Xi Jinping has still not built China’s domestic market to escape its trade-war vulnerabilities from over-dependence on exports, a weakness he openly discussed back in February 2012 on his USA tour before becoming premier.
For the USA, Trump had apparently planned to have resolved the Ukraine war and in some way undermined the Russia-China alliance, inducing Russia to move closer to the USA before going after China. But, ending the war has proven far more difficult than he anticipated. His lack of success with Russia will weigh on his ability to negotiate from a position of strength with all the countries he is competing to win away from China’s geoeconomics orbit such as India, Viet Nam, Cambodia, Philippines, Thailand and etc. — the states that Treasury Secretary would say are in the “yellow zone” as opposed to the USA#s closest allies such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, in the so-called “green zone.” For details – see this post on my blog,
Upcoming posts: .
- My interviews about what Trump COULD do to devastate Russian oil exports. The global market is handing Trump the capacity to do this without spiking international prices…. but, will he turn to coercion as Putin digs in and avoids making any reasonable deal to end the Ukraine war
- My Spanish-language Easter Sunday Clarin syndicated live interview on: Will Trump turn from enticements to coercion to force Putin to end the war in Ukraine? How does this fit into Trump’s global strategy vs. China. I’ll post audio and transcript/translation.
Best, Tom O’D. (back in Berlin from Poznan, Poland)
The Global Barrel 