I was interviewed on CNN International’s “Newsroom” with host Kim Brunhuber – live, Friday, 12 Dec. 2025. The transcript is below. Kim asked about Venezuela’s oil industry, the impact of sanctions, what stricter enforcement could do to the Venezuelan economy, and what the US stands to gain if it ultimately gains greater access to the country’s oil reserves? He also wanted to know what Venezuelans are saying. / CNN says: “The show is broadcast around the world on CNN International, and in the US on our new platform All Access.”
Transcript:
0:01 I want to bring in Thomas O’Donnell, an
0:03 energy and geopolitics strategist at
0:05 GlobalBarrel.com. He’s also a former
0:07 visiting professor at the Central
0:09 University of Venezuela and he joins us
0:11 from Berlin. Thank you so much for being
0:13 here with us. Uh so this seizure, a
0:16 clear escalation here. Uh the White
0:19 House says more tanker seizures could be
0:22 coming. If that happens, I mean, what
0:23 would that do to the Venezuelan economy?
0:28 Well, there’s there’s two aspects here.
0:30 Um, of course, if they can’t export any
0:32 oil for a long period of time, this
0:35 would be very difficult for the regime.
0:37 I think what we have here is a problem
0:38 where Trump really wants to get Maduro
0:41 out. He wants to scare him and squeeze
0:43 him. He really doesn’t want to commit
0:46 troops or get involved inside the
0:48 country. It could escalate. Although the
0:50 opposition tells him everything will go
0:52 fine. Don’t worry. Just decapitate the
0:54 regime. So this is another pressure
0:56 tactic, but you know, the regime doesn’t
0:59 care about what the people eat. That’s
1:00 why there’s 8 million refugees since
1:02 Maduro’s been there. So cutting off the
1:05 oil is more pressure, but in the it
1:08 still would take a very long time before
1:11 the regime itself would be squeezed
1:13 enough to in some way uh shake it.
1:16 Yeah. But this does represent a huge uh
1:19 percentage of their income. I think it’s
1:21 what what was it 90% of their foreign
1:23 income comes from oil. I mean, it’s a a
1:25 huge economic blow for the for the
1:27 country, right?
1:29 No, no. I I agree with you. Um, but what
1:32I this is something a fellow who had
1:35 been fired by Chavez in 2000 told me,
1:38″ Look, everyone’s arguing how much oil
1:40 will Pdvsa put out under Chavez, 2.5
1:43 million, 2 million.” He said, “It
1:44 doesn’t matter if they get half a
1:46 million for years, the regime can live,
1:48 and who cares about the people?” And
1:50 that’s what they have done. So, they
1:52 still have gold. They still have, you
1:54 know, they’re not, they don’t care about
1:56 the economy. There is no business class
1:58 that’s independent anymore of the state.
2:01 Everything comes from the state to the
2:03 people unless the people rose up. And
2:05 that is not a path that the opposition
2:08 is willing to take. So I Trump has a
2:11 problem here. How to really force him
2:14 out. I’m sure he’s calling him up and
2:15 threatening him and so forth. I agree.
2:17 It’s a It makes it harder in the long
2:20 run after several months or a year or
2:22 so. It’ll make it harder for Maduro to,
2:25 you know, pay people in the military and
2:27 keep them loyal. Pay the collectivos,
2:29 the armed groups in the that are in the
2:31 barios and so forth that support the
2:33 government. Um, but it it’s yes, but
2:36 there’s a limit to it is what I’m
2:37 saying.
2:38 Right. Okay. So, uh, oil might not be
2:41 the pressure point that the Trump
2:43 administration thinks it might be. Still
2:46 though, critics say this is all about
2:48 oil. It may not be be about seizing oil.
2:51 uh you know seizing oil from Venezuela
2:54 uh but might be opportunities for the US
2:57 in terms of oil exploitation. So if
3:00 there were regime change tomorrow, I
3:03 mean how realistic would it be that
3:05 American oil companies could actually
3:07 ramp up production in any uh meaningful
3:10 way?
3:12Well, first let me make it clear. For 20
3:14years, Chavez and Maduro have said
3:16they’re going to come for our oil. They
3:17said it’s the last Coke, the last
3:19Coca-Cola in the desert, but it’s not
3:20anymore. or we have shale. So there was
3:22no reason that the United States was
3:24going to risk what they would have to
3:26risk to go into Venezuela, which would
3:28be the biggest intervention. I mean,
3:30they have the biggest military and and
3:32capability. It’s not a lot, but they
3:34have the most of any country they’ve
3:35ever invaded in Latin America. So yes, I
3:39think what’s one thing that has changed
3:40here. There are other things, but
3:42finally the United States uh
3:44administration or the United States in
3:46general has some interest in the oil for
3:48the first time in 20 years of Chismo.
3:51And there’s more than one thing here.
3:53The United States right now has a major
3:55campaign together with the Ukrainians.
3:57Aside from all the negotiations with the
4:00Russians we hear about, they’re
4:01squeezing the Russian oil exports.
4:03They’re really squeezing it. the Russ
4:05the Ukrainians are hitting them with
4:06drones with American military
4:08intelligence support and there’s really
4:10tough sanctions. Those barrels have to
4:13be replaced. So the administration
4:15thinks about ah we better think longer
4:17term. Right now there’s a glut in the
4:18market. We can do these things but
4:20there’s not always going to be a glut in
4:22the market. We got to get Venezuela back
4:24online. And I think for the first time
4:25that this administration is thinking in
4:27those terms now there’s other things
4:29that have always been true in the United
4:32States. We’re getting this great amount
4:33of light oil, but the refineries around
4:36the Gulf Coast, where most of ours are
4:37in the United States, are for a heavier
4:40crude that historically came from Latin
4:42America and and old stuff from Texas. So
4:45mixing in Venezuelan oil with that very
4:47light American crude makes the Western
4:49Hemisphere and they also get Canadian
4:51heavier crude. Mixing that in would, you
4:55know, it’s the Trump corollary to the
4:57Monroe doctrine, right? Making the
4:59Western Hemisphere a fortress in and of
5:01itself. self-sufficient and there is
5:03that logic. So for the first time there
5:05are these logics uh where they might
5:08have an interest in going after the oil.
5:10I don’t think they want to pay the price
5:12of making a mistake and going in and
5:14underestimating what needs to be done
5:17like happened in Iraq.
5:20We’ve been hearing
5:22Yeah. Absolutely. To to say the least. I
5:24mean, we’ve been hearing from um um
5:28Venezuela’s main opposition leader uh
5:31who’s who’s generally supported this
5:33idea. I mean, what what are Venezuelans
5:35saying about all of this right now?
5:38Oh,
5:39I mean, I would say overwhelmingly the
5:41vast majority of Venezuelans would they
5:44don’t care how Maduro goes. And in the
5:47first administration, remember Trump and
5:49Bolton gave this idea, oh, we might do
5:52regime change. Now they had no intention
5:54of doing anything on the ground but when
5:56there was interviews inside Venezuela by
5:58reputable you know interviewers it was
6:00something like 90% of the people said
6:02whatever just get rid of them because
6:04people are starving people are
6:05immigrating right now so there’s that.
6:09Now on the other hand, if you talk to
6:10military experts who go through the way
6:13the regime keeps itself in power, um all
6:17these ways of keeping loyalty, people
6:19spying on each other, the Cubans in
6:21charge of security, all these different
6:23military apparatuses, it might not go
6:26that way. So the Venezuelans
6:28overwhelmingly will say just come and
6:30knock out Maduro and everything will be
6:32fine. We’re all with you. Uh that might
6:36very well be true. um whether that’s
6:39legal or not but that might very well be
6:40true and they feel like Trump was their
6:42liberator I have to say but it might not
6:45go that way there might be terrorism
6:46from prochevista groups there might be
6:48sabotage there’s many armed groups and
6:50burios that are dependent on the state
6:53will the state be able to feed the
6:54people in the months after a regime
6:56change because all the food basically
6:58comes through state channels so this is
7:01the conundrum some Venezuelans see the
7:03problematized side the opposition
7:06absolutely does that they’re I’m just
7:08saying I respect the opposition. They
7:10fight hard, but their whole thing for 20
7:12years they were not going to organize
7:14uprisings in the street that would
7:16themselves bring down the government.
7:18It’s always been wait for the Americans.
7:20They will come through external pressure
7:22to liberate us basically.
7:25We’ll have to leave it there, but really
7:27appreciate getting your expertise on
7:29this. Thomas O’Donnell, thank you so
7:30much for speaking with us.
7:32Thanks for having me.
The Global Barrel 