Last night, Asharq, the Mideast Bloomberg news affiliate, asked me three questions (roughly translated):
- The the EU wants to extend the sanctions (on Russian gas), at the same time they want to open open the Russian pipeline through Ukraine. What is this contradiction? How to understand it in practise?
- How will Ukraine respond to these talks? Don’t you think that Ukraine will accept, for example, to open this project or to reopen these pipelines to resupply gas? Don’t you think the other European nations that were impacted neglecting or abandoning this Russian gas?
- Doctor, don’t you think that there has been a change in US policies, economic and political policies towards Russia after the reelection of Trump? Do you think we may see a change?
Here is a transcript of the Q&A (AI generated)
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are joined by Doctor Thomas Odoner. From
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Berlin. Welcome back, Doctor. Happy to
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have you with us tonight. So the EU
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wants to extend the sanction on
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Russia and at the same time they want to
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open the Russian pipeline through
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Ukraine. What is this contradiction?How
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to understand it in practice
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in Europe?Well, thank you for having me
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again, Anna Sharika.
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Well, yes, it it is an apparent
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contradiction. I think the best way to
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Well,
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understand this is to understand thatthank
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while the majority of states in the
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European Union support Ukraine and do not
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want to continue taking Russian gas,you
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they’ve promised by 2027 to have no more
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Russian gas at all. They’re close to
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for having
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that. At the same time, as everybody
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me again
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knows, there’s a a few states, two or
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on the show.
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three states that seem very sympathetic
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to Putin, and at the same time
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they’ve had three years. Hungary
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and Slovakia, in this case I’m
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particularly talking about, had three
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years to find other sources of gas
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when the gas was shut off through Ukraine
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from Russia. And you know, they obviously
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were not satisfied with that and are
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demanding cheap gas from Mr. Putin and
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are threatening to throw a monkey wrench
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into the whole works of the support for
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Ukraine. So the EU is forced to deal with
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these two countries.
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How will Ukraine respond to
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these talks?Do you think that Ukraine
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will accept, for example, to open this
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project or to reopen these
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pipelines to resupply gas?Don’t you
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think that the other EuropeanYes, no,
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nations were economically
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there’simpacted,
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noneglecting or abandoning this
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Russian gas?Yes.
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No, there’s no doubt that Europe,
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doubt that your.
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all of Europe, everybody who consumes
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natural gas, which is essentially
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everybody, has been deeply affected by
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the loss of Russian gas. The European
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Union was over dependent on Russian gas,
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especially this was a matter that, you
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know, Germany advocated together with
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Austria, especially buying huge amounts
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of Russian gas, the Americans.
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Republicans and Democrats alike and a
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number of Eastern European countries,
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especially Poland and others and the
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Baltic states and the Nordic states
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warned that this would be used against
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Europe in the long run when Putin would
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cut this off. And we should remember Nord
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Stream One, which is the main source of
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huge amount of gas coming into Europe
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after the war began. When the war began,
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40 percent, 45% actually of
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Europe’s imported gas, it was Putin who
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cut that off. Now we’re talking about the
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dregs, the little leftover that was
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flowing through this pipeline and that.
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And yes, it’s going to be
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if you ask me also, what will Ukraine, I
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think you’re asking me what Ukraine will
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think about this. Ukraine has said, and
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Zelensky made this clear a couple days
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ago, and that’s why these negotiations
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are happening. It is OK with Ukraine
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to transit gas from Azerbaijan through
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Russia, through Ukraine to these
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countries. He’s happy to do it. And
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satisfy them. So they vote for the
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sanctions and continue their support. Mr.
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Orban in Hungary and Mr. Fiko in
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Slovakia. However, he should not be
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Russian gas. Why should they help the
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Russians profit off gas when they’ve
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invaded their country?So it has to be
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Azeri gas. And that’s going to be a
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little bit difficult because everybody
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knows Azerbaijan doesn’t really have
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enough gas to do this. So that’s a a
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further story.
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Do you think, Doctor, that we’ll see
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a certain change in U.S. economic and EU
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economic policies toward Russia
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after the re-election of Trump?Do you
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think that we may see a change?Well,
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Well, you know, I think anybody who
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you know, I think anybody who tries to
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tries to.
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predict the very particular steps Trump
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will take, you’re likely
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to fail. You have to stand back and see
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what he’s up to long term. Part of
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Trump’s strategy. He was a real
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estate negotiator in New York City
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and and his he he will tell you his art
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of the deal is always to keep the other
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side off balance, to seemingly change
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his strategy radically. And so we can’t
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pay attention to these details. What we
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should look at is that he’s
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promised to end this war. He thinks the
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America, America, United States being
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involved in overseas wars like this
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doesn’t. Isn’t beneficial to the United
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States. He wants to see it ended. Now,
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Mr. Zelensky has worked hard to try to
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talk to Trump, and it seems like
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so far he’s gotten pretty much on Trump’s
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good side. And Trump has pretty much been
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saying, you know, Zelensky’s willing to
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talk. Zelensky’s willing to make a deal.
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Mr. Putin, you’ve got to make a deal. Now
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I would say Putin’s not going to make a
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deal. He’s he’s going to push on
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and try and get his maximum,
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maximal. Program against Ukraine.
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He wants to win the war. Now if he
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makes Trump look bad, which this will
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make Trump look bad, then Trump can
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really hurt Russia. We could talk about
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that. There’s things he could do with
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upping the sanctions on oil
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especially that could really hurt Russia.
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And that it’s possible that that could
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happen.
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Thank you very much, Doctor Thomas
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O’Donnell. Always a pleasure having you
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until next time. And meanwhile, take
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care. Thank you. Thank you very much.
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Good night.
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