders, the most religious-nationalist chauvinist elements, is that they think the chance of winning is a good, or as good as it will ever get in consideration of regional demographics plus the likely growth in strength of an undeterred Iran. This extreme grouping wants to at least accomplish the forcible demoralizing and debilitation of all Israel’s present adversaries, setting the tone for a generation hence.
Indeed many Israeli leaders and elites speak in this maximalist manner. However, it seems to me that this is a self-delusional level of hubris as to Israeli military hubris and of ultimate USA dedication to Israel “come what may” (or, better said, “no matter what crises Israel provokes”).
The fact that Israeli leaders, over 70-plus years, have failed to somehow negotiate (with or without violence) a final agreement on the question of the national aspirations and well-beings of the Palestinian and other neighboring Arab peoples is, de facto, a deep, multi-generational political and security failing of the Israeli state project (even though, clearly, it is not their fault alone).
Iran’s Nuclear Program
Briefly, on the nuclear program of Iran. We lacked time to discuss this. However, I can say that, if Israel did succeed in destroying or damaging some of the deep underground Iranian nuclear bomb-fabrication facilities, this would likely be insufficient to prevent Iran making a bomb in the near future.
Some years ago, when I focused in some detail on the US-Iran nuclear confrontation, it was felt by the US side that a successful hit on the program would have to be a surprise attack, as I recall. That is, it would have to succeed in killing a significant number of the top Iranian nuclear scientists and technicians. This, of course, is only possible with a surprise attack hitting them while most are together working at a few locations. Of course, Israel has no such element of surprises at present.
Some references on the IEA Winter 2924 Natural Gas Security Report
IEA – International Energy Agency – IEA Winter gas report
https://www.iea.org/search?q=winter%202025%20gas%20
Global gas balance still ‘fragile’ on limited LNG output growth: IEA | S&P Global Commodity Insights
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/100324-global-gas-balance-still-fragile-on-limited-lng-output-growth-iea
Natural gas demand growth picks up in 2024 amid uncertainties over supply – News – IEA
https://www.iea.org/news/natural-gas-demand-growth-picks-up-in-2024-amid-uncertainties-over-supply
Outlook for MENA LNG exports to European markets | Global LNG Hub
https://globallnghub.com/report-presentation/outlook-for-mena-lng-exports-to-european-markets
IEA report raises concerns possible LNG supply constraints | Global LNG Hub
https://globallnghub.com/report-presentation/iea-report-raises-concerns-possible-lng-supply-constraints
EU LNG price hits 10-month high as it tracks gas gains | Global LNG Hub
https://globallnghub.com/eu-lng-price-hits-10-month-high-as-it-tracks-gas-gains.html
Review of natural gas and LNG price trends | Global LNG Hub
https://globallnghub.com/review-of-natural-gas-and-lng-price-trends-20.html
Winter outlook for global LNG market | Global LNG Hub
https://globallnghub.com/report-presentation/winter-outlook-for-global-lng-market
Map Middle East
https://www.geographicguide.com/asia/maps/middleeast.htm#google_vignette
What countries ship oil via straights of Hormuz- Google Search
https://www.google.com/search?q=what+countries+ship+oil+via+straights+of+hormuy&rlz=1C1CHBF_deDE1078DE1078&oq=what+countries+ship+oil+via+straights+of+hormuy&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIJCAEQIRgKGKABMgkIAhAhGAoYoAHSAQkxMTc1OGowajeoAgCwAgA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
Saudi Arabia’s planned oil production hike threatens Russia’s war economy, Politico reports
https://kyivindependent.com/saudis-planned-oil-production-hike-russia/
(829) Putin’s Nightmare: Sanctions Force India to Abandon Russian Gas – YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ql2OtsBEcV0
Natural gas demand growth picks up in 2024 amid uncertainties over supply – News – IEA
https://www.iea.org/news/natural-gas-demand-growth-picks-up-in-2024-amid-uncertainties-over-supply
Executive summary – Gas Market Report, Q2-2024 – Analysis – IEA
https://www.iea.org/reports/gas-market-report-q2-2024/executive-summary
Global trade in liquefied natural gas continued to grow in 2023 – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=62464
Global LNG trade volume 2023 | Statista
https://www.statista.com/statistics/264000/global-lng-trade-volume-since-1970/
IEA warns geopolitical tensions could mar global gas supply as winter approaches – Nairametrics
https://nairametrics.com/2024/10/04/iea-warns-geopolitical-tensions-could-mar-global-gas-supply-as-winter-approaches/
International Energy Agency warns of gas shortages in Europe this winter
https://brusselssignal.eu/2024/10/international-energy-agency-warns-of-gas-shortages-in-europe-this-winter/
Gas Infrastructure Europe – AGSI
https://agsi.gie.eu/#/
Global Gas Security Review 2024 – Analysis – IEA
https://www.iea.org/reports/global-gas-security-review-2024
Natural gas demand growth picks up in 2024 amid uncertainties over supply – News – IEA
https://www.iea.org/news/natural-gas-demand-growth-picks-up-in-2024-amid-uncertainties-over-supply
The Global Barrel 