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Both Christof Rühl (bio) and Jack Kemp (bio) had great, data-driven media this past week. I too addressed these issues (spoiler: I assess Trump is not bluffing on Iran talks, and oil supply remains adequate.) My conflict-trajectory take differs a bit from Chrisof, perhaps closer to Jack K here.. My Al Jazeera was just after Trump announced talks.
Posted in energy war, Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, Hormuz, Iran, Iran nuclear, negotiations, oil, Oil Crisis, Oil prices, Oil supply, Trump, Uncategorized, USA, War
Tagged Christof Ruhl, Energy, geopolitics, Hormuz, iea, Iran, Iran war, Jack Kemp, John Kemp, negotiations, oil market, oil price, oil sector, Oil supply, Tom O'Donnell interview, Trump
Dear readers, This paper, which I wrote in 2008-09, analyzed the evolution of interests underlying the US-Iran crisis till then, interests which persist in the 2026 US-Iran war.
That is, Trump’s “USA Energy Dominance” strategy does not seek to fundamentally alter the structure or logic of the post-1973 global, market-centered, USA-led-and-protected oil order. However, to preserve it, the USA now feels the necessity of removing the Iranian mullahs as custodians of Iran’s oil for persistently insisting on projecting power and seeking hegemony in the energy-critical Gulf Region.
What is new from 2008, is the bipartisan urgency felt in Washington to renovate the existing oil market-and-security order, reconsolidating the USA as primary arbiter of energy flows via Hormuz to both China and US allied and friendly states of the Indo-Pacific region. In addition, to be capable of significantly blocking Russian oil exports and thereby its petrostate-fueled aggression elsewhere.
In particular, it mush achieve these aims, vis-a-vis Russia and China, without causing global oil shocks. (continued in full-column below …)
Posted in Energy and Geostrategy, geopolitics, Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, Hormuz, Iran, Iran nuclear, LNG,, oil, Oil Crisis, Oil supply, OPEC, Persian Gulf, The USA, U.S. oil, Ukraine war, Uncategorized, USA
Tagged China, Energy, geopolitics, Global Oil System, Gulf states, Iran, Iran nuclear program, Iran war, Israel, Middle East, oil sector, OPEC, Persian Gulf, Political Economy, politics, Russia, Trump, United States, US Energy Dominance
Mar 12, 2026. Is the Iran war about the US containing China? For my part, I explained how control of Hormuz would give the US two key levers:
Posted in China, Energy and Geopolitics, energy war, geopolitics, Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, Hormuz, Iran, Iran nuclear, oil, Oil Crisis, Oil prices, Persian Gulf, Putin, Russia, Trump, Ukraine war, Uncategorized, USA
Tagged China, geopolitics, Hormuz, iea, Iran, Israel, news, oil market, oil sector, oil war, politics, straights of hormuz, taiwan, TRT London, Trump, United States, Venezuela
I was a bit insistent that the spike during the day today, to over $100 at some point, was overblown.
As I mentioned, Fatih Birol at IEA (I forgot to mention also Chris Wright, USA Secretary of Energy),who had said the same thing, insisting last Friday that there is plenty of oil in the market. (See Wright and Bloomberg’s Steven Stapczynski elaborate here). That is NOT a problem now.
And, in the interview, I detailed some facts about this (e.g., before the war started nine days ago, there were about 1.4 billion(!) barrels floating on the water, an unprecedented amount, and the Russians had nowhere to put their unsellable oil).
So, It turns out that late Monday evening news (EST USA time), the news coming from the USA vindicates my suspicions. For now, there is no plan by the administration to release SPR reserves into the market.
Notice what I explained about this likely being a short-lived boost for Russian oil That is, after the Venezuelan campaign, if the Trump admin. Iran campaign works, both China and Russia will be in a very restricted position in the now-USA tightly controlled international oil market supply chain.
Here is the WSJ saying the prices of oil dropped quite a bit, and the stock market rebounded as well by the end of the day. Following that is a Bloomberg take too.
Continue readingPosted in Global Oil Market, Global Oil system, Hormuz, Iran, Oil prices, Uncategorized
Tagged China, economy, Energy, finance, geopolitics, gold, Hormuz, iea, Investing, Iran war, oil sector, OPEC, politics, Russia, SPR, Tom O'Donnell interview, Trump, Ukraine, United States, USA, Venezuela
The Global Barrel 