My Alarby TV Qatar [English above, Arabic is below] from Berlin Brandenburg Gate studio 12 July.
Summary points: I discussed Trump’s announcement that the USA would impose 30% tariffs on the European Union. (For my “must read” Trump tariff key analysis, see my post “(1)Trump is following Miran’s tariff strategy (2)My reply to Jeff Sachs on USD’s role (3)Tariffs boost EU deindustrialization & (4)turbocharge German auto-crisis (5)Trump’s EU energy-purchase demands” This post keeps getting most hits.)
I focused on context – the global USA strategy here – and the state of EU-USA negotiations. The negotiations are going fairly well with most issues near to being settled. However, it is no secret that Europe is in a very weak geoeconomic position (e.g., see Jamie Diamon’s EU warning, FT) exacerbated by Van der Leyen having “hesitated” (zögern in German) as Trump “escalates.” Euractiv having followed a low-key strategy of detachment from talks, relying on her ever-negotiator, Maroš Šefčovič.
The EU backed down on digital taxes on USA IT firms (Politico) and negotiations are advanced on agricultural, automobile, and pharmaceutical tariffs. These seem the focus now.
Trump had said he’d delay 200% pharma tariffs for a year, but now says a 1 August tariff imposition is likely.
I misspoke on EU agriculture. It’s not that the EU is “famous” for “tariffs” protecting its ag against imports, what it’s actually “famous” for are subsidies for its agriculture, which Trump has targeted as unfair. (Note: the EU’s higher farm subsidies are seen to be a significant factor in lower average EU vs. USA agriculture productivity growth since the early 1990s. See USDA here, esp. from p. 33 .)
I predicted a general settlement will be found before 1 August, and the EU will hold off on retaliatory tariffs to focus on negotiations.
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