Tag Archives: von der leyen

My Alarby [EN]: 30% EU tariff a Trump tactic. Talks go well despite EU weakness. Focus on autos, agriculture & pharma. EU drops digital | Mutual problem is China | Trump persists with Miran’s strategy

My Alarby TV Qatar [English above, Arabic is below] from Berlin Brandenburg Gate studio 12 July.

Summary points: I discussed Trump’s announcement that the USA would impose 30% tariffs on the European Union. (For my “must read” Trump tariff key analysis, see my post “(1)Trump is following Miran’s tariff strategy (2)My reply to Jeff Sachs on USD’s role (3)Tariffs boost EU deindustrialization & (4)turbocharge German auto-crisis (5)Trump’s EU energy-purchase demands” This post keeps getting most hits.)

I focused on context – the global USA strategy here – and the state of EU-USA negotiations. The negotiations are going fairly well with most issues near to being settled. However, it is no secret that Europe is in a very weak geoeconomic position (e.g., see Jamie Diamon’s EU warning, FT) exacerbated by Van der Leyen having “hesitated” (zögern in German) as Trump “escalates.” Euractiv having followed a low-key strategy of detachment from talks, relying on her ever-negotiator, Maroš Šefčovič.

The EU backed down on digital taxes on USA IT firms (Politico) and negotiations are advanced on agricultural, automobile, and pharmaceutical tariffs. These seem the focus now.

Trump had said he’d delay 200% pharma tariffs for a year, but now says a 1 August tariff imposition is likely.

I misspoke on EU agriculture. It’s not that the EU is “famous” for “tariffs” protecting its ag against imports, what it’s actually “famous” for are subsidies for its agriculture, which Trump has targeted as unfair. (Note: the EU’s higher farm subsidies are seen to be a significant factor in lower average EU vs. USA agriculture productivity growth since the early 1990s. See USDA here, esp. from p. 33 .)

I predicted a general settlement will be found before 1 August, and the EU will hold off on retaliatory tariffs to focus on negotiations.

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My Dublin talk: “The role of renewables in securing Europe’s energy” [at EU Commission Representation, Polish Presidency event]

I felt greatly honored to speak in Ireland, the home of my ancestors, at a high-level Irish-Polish event, invited by the Polish embassy as part of Poland’s Presidency of the European Council. [Spoiler alert: my assessment of the Green Deal’s impact on EU energy security and competitiveness was highly critical. And, I called for a radical reform, modeled on the 1970-80’s French Messmer nuclear program, the response to a similarly dire European energy and competitiveness crisis.]

For Ireland we had Secretary General Oonagh Buckley and Wind Energy Ireland CEO Noel Cunniffee; for Poland, Daniel Piekarsky, Head of Energy Security Unit in the Foreign Ministry, and myself, Global Fellow of the Wilson Center, Washington (external) working in Europe, from Berlin.

Our moderator, from the Polish Embassy, Dublin, was the Polish diplomat and patriot, Dr. Jacek Rosa — a good friend, with whom I had the great pleasure of closely collaborating, for several years, in opposition to the Russian-German Nord Stream 2 gas-pipeline partnership, before the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Below is the lineup, the initial invitation and some pictures. The event was off-the-record, so I show here only my own, slightly redacted talk.

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My Al Jazeera: I was asked to assess Pres. Von der Leyen’s proposals on the energy crisis | Sharing hardships fairly is the key to unity.

Just as President Von der Leyen finished her speech, I was asked for an analysis of her proposals to cope with the energy crisis – which Member States’ will meet to approve or reject on 30 September.

EU Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen presented the commission’s plan to address the growing energy crisis before and during the coming winter. Now there will be two weeks of discussions among Member states until their energy ministers gather on 30 September to decide which to endorse.
There will undoubtedly be no price caps on Russian or other natural gas.
There will be liquidity for those energy companies struggling to purchase high-priced gas.
There are measures to decouple the effects, at least, of the coupling of the electricity prices to high natural gas prices in the wake of Putin’s regime cutting its pipeline flows to Europe. The idea here, as I explained, is a sort of “windfall profits taxes” on low-cost energy producers, such as renewables and nuclear, to capture their rents and redistribute them to those citizens and firms struggling to pay energy bills during the crisis.
I explain that this is a wholly appropriate measure during wartime, which is what this is – an economic and energy war vs. Russia to support the Ukrainian people’s fight against Russian aggression.
I was asked, again, as on other networks recently, whether the EU is “divided” on these measures.
I explained how there are absolutely no proposals that the EU (or USA) back down on its sanctions program vs. Russia and esp. vs. Russian energy.
I explained how, despite Orban of Hungary and some similar examples, these have been pretty well handled by the majority of Member states and the Commission and in fact the sanctions and emergency measures have gone forward.
I noted that in two or so years, Russia will be relegated to a second-level energy exporter, and the EU will certainly be able to be independent of Putin’s regime in the energy sector.