Strait Talk with host Aisha-Aura Sbadus @suberker in Istanbul. My co-panelist was Tom Marzec-Manser @tmarzecmanser Head of Gas Analytics at @ICISOfficial
We discussed scenarios for how the EU energy crisis might go in a new Russian war against Ukraine, and the significance of USA President Biden designating Qatar as a “major non-NATO ally.”
In particular, we discussed how much could Qatari LNG be made available and what its impact would be alongside the massive US LNG deliveries so far this year.
Russia has cut its pipeline flows to Europe this season by about one-third and European storage remains dangerously low. The EU hasn’t properly prepared. It has no strategic gas reserve (SGR) system, and – as I said on the show – this is but the latest of many “wake up calls” which it has largely ignored, including previous Russian gas interruptions in 2006, 2009 and 2014-15. In particular, in spite of these crises, German governments have consistently pursued their partnership with Russia to build the Nord Steam 2 pipeline, as a detour for Russian gas from having to transit Ukraine to reach European markets. This has helped to hand Moscow the advantage it now enjoys over Europe in energy.