Mar 12, 2026. Is the Iran war about the US containing China? For my part, I explained how control of Hormuz would give the US two key levers:
- The USA will control half of China’s oil imports, 5.4 million barrels per day (mbd), which flow through Hormuz.
- The USA will insure that during any Pacific war China might start that Iran, acting in solidarity with China, could not block oil flows to US Asian allies such as Japan, S. Korea, Australia, Philippines, or flows to others whose supplies it would also want to guarantee, such as Viet Nam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, etc..
After all, President Xi openly called on the Chinese military to be prepared to retake Taiwan by force by 2027. China – and Iran – should hardly be surprised when Washington took such a declaration dead serious, and moves now decisively to destroy Iran’s capacities to project power in the Persian Gulf ASAP. This includes primarily Iranian missile, drone and mine-laying capacities, but also its potential nuclear capacities.
One can only imagine how difficult it would be for the USA if, in the course of responding to any Chinese Pacific aggression against Taiwan or elsewhere, it had to divert one or two aircraft carriers to reopen the Strait of Hormuz(!).
Indeed, if this is Washington’s worry, it should be expected to finish securing its military control, perpetually, over Hormuz so as to be well prepared for a war with China.
I and others commented on the geopolitical impact for Beijing and Moscow. I very much appreciated the others insights.
Joining TRT moderator Robyn Dwyer:
— Prof. Stephen Chan, Professor of World Politics, SOAS U. of London
— Ian King, Financial Journalist
— Chris Caldwell, CEO of United Renewables
— (me) Dr. Thomas O’Donnell, Energy and Geopolitics Strategist
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, critical oil and gas supplies are unable to pass from the Gulf states to the rest of the world.
Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamene, said in his first address that the Strait of Hormuz was to stay closed to maintain pressure on the US and Israel.
Oil prices surged to a four-year high this week, as the war in Iran sends shockwaves through the global energy market. On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA), ordered a record release of 400m oil barrels from strategic reserves – but did little to bring down prices – as it surged again to over $100 a barrel.
Roundtable is broadcast from London, every weekday at 15:00 GMT on TRT World. This show’s link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fZ88L_aff8
The Global Barrel 