I was a bit insistent that the spike during the day today, to over $100 at some point, was overblown.
As I mentioned, Fatih Birol at IEA (I forgot to mention also Chris Wright, USA Secretary of Energy),who had said the same thing, insisting last Friday that there is plenty of oil in the market. (See Wright and Bloomberg’s Steven Stapczynski elaborate here). That is NOT a problem now.
And, in the interview, I detailed some facts about this (e.g., before the war started nine days ago, there were about 1.4 billion(!) barrels floating on the water, an unprecedented amount, and the Russians had nowhere to put their unsellable oil).
So, It turns out that late Monday evening news (EST USA time), the news coming from the USA vindicates my suspicions. For now, there is no plan by the administration to release SPR reserves into the market.
Notice what I explained about this likely being a short-lived boost for Russian oil That is, after the Venezuelan campaign, if the Trump admin. Iran campaign works, both China and Russia will be in a very restricted position in the now-USA tightly controlled international oil market supply chain.
Here is the WSJ saying the prices of oil dropped quite a bit, and the stock market rebounded as well by the end of the day. Following that is a Bloomberg take too.
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The Wall Street Journal What’s News Oil Prices Offer Up a Stunning Reversal By Zlati Meyer This is an edition of the What’s News newsletter, … free … 1.
In a wild day in markets, oil fell back below $90 and the Dow swung higher after being down almost 900 points. Stocks rallied and oil fell after CBS News reported that President Trump said the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran was “very far ahead of schedule” and “very complete, pretty much.”
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, had surged overnight, hitting its highest intraday level since mid-2022. The U.S. benchmark dropped to about $85 a barrel, after surging above $119 earlier. The Dow industrials rose 239 points after being down almost 900 points in early trading. Meanwhile, Iran’s new leader Mojtaba Khamenei is already a marked man. Follow all the news and analysis here.
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And, this from Bloomberg too:
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US Has No Immediate Plan to Tap Oil Reserve on Iran Concerns
By Ari Natter March 3, 2026
Takeaways by Bloomberg AI:
– The Trump administration has no immediate plans to release oil from the nation’s emergency reserve in response to surging crude and gasoline prices.
– The Energy Department’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve currently holds about 415 million barrels, or a little more than half of its roughly 700 million-barrel capacity.
– A decision to tap the reserve could help stanch price spikes, at least temporarily, and any move to release oil would likely be coordinated with nations that belong to the International Energy Agency. The Trump administration has no immediate plans to release oil from the nation’s emergency reserve in response to surging crude and gasoline prices in the wake of the Iran conflict, according to a person familiar with the situation.
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The Global Barrel 